CT Rain Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 NAM is still adamant about tornado risk in NE PA, N NJ, NY / CT. It certainly is. Hodographs look more impressive this run. Issue may be getting discrete convection before the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Interesting...certainly something to watch then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Given the morning MCS remnants and some outflow boundaries meandering about I would expect some discrete convection in the afternoon developing over the Poconos/Catskills then moving east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 It certainly is. Hodographs look more impressive this run. Issue may be getting discrete convection before the line. As Paul mentioned earlier, I could see something along an old boundary / gradient leftover from MCS. Everyone's LCL heights looked improved too, especially down this way. Well guys, what more can be said? Now we watch this MCS drop in and watch the media call it a derecho no matter what it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Dr. Forbes gives us a TORCON of 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormDude81 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I am starting to think the tornado threat might be more widespread from OH to PA to NY/N NJ/W CT/MA could we possibly be looking at a high risk tomorrow for somewhere?, it's possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 As Paul mentioned earlier, I could see something along an old boundary / gradient leftover from MCS. Everyone's LCL heights looked improved too, especially down this way. Well guys, what more can be said? Now we watch this MCS drop in and watch the media call it a derecho no matter what it does. Agreed. I wish I saw some of our hires mesoscale models develop convection prior to the main line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Agreed. I wish I saw some of our hires mesoscale models develop convection prior to the main line. I wonder if it's b/c the models are slower to clear us out? We really don't crank the instability here until after 18z or so but if we clear out quicker and destabilize faster that would erode llvl CIN faster and possibly lead to development? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Dr. Forbes gives us a TORCON of 4 He also gave us a DERCON of 8 tonight, and 9 tomorrow afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 0-1km EHI values approach 3-3.5 by late afternoon with 0-3km EHI values approaching 6-7!!! That is pretty serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I am starting to think the tornado threat might be more widespread from OH to PA to NY/N NJ/W CT/MA could we possibly be looking at a high risk tomorrow for somewhere?, it's possible The mod risk is for wind.. So if there was more tornado risk probably not unless it was way more which seems hopeful at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormDude81 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Greg Forbes TOR CON of 4 seems to be conservative, well first off these systems are much harder to pin point the best threat with many variables, and it's the Northeast and Mid Atlantic, not the Great Plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 He also gave us a DERCON of 8 tonight, and 9 tomorrow afternoon Wowzers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Do they really have a dercon? That would awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 TORCON of 4 is pretty damn impressive...that's 40% chance of a tornado within 50 mi of a point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Well all the ingredients are there tomorrow. Now we just need to see what happens with the morning MCS, amount of destabilization behind it, and whether or not we see convective initiation in front of the main line 18z-21z. Models look a little meh with the latter so that makes me wonder if tornado threat decreases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 any discrete cells in this environment will perform... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Wowzers Do they really have a dercon? That would awesome. Just a really terrible joke on my part...i wouldnt be surprised if they created one though at the rate that god damned word has been tossed around since June 29th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Greg Forbes TOR CON of 4 seems to be conservative, well first off these systems are much harder to pin point the best threat with many variables, and it's the Northeast and Mid Atlantic, not the Great Plains ... what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Even if the discrete aspect fails, the main line will be extremely intense with embedded tornadoes anyway. The strengthening low and mid level jet, CVA and impressive instability will lead to an amazing evening show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 ... what? I lost strength hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Even if the discrete aspect fails, the main line will be extremely intense with embedded tornadoes anyway. The strengthening low and mid level jet, CVA and impressive instability will lead to an amazing evening show. Agreed. Tornado threat here climatologically is quite low after 00z but the line will probably be quite intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Well all the ingredients are there tomorrow. Now we just need to see what happens with the morning MCS, amount of destabilization behind it, and whether or not we see convective initiation in front of the main line 18z-21z. Models look a little meh with the latter so that makes me wonder if tornado threat decreases. Not to poo poo it as it looks plenty impressive should it be tapped but in most cases I think you'd want the trough to be a bit further east to collocate everything a bit better during prime time. I have not looked at particulars but the MCS can obviously hurt as much as help. I dunno if the convergence near the front alone is enough to fire things that might become discrete. Having to wait for the main line is probably more normal than getting a tornado outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Holy shiaat wish I could get out to w ct tomo. Enjoy be safe chasers . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Not to poo poo it as it looks plenty impressive should it be tapped but in most cases I think you'd want the trough to be a bit further east to collocate everything a bit better during prime time. I have not looked at particulars but the MCS can obviously hurt as much as help. I dunno if the convergence near the front alone is enough to fire things that might become discrete. Having to wait for the main line is probably more normal than getting a tornado outbreak. Agreed. Lack of discrete activity and late arrival (post 00z) of activity is my biggest concern about this thing underperforming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I lost strength hours ago. Haha...you've been cracking me up today..the response to the "rare morning MCS" post was pure comedy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Even if the discrete aspect fails, the main line will be extremely intense with embedded tornadoes anyway. The strengthening low and mid level jet, CVA and impressive instability will lead to an amazing evening show. Yeah it seems like so many people are trying to get excited about tornadoes while the night show could be awesome. I'd rather look forward to that since hoping for tornadoes is like wishing 6-12" of powder for Charleston SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Agreed. Lack of discrete activity and late arrival (post 00z) of activity is my biggest concern about this thing underperforming. The NAM solution verbatim is not a total loss. There is a definitely a formidable gradient over E NY and W CT and it definitely hints at the potential for a discrete cell or two before the main show. I think Paul is correct in suggesting that the CIN / destabilization issue could be why the NAM shows a lack of development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Just a really terrible joke on my part...i wouldnt be surprised if they created one though at the rate that god damned word has been tossed around since June 29th Actually it wasn't that bad of a joke...I laughed when I realized you were joking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Haha...you've been cracking me up today..the response to the "rare morning MCS" post was pure comedy lol We need to keep our spirits high before the apocalypse tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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