Bostonseminole Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Leaving tomorrow around 11ish for Scranton, PA, or possibly Binghamton. I'll give you guys updates as whatever forms comes NE at ya's. should we set up an obs thread for those chasing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 The term has been tossed around quite a bit since the DC event, and the East Coast public is really just starting to hear and recognize the word because of it. I think part of why he may be saying it is because people understand that it means big wind is possible tomorrow. The definition really is that it is producing nearly continuous wind or wind damage for over 240 miles. Not scattered severe wind, or taking a brief break before reorganizing. It's odd though..If he mentioned it was possible in the afternoon/evening..that would make much more sense..but for a derecho to occur on the cool side of the warm front initially seems almost impossible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 The term has been tossed around quite a bit since the DC event, and the East Coast public is really just starting to hear and recognize the word because of it. I think part of why he may be saying it is because people understand that it means big wind is possible tomorrow. The definition really is that it is producing nearly continuous wind or wind damage for over 240 miles. Not scattered severe wind, or taking a brief break before reorganizing. Yeah I think something afternoon/evening is possible... but down here I'm not expecting severe convection prior to 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 He may not have been looking as closely... I'm not sure. While morning convection is possible... everything that I've seen indicates it will be sub severe. it looks like widespread waa crap to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 25, 2012 Author Share Posted July 25, 2012 18z NAM just called and mentioned it's time to take Toto out for a walk - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 it looks like widespread waa crap to me Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 It's odd though..If he mentioned it was possible in the afternoon/evening..that would make much more sense..but for a derecho to occur on the cool side of the warm front initially seems almost impossible Right, without the environment already in place, the only way parts of the Northeast get in on a derecho tomorrow morning is a couple wind reports on the dying end of a Midwestern event. A long lived decaying MCS does not equal derecho, but it's fun to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Agreed Do we get racing in at Thompson Speedway tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 notice the surface convergence and subtle area of backing over sny/s ct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 18z NAM bumped the WF a little northeast. Tongue of high surface theta-e punching into western CT. But the strongest SRH is now displaced further east/north with the front. Instability and shear seem a little more out of phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 18z NAM bumped the WF a little northeast. Tongue of high surface theta-e punching into western CT. But the strongest SRH is now displaced further east/north with the front. Instability and shear seem a little more out of phase Looks to me like the same areas in CT are looking at problems on teh 18z NAM. Expecting locally backed winds to enhance SRH across a portion of the Hudson Valley east toward HFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 BOX disco not quite as good as ALB's breakdown was SINCE MODELS KEEP PUSHING THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD...REGIONS DOWN SOUTH INCLUDING CT/RI AND WESTERN MASS WILL SIT IN A HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. MLCAPES ARE BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR RANGES FROM 40-50 KTS...GOOD INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP. AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD IN THE LATE AFTERNOON EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP...AROUND 3-5PM. THESE STORMS MAY BE ISOLATED IN NATURE AT FIRST PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. AGAIN THE BEST REGIONS WILL BE ACROSS CT/WESTERN RI AND WESTERN MASS...SOUTH OF THE PIKE...WHERE THE BEST CLEARING WILL OCCUR. STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AS THE DAY GOES BY EXPECT A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS AS WELL WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. LAST THREAT IS FLASH FLOODING AS PWAT VALUES DO REACH ABOVE 2 INCHES. DUE TO NUMEROUS NATURE...CANNOT RULE OUT TRAINING ALONG STORMS. OVERNIGHT THURSDAY... CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LLJ INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA COMBINED WITH THE HIGHLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. EXPECT THE THREAT WILL TRANSITION TO STRONG DAMAGING WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL UNCERTAIN ON EXACT LOCATION BUT BELIEVE STORMS WILL BE WIDE SPREAD AND QUITE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE REGION...ESP SOUTH OF THE PIKE. FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL REMAIN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 cape is fat and deep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 cape is fat and deep Hmmmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 mod risk... 45% hatched from CT Valley points west. You need to include a northern border on your description as the river heads up to Canada. Wow mod risk for all. This is what we live for. Wx extremes Risk for all; fun for some. I guess if the greatest Severe Threat is CT River valley west, then what can we expect east of the river?? Blizz will double his .04" from this week. Seriously though--looks like some good times for folks in the SW zones! Not sold on anything further north. If nothing else, some more rain will be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Just want to clarify something... With a mid/u/a speed max rolling through the flow along and N of the warm boundary overnight there could just a likely evolve a general zone of isentropic lift related rains with embedded elevated convection. That would much less related to derechio kinematics. Derechios tend to develop and then cross into warm sectors to the right. Typically the day preceding them is hot/torrid already. This different than that. When I reached that part in bold...I knew it was a Tip post... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I should be excited, but right now I am legitimately worried. about severe fail or damage sounds like a good day for a chase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 TWC and Accu don't know what a derecho is. They proved that yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 the potential for a derecho is there... it comes down to mesoscale details in the very near term Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 TWC and Accu don't know what a derecho is. They proved that yesterday. You have no idea. AccuCrap Pro had their newsfeed spammed with all sorts of 'derecho' garbage. Sent from my 4G 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 the potential for a derecho is there... it comes down to mesoscale details in the very near term Yeah potential in the afternoon... not the AM like some were saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 GFS still far north with overnight MCS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 derecho usually comes after the hot air is in place right? So how could there be one tomorrow AM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 derecho usually comes after the hot air is in place right? So how could there be one tomorrow AM? There won't be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Yeah potential in the afternoon... not the AM like some were saying. You think getting out of work at 3 is early enough? You wanna chase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 You have no idea. AccuCrap Pro had their newsfeed spammed with all sorts of 'derecho' garbage. Sent from my 4G 2 it sorta seems there is no super hard definition but accepted papers also have 3 reports of 75 mph+ as a requirement over some fairly large distance. today accu had a tweetfest showing off they don't know what one is. it seems they and twc have made at least a semi calculated decision that "warning" is worth overstating. in a number of cases you probably need somewhat extensive post-event analysis to declare it one.. others are obviously apparent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 There won't be yeah.. thatthreat seems with the late day squall crossing pa toward the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 edit was answered. derecho threat would be in pm ...thx still seems odd that forbes would mention am threat of one then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 re: AccuWx / TWC throwing the D word around again, let's not forget this call, July 7: Dr. Greg Forbes @DrGregForbes A derecho (widespread thunderstorm damaging wind event) could drive from north-central to southeast PA, NJ, MD, DE thie afternoon, evening. Threshold for calling derecho is lower with increased public awareness/excitement after DC. On the other hand, BUF did also mention threat of derecho early Thurs AM for western NY: As the warm front presses northward expect a complex of thunderstorms over lower Ontario Canada to reach wny around or just past midnight. There is a chance that damaging wind gusts may accompany the complex of thunderstorms. As a result...Storm Prediction Center has wny and portions of central New York outlined within a slight chance for severe thunderstorms. Spc's mean derecho parameter...which is a product of dcape...MUCAPE and the 0-6 km shear continues to place the highest potential for a derecho over southern Ontario Canada and then advancing into portions of western New York later overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 GFS still far north with overnight MCS Better for us correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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