radarman Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Admittedly but I like that the trend for the initial surge near dawn has been further and further north. I'm hoping that we are commenting how lousy the radar looks coming off the lakes in the early AM hours. Should that stuff stay all north of the MA/VT border and the currently depicted disjointed back-end in fact be a distinct (and delayed) second line, I could see us getting some differential heating near outflow from part A in the morning and having a strong line come through around noon or something. Later on I'm certainly not too bullish for this area though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Maybe Chris can chime in here because I am not that familar with the area. I know there are open farm areas in Warren County in Mansfield and also if you head west toward White TWP. The problem is that there are numerous areas in NW NJ where trees are extensive. I know Mount Olive has a few good spots too. Do you know of any good/scenic spots for viewing up there? I'm strongly considering making the trip up if we can get some significant wind producers tomorrow (which i think is becoming increasingly likely). It looks like my area will be close enough to hear the thunder while the storms move along the height gradient just to my north. Hmm obviously there are so many hills and valleys that can offer great views here..i dont really know great ones off the top of my head that can see around any thick forests. Only one I can think of is off of schooleys mountain rd..the neighborhood out of hastings square. I used to go to the top of the hill (on the border of Mount Olive/Washington Twp) and over look Hackettstown to the west/northwest, from about 800 feet up , through a tree clearing for transmission lines. Type in 110 Knob hill rd, hackettstown NJ in google maps and thats where im talking about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 My cell phone is filled with boring mammatus pictures this year! lol Yes, yesterday I was talking about the pros/cons with a lower latitude EML. The good news is that this type of cap can easily break and the EWR bufkit shows that nicely. Ahh i did not catch that, will have to go back and read up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Yeah once you get northeast of HFD I think things get sort of meh. This has a CT River Valley/Litchfield Hills/Fairfield Co look to me. I agree with this. From what HM says, we don't need much/if any sun tomorrow for a shot..Just need to be near the boundary which we will be..We may actually be better off not getting into the high heat Well, take the sun if you can get it! But yeah, the low LCL / high shear and sufficient CAPE type of thing is what you will be looking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Our 4km WRF brings in a nasty squall line/morning MCS around 14z for CT/NY/NJ followed by convective initiation around 18z in the Poconos up through BGM sliding east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Impressive 12z nam run. a lot of backing surface winds tomorrow evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 not severe related, but what do PM Temps look like tomorrow on the 12z NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 While I wouldn't rule out places to the east getting into the more unstable air the models have been quite consistent in keeping the real juice from HFD/BDL points southwest. Shouldn't matter...Blizz lives and dies by what happens at BDL in the summer so hopefully the ASOS gets a good 55kt gust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 25, 2012 Author Share Posted July 25, 2012 Impressive 12z nam run. a lot of backing surface winds tomorrow evening I am a little less concerned about CIN tomorrow with these helicity numbers - that kind of shear profile can pull a parcel clean through a CIN by pure fluid mechanics, and get it to is free C level. But what I find interesting is the NAM MOS products raising the temps in interior SNE every run by 1 or 2 clicks - may be yielding to a farther N WF position in time. It just looks to me, considering all, that if we can hang a west -east oriented WF up into southern VT/NH ...heads are going to roll across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 25, 2012 Author Share Posted July 25, 2012 As expected: ADDITIONALLY...500 MB FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 40-50KT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THIS DEVELOPING ACTIVITY AND ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE AS CONVECTION MATURES. AS A RESULT THERE IS INCREASING CONCERN THAT DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE COMMON WITH WARM SECTOR CONVECTION. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS AN AREA FROM SRN OH ACROSS MUCH OF WRN/NRN PA INTO CNTRL NY MAY BE UPGRADED TO A MODERATE CATEGORICAL RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS. May not extend into NE per se - but, heh, convection always is a kind of dart throwing contest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 GFS has no morning MCS lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 25, 2012 Author Share Posted July 25, 2012 GFS has no morning MCS lol funny - it seems almost unavoidable when you have a hauling ass mid/u/a jet running on the N side of a warm boundary in mid summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 GFS looks suspect in the morning. Either way, Fairfield County looks like the place to be in New England tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Our 4km WRF brings in a nasty squall line/morning MCS around 14z for CT/NY/NJ followed by convective initiation around 18z in the Poconos up through BGM sliding east. How has it performed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 12z GFS certainly is the furthest north with the thurs system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 How has it performed? Pretty well lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 BUF is throwing out the d-word for tonight. I'm a bit weary about that given that it's rather difficult to forecast whether we will see an area of heavy rain and embedded severe storms or a cold pool organizing into a progressive derecho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 BUF is throwing out the d-word for tonight. I'm a bit weary about that given that it's rather difficult to forecast whether we will see an area of heavy rain and embedded severe storms or a cold pool organizing into a progressive derecho. Leary... Weary is tired Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 25, 2012 Author Share Posted July 25, 2012 there already a fairly large area of a rain with embedded thunder passing into western lower Lake Ontario as we speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Leary... Weary is tired lol yes...whoops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 there already a fairly large area of a rain with embedded thunder passing into western lower Lake Ontario as we speak. Huron? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonkis Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Leary... Weary is tired Leery... Leary is Timothy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Leery... Leary is Timothy LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 lol yes...whoops Or wary? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 25, 2012 Author Share Posted July 25, 2012 Huron? Ah hahahahahha - oh man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 there already a fairly large area of a rain with embedded thunder passing into western lower Lake Ontario as we speak. Never seen it called that before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Everything continues to look impressive for the CT River Valley and points southwest. I'm interested to see what the Euro does. I do think we will see a tornado threat develop on the northern axis on the best instability/theta-e ridge where the strongest shear and low level backed winds exist. I think from EWR points south the threat is more of a damaging MCS that approaches later in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Tip posted this earlier... but worth repeating how warm MOS is. Blows the front through with low 90s for highs around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 there already a fairly large area of a rain with embedded thunder passing into western lower Lake Ontario as we speak. That's the MCS for later correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 MDT Risk banner for tomorrow up on SPC website... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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