wxsniss Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Shift this about 150 miles east, best target area as of now: northeast PA / southcentral-southeast NY / western CT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 dew points are overdone, but when the NAM is printing out 4874J/kg of CAPE at SWF, with 0-3km SRH over 200, you pay attention Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Shift this about 150 miles east, best target area as of now: northeast PA / southcentral-southeast NY / western CT... good luck with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 really a lot of the soundings from C / W CT into the hudson valley look good. pros and cons to each Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Can any mets kind of give a general time frame? Is this a daylight/late afternoon evening deal..or after dark? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Well...since I am out of play here in Boston, it will still be fun to follow the posts on here tomorrow...congrats to those who get huge storms!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Can any mets kind of give a general time frame? :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 :weenie: Some of us are taking this dangerous situation very seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 ellinwood's thoughts: http://www.ustornadoes.com/2012/07/25/tornado-threat-update-for-july-26-2012/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 good luck with that Lol. You're sarcastic, but support is there for the potential for 1-5 TORs, and the area highlighted (shifted 150 miles east from 1985) is spot on, at least as it looks now from several runs of the SREF and NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Lol. You're sarcastic, but support is there for the potential for 1-5 TORs, and the area highlighted (shifted 150 miles east from 1985) is spot on, at least as it looks now from several runs of the SREF and NAM. This will be nothing like the 1985 tornado outbreak. That was arguably one of the more impressive outbreaks in the united states for the shear number of strong/violent long-track tornadoes over such a small geographic area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Are there any decent analogs we can compare this to? May 31 outbreak?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Lol. You're sarcastic, but support is there for the potential for 1-5 TORs, and the area highlighted (shifted 150 miles east from 1985) is spot on, at least as it looks now from several runs of the SREF and NAM. fair enough. you could probably find a better event to shift though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 25, 2012 Author Share Posted July 25, 2012 That's the MCS for later correct? looks sort of hybrid though. Almost looks more like a straight up IB pulse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Thoughts for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 25, 2012 Author Share Posted July 25, 2012 As I mentioned earlier, people really need to watch out in this I think where ever that warm front sets up tomorrow... along and south of it by 30 or so miles is tornado-tuesday from what I am looking at. SPC echoed my thoughts in their update: "... ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE WHERE EFFECTIVE SRH AND STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ALTHOUGH PINPOINTING THIS CORRIDOR IS DIFFICULT GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF PRECEDING OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...IT APPEARS MOST PROBABLE FROM PARTS OF NY INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. SOME CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DISCRETE CONVECTION MAY FORM WITHIN A PERSISTING WAA REGIME THU AFTERNOON." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 This will be nothing like the 1985 tornado outbreak. That was arguably one of the more impressive outbreaks in the united states for the shear number of strong/violent long-track tornadoes over such a small geographic area. I agree Ryan. I should have been clearer with posting the map. The 1985 analog has been made by multiple others in this thread, but I think it's obvious to everyone this won't be nearly as prolific as 1985 (which also had over a dozen TORs in Ontario, 40+ TORs total in Canada/US... not even close). Still, threat of 1-5 TORs in the area discussed, as well as significant wind/hail is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Greatest tornado threat I think is along the CT river valley south of BAF, centered around 6pm ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Thoughts for tomorrow. wow thats :weenie: :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Greatest tornado threat I think is along the CT river valley south of BAF, centered around 6pm ish I agree but the threat is conditional on destabilizing enough and keeping storm mode discrete ahead of main line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 25, 2012 Author Share Posted July 25, 2012 man, everything i look at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I agree Ryan. I should have been clearer with posting the map. The 1985 analog has been made by multiple others in this thread, but I think it's obvious to everyone this won't be nearly as prolific as 1985 (which also had over a dozen TORs in Ontario, 40+ TORs total in Canada/US... not even close). Still, threat of 1-5 TORs in the area discussed, as well as significant wind/hail is there. Including multiple violent, long trackers which caused some incredible damage... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I agree Ryan. I should have been clearer with posting the map. The 1985 analog has been made by multiple others in this thread, but I think it's obvious to everyone this won't be nearly as prolific as 1985 (which also had over a dozen TORs in Ontario, 40+ TORs total in Canada/US... not even close). Still, threat of 1-5 TORs in the area discussed, as well as significant wind/hail is there. 1985 is not even close to a good analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 1985 is not even close to a good analog. 1985 makes 1953/1989 look like a pea size hail producing thundershower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 1985 is not even close to a good analog. This will be nowhere even near that event, I would be absolutely flabbergasted if anything of that magnitude came out of a setup like tomorrow's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Greatest tornado threat I think is along the CT river valley south of BAF, centered around 6pm ish seems that region actually has some of the better timing/collocation of maximized HEL and CAPE. and even though there isn't quite as much CAPE modeled...wouldn't surprise me if it sneaks a bit further N up the hudson valley either...up toward ALB or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I agree but the threat is conditional on destabilizing enough and keeping storm mode discrete ahead of main line. I guess if the greatest Severe Threat is CT River valley west, then what can we expect east of the river?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormDude81 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I think tomorrow from OH to New England, we will end up with 10 to 15 tornadoes, including a few strong tornadoes in PA/S NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I think tomorrow from OH to New England, we will end up with 10 to 15 tornadoes, including a few strong tornadoes in PA/S NY I think it's too early to make calls like these, tbh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormDude81 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I think it's too early to make calls like these, tbh... It's guessing, that's what makes it fun, but to be realistic, i would say that at least a few tornadoes will be possible, my 10 to 15 tornado prediction if everything comes together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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