CoastalWx Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I can't look at things hard on my phone, but I'll check in from time to time. Hope you guys get something good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Interesting breakdown, the 6z nam looks very similar to the evolution you describe here. It will be interesting to see how backed the surface winds are by the late afternoon, though even sw - ssw winds suggest some nice directional shear in this setup. The srefs also seems to suggest quite a fine line between a nice setup and a lacking one to the southwest within the most unstable atmosphere The ECMWF and to some extent the GFS seem to also have ths evening cluster too. In the morning, the quick arrival of the anticyclonic vorticity advection / building ridge should keep the timing on the faster side but these morning systems can be fickle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 So it sounds like maybe the best threat may not be in the true warm sector where it gets into the 90's but in areas a bit farther north along and just south of where the boundary sets up That can happen this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 So it sounds like maybe the best threat may not be in the true warm sector where it gets into the 90's but in areas a bit farther north along and just south of where the boundary sets up Yes and as others have pointed out this can be a classic setup. So while I am (once again) burning up here in C NJ likely watching distant anvils to the north, CT / N NJ / SE NY will be seeing something good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I can't look at things hard on my phone, but I'll check in from time to time. Hope you guys get something good. Where are you at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 That's how the long track NH tornado formed. Not much instability but low LCLs and dews near 74 or so. the Ossipee one a few years ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Yes and as others have pointed out this can be a classic setup. So while I am (once again) burning up here in C NJ likely watching distant anvils to the north, CT / N NJ / SE NY will be seeing something good. Hopefully you are in on the action, but if not A quick car ride from Trenton up to Hackettstown may be in order Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Hopefully you are in on the action, but if not A quick car ride from Trenton up to Hackettstown may be in order There is nothing "quick" about a car ride from TTN to Hackettstown. After tonight's data, maybe I can work something out tomorrow if it really looks promising that N NJ can get in on the action. The ultimate kick in the balls would be to drive through that nightmare only to then watch anvils from N NJ, lol. I've had more anvils / mammatus this year than downpours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 There is nothing "quick" about a car ride from TTN to Hackettstown. After tonight's data, maybe I can work something out tomorrow if it really looks promising that N NJ can get in on the action. The ultimate kick in the balls would be to drive through that nightmare only to then watch anvils from N NJ, lol. I've had more anvils / mammatus this year than downpours. I lived the first 7 years of my life in Hightstown/East Windsor , NJ, and my grandparents lived in Hackettstown ( still have cousins aunts uncles there too) so know the ride well. It's a different world in NW Jersey for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I lived the first 7 years of my life in Hightstown/East Windsor , NJ, and my grandparents lived in Hackettstown ( still have cousins aunts uncles there too) so know the ride well. It's a different world in NW Jersey for sure Agreed. It is more ideal to get a thunderstorm to come through NW NJ than it is N-C or NE NJ for viewing purposes. The traffic from C to N NJ is just ridiculous and this would have to be planned out ahead of time (not an easy task). Also, I am in the Rt. 18 / Monmouth-Middlesex area this week and that can only increase the insanity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Where are you at? Lake Winnipesaukee. Just enjoying the convo from afar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 the Ossipee one a few years ago? Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 A lot of moving pieces here. If I had to target one area it would be SE NY, NE PA, NW NJ with the best chance for seeing something significant. Not sure what will develop during the day here in CT after the morning MCS/rain moves through along the front. It's going to be a challenging forecast. Tornado threat is certainly there though so we'll have to watch closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Agreed. It is more ideal to get a thunderstorm to come through NW NJ than it is N-C or NE NJ for viewing purposes. The traffic from C to N NJ is just ridiculous and this would have to be planned out ahead of time (not an easy task). Also, I am in the Rt. 18 / Monmouth-Middlesex area this week and that can only increase the insanity. Do you know of any good/scenic spots for viewing up there? I'm strongly considering making the trip up if we can get some significant wind producers tomorrow (which i think is becoming increasingly likely). It looks like my area will be close enough to hear the thunder while the storms move along the height gradient just to my north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 There is nothing "quick" about a car ride from TTN to Hackettstown. After tonight's data, maybe I can work something out tomorrow if it really looks promising that N NJ can get in on the action. The ultimate kick in the balls would be to drive through that