moneypitmike Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 7pm Box update on MCS: 7 PM update... High cloud shield from advancing mesoscale convective system is working its way into southern New England this evening. Winds have diminished across most of area and combination of increasing clouds and dry airmass will prevent fog formation inland tonight. 18z models still uncertain as to where mesoscale convective system will track overnight. GFS keeps it north across Vermont/New Hampshire while NAM shows more of a southern track into more of CT/RI/MA. Latest 3km hrrr seems to mirror NAM and may even be farther S. Should be approaching our area toward 4 am Thursday. Ignorant question--but would this suggest that the front itself sets up further south and correspondingly pushes the severe threat further south? Sounds like a good day to be in Fairfield/Westchester counties. Congrats! Looking forward to mostlly stratiform in GC if I'm reading things right.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Maybe some mixing with snow at the end, but probably mostly rain. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Maybe some mixing with snow at the end, but probably mostly rain. Another GFS rip and read ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Maybe some mixing with snow at the end, but probably mostly rain. pingers mixed in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 pingers mixed in You guys are not being nice to the new guy much.... To Coventry - there's 17 pages of posts about tomorrow, and the "how much for me" posts often get ignored at best. I'm mostly a lurker, so take my thoughjs as you will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 You guys are not being nice to the new guy much.... To Coventry - there's 17 pages of posts about tomorrow, and the "how much for me" posts often get ignored at best. I'm mostly a lurker, so take my thoughjs as you will. lol was not picking on him at all. Workday is almost over here and I was just going for the worst joke of the thread award Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 You guys are not being nice to the new guy much.... To Coventry - there's 17 pages of posts about tomorrow, and the "how much for me" posts often get ignored at best. I'm mostly a lurker, so take my thoughjs as you will. It goes back to some of our winter discussions, Was not directed at any one person, I will be more then content with the rain possibilty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 lol was not picking on him at all. Workday is almost over here and I was just going for the worst joke of the thread award lol - I know there's no hard feelings here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 That Lakes action is going beserk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Few thoughts: 1. Wish I could be chasing tomorrow, but Thursday's are the day that I intern for Matt Noyes at NECN....not a bad trade off. 2. 18Z NAM really pushes the warm front north to like the MA/NH&VT border by 00Z tomorrow. (evidences when looking at the theta-e plots) 3. Seriously thinking that this event could continue on after dark. NAM has been hitting portions of SNE pretty hard into the overnight. From BOX: CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LLJ INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA COMBINED WITH THE HIGHLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. EXPECT THE THREAT WILL TRANSITION TO STRONG DAMAGING WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. 4. I know finer details can be examined, but all of SNE has a chance tomorrow. 5. Will be very interesting to see where the warm front is by noon tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 That Lakes action is going beserk. Tor warning for one of those cells Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 That Lakes action is going beserk. No kidding. Looks like central MI was just upgraded to a MDT risk in the latest SPC day 1 outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 No kidding. Looks like central MI was just upgraded to a MDT risk in the latest SPC day 1 outlook Not surprised. That's going to hammer Ontario and W NY. It should start to fall apart by ROC though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I got a chuckle out of the SPS from BUF too. Talked about the possibility of "an actual derecho." If you need to use the qualifier "an actual" then maybe the term is being tossed around a little too liberally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I got a chuckle out of the SPS from BUF too. Talked about the possibility of "an actual derecho." If you need to use the qualifier "an actual" then maybe the term is being tossed around a little too liberally. LOL that's great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Tor warning for one of those cells Hopefully not to cause a a Dangerous situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Very impressive on the Gaylord radar now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Ryan...are you gonna write a blog post tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Ryan...are you gonna write a blog post tonight? Already did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 No hard feelings here, I should have phrased my comment better by stating that it's possible to have more of a rain event here at home as opposed to a severe weather outbreak as is expected in Western Connecticut. I ask as my wife is having heart trouble and I have to shuttle her back and forth from Hartford Hospital tomorrow for tests and I want to try to avoid the worst of the weather.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Any chance of anything for us eastern folk? Friday seems to be better for us from what I've read, but things are far from settled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Already did. On mobile, its a pain. I'll look, my bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 No hard feelings here, I should have phrased my comment better by stating that it's possible to have more of a rain event here at home as opposed to a severe weather outbreak as is expected in Western Connecticut. I ask as my wife is having heart trouble and I have to shuttle her back and forth from Hartford Hospital tomorrow for tests and I want to try to avoid the worst of the weather.. morning or mid-day is your best bet before the heaviest stuff--good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 Could be the genesis of the mentioned derecho/MCS GIVEN THE DEGREE OF MEAN FLOW...CONTINUED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION...AND ANTICIPATED STORM-SCALE MERGERS...THE OVERALL SCENARIO APPEARS TO BE VERY CONDUCIVE FOR UPSCALE/QUASI-LINEAR GROWTH AND THE DEVELOPMENT/ACCELERATION OF A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM/BOW ECHO TONIGHT. THE MOST INTENSE DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY TO BE FOCUSED NEAR/JUST NORTHEAST OF THE WARM FRONT. WITH THE ANTICIPATED UPSCALE GROWTH/MATURATION OF AN MCS...SWATHS OF WIND DAMAGE MAY MATERIALIZE ACROSS CENTRAL/PERHAPS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST LOWER MI DURING THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES ELONGATED/INCREASINGLY ORIENTED NORMAL TO THE MEAN WESTERLY FLOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 This is pretty damn beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 NAM is late... keeps convection out of SNE until at least 21z... gets to CT river valley by 00z. Still very impressive combination of low level shear/instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 NAM is late... keeps convection out of SNE until at least 21z... gets to CT river valley by 00z. Still very impressive combination of low level shear/instability. Awesome...that's what I want to hear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Awesome...that's what I want to hear. Well it doesn't appear to develop any convection outside of the main line. Not saying it's right but something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Awesome...that's what I want to hear. Most of the severe weather comes from the line or derecho... no real discrete cells that I see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 NAM is still adamant about tornado risk in NE PA, N NJ, NY / CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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