Damage In Tolland Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Greatest tornado threat I think is along the CT river valley south of BAF, centered around 6pm ish Would you say a place like say,, West hartford might be a great spot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Leaving tomorrow around 11ish for Scranton, PA, or possibly Binghamton. I'll give you guys updates as whatever forms comes NE at ya's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 1985 is not even close to a good analog. Can you think of a decent one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Wow looks great for some fun times tommorrow here on west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 LOL at the 1985 analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Can you think of a decent one? April 25-28 2011 only shifted 1500 miles ne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Would still be cautious about effects of morning convection, particularly if sustained MCS gets going in AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 April 25-28 2011 only shifted 1500 miles ne. The April 25–28, 2011 tornado outbreak was the largest single-system tornado outbreak ever recorded. It was also the costliest and one of the deadliest tornado outbreaks in history as well. The outbreak affected a large swath of theSouthern, Midwestern, and Northeastern United States, leaving catastrophic destruction in its wake, especially across the state of Alabama.[7] It produced destructive tornadoes in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Mississippi, Tennessee, andVirginia, and affected many other areas throughout the Southern and Eastern United States across a four-day period from April 25 to 28, 2011, with the most intense activity on April 27. In total, 358 tornadoes were confirmed by the National Weather Service in 21 states from Texas to New York and in southern Canada. Widespread and destructive tornadoes occurred on each day of the outbreak, with April 27 being among the most prolific and destructive tornado days in United States history with a record 205 tornadoes touching down that day. Four of the tornadoes were destructive enough to be rated EF5 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale, which is the highest ranking possible; typically these tornadoes are only recorded about once each year or less.[7] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 April 25-28 2011 only shifted 1500 miles ne. Yeah I think many are predicting 3 to 4....hundred tornadoes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Wow..An early start from Forbes Dr. Greg Forbes @DrGregForbes There could be a morning derecho - widespread thunderstorm wind event - Thursday morning in NY, CT, MA, RI, north NJ, maybe by sunrise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 25, 2012 Author Share Posted July 25, 2012 welp.... somebody ought to go wake up Monson Mass - What movie was it, "Boy I'd sure hate to get Monsoned". Oh yeah, "Kingpin" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Would still be cautious about effects of morning convection, particularly if sustained MCS gets going in AM. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 SREF SigTor shifted north: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 That morning complex may miss a good chunk Of ct, but you won't know until it develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 That morning complex may miss a good chunk Of ct, but you won't know until it develops. RPM slams it into NYC/CT lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 That morning complex may miss a good chunk Of ct, but you won't know until it develops. Forbes tossing derecho out for many of us is wild..He's not usually like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Great disco from ALB THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA...INCLUDING THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...IN A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A SLIGHT RISK FARTHER NORTH. THE WIND FIELD WILL BE INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH DEEP LAYER 0-6KM SHEAR LIKELY 40+ KT ALONG WITH CLOCKWISE TURNING HODOGRAPHS IN THE LOWEST 3KM. WITH FAIRLY LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND STRONG INSTABILITY/SHEAR THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS WITH A TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS THAT FORM INITIALLY. THE CONVECTIVE MODE MAY END UP SHIFTING TO MORE OF A BOW ECHO OR LEWP TYPE AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE APPROACHES AND FORCING BECOME MORE FOCUSED DURING THE EVENING. WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA OF THE OVERALL EVOLUTION TOMORROW...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH DATA TO SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WITH POSSIBLE TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT AND/OR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 SPC Wrf really does not have much morning action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 RPM slams it into NYC/CT lol Yeah I saw the 12z run. Who knows maybe it will lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Forbes tossing derecho out for many of us is wild..He's not usually like that I don't see a derecho threat for us tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I don't see a derecho threat for us tomorrow morning Dr Greg Forbes does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Dr Greg Forbes does. Good for him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Good for him What could he be seeing to possibly throw such a bold statement like that out there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 What could he be seeing to possibly throw such a bold statement like that out there? Dollar signs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 What could he be seeing to possibly throw such a bold statement like that out there? Dude, he mentions the possibility in those locations which is true, but Ryan is saying he doesn't see your area as a threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 What could he be seeing to possibly throw such a bold statement like that out there? He may not have been looking as closely... I'm not sure. While morning convection is possible... everything that I've seen indicates it will be sub severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Dollar signs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I don't see a derecho threat for us tomorrow morning i could see a decaying MCS fizzling as it moves into a sh*tty environment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 25, 2012 Author Share Posted July 25, 2012 Just want to clarify something... With a mid/u/a speed max rolling through the flow along and N of the warm boundary overnight there could just a likely evolve a general zone of isentropic lift related rains with embedded elevated convection. That would much less related to derechio kinematics. Derechios tend to develop and then cross into warm sectors to the right. Typically the day preceding them is hot/torrid already. This different than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Good for him The term has been tossed around quite a bit since the DC event, and the East Coast public is really just starting to hear and recognize the word because of it. I think part of why he may be saying it is because people understand that it means big wind is possible tomorrow. The definition really is that it is producing nearly continuous wind or wind damage for over 240 miles. Not scattered severe wind, or taking a brief break before reorganizing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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