nightmare only to then watch anvils from N NJ, lol. I've had more anvils / mammatus this year than downpours. Well at least thats pretty cool lol...I thought you were even missing out on those. I know you were missed by a matter of miles with the 2 severe complexes on the derecho day...and what, you don't like driving up to Hackettstown?? lol. Anyhow, things do look strongly capped in the warm sector prior to the 4-7 pm timeframe on the nam. It's not a classic EML as its in the 900-600mb layer, but it seems to serve a similar purpose (unless lower surface dews start mixing down, which would probably be limited with a good moisture return on sw wind..the more southerly, the better in more ways than one). EWR nam bufkits for 4pm and then 6pm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 It's going to be painful watching the clouds break tomorrow afternoon around here. The NAM keeps us sort of meh until after 18z when instability skyrockets. I think along that boundary we're going to see some good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 It's going to be painful watching the clouds break tomorrow afternoon around here. The NAM keeps us sort of meh until after 18z when instability skyrockets. I think along that boundary we're going to see some good stuff. Could be quite a difference within CT--SW areas being hot/humid and missing the overnight rains while NE CT is cool and damp for alot longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Do you know of any good/scenic spots for viewing up there? I'm strongly considering making the trip up if we can get some significant wind producers tomorrow (which i think is becoming increasingly likely). It looks like my area will be close enough to hear the thunder while the storms move along the height gradient just to my north. Maybe Chris can chime in here because I am not that familar with the area. I know there are open farm areas in Warren County in Mansfield and also if you head west toward White TWP. The problem is that there are numerous areas in NW NJ where trees are extensive. I know Mount Olive has a few good spots too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Could be quite a difference within CT--SW areas being hot/humid and missing the overnight rains while NE CT is cool and damp for alot longer Yeah once you get northeast of HFD I think things get sort of meh. This has a CT River Valley/Litchfield Hills/Fairfield Co look to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 It's going to be painful watching the clouds break tomorrow afternoon around here. The NAM keeps us sort of meh until after 18z when instability skyrockets. I think along that boundary we're going to see some good stuff. From what HM says, we don't need much/if any sun tomorrow for a shot..Just need to be near the boundary which we will be..We may actually be better off not getting into the high heat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Well at least thats pretty cool lol...I thought you were even missing out on those. I know you were missed by a matter of miles with the 2 severe complexes on the derecho day...and what, you don't like driving up to Hackettstown?? lol. Anyhow, things do look strongly capped in the warm sector prior to the 4-7 pm timeframe on the nam. It's not a classic EML as its in the 900-600mb layer, but it seems to serve a similar purpose (unless lower surface dews start mixing down, which would probably be limited with a good moisture return on sw wind..the more southerly, the better in more ways than one). EWR nam bufkits for 4pm and then 6pm: My cell phone is filled with boring mammatus pictures this year! lol Yes, yesterday I was talking about the pros/cons with a lower latitude EML. The good news is that this type of cap can easily break and the EWR bufkit shows that nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 From what HM says, we don't need much/if any sun tomorrow for a shot..Just need to be near the boundary which we will be..We may actually be better off not getting into the high heat While it won't need to be in the 90s you will need to detabilize to erode the low level CIN (which the models yesterday were showing to be an issue). I think W CT/SE NY look much better than NE CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 While it won't need to be in the 90s you will need to detabilize to erode the low level CIN (which the models yesterday were showing to be an issue). I think W CT/SE NY look much better than NE CT. To me it looks like anywhere from the Mass Pike south is in the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 To me it looks like anywhere from the Mass Pike south is in the game While I wouldn't rule out places to the east getting into the more unstable air the models have been quite consistent in keeping the real juice from HFD/BDL points southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Hopefully activity can hold off til after four lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 To me it looks like anywhere from the Mass Pike south is in the game Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 NAM now brings the MCS into N NJ/NYC after 00z...interesting that it's going later with the timing..but not surprising given the height field and cap at 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 NAM now brings the MCS into N NJ/NYC after 00z...interesting that it's going later with the timing..but not surprising given the height field and cap at 15z. hi res is further North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 for NE CT . as many have said SW CT NYC NJ look best for your outbreak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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