CT Rain Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 It's too hard to get all the variables to come together--not to mention the region is entirely removed from some of them except on special occasions and even then it's not quite the same. Early season would seemingly never have the moisture etc needed. Late season would never have the jet configuration. There's probably some theoretical superstorm in prime season but it seems far fetched. New England and surrounds have the best long-term tornado record in the country -- early settlers noted them quite a bit. I think we'd know if there was some epic disaster in the last few hundred years at least, though there are a lot of trees out there. Global warming may increase our severe wx season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 As that present cell moved to the Southeast just after sunset a spectacular light show. The top of the anvil illuminated by sunlight with bolts (constant cloud to cloud) splitting in all directions. My neighbor, "better than fireworks" Incredible show.....dumb dumb did not take pictures!!! D'OH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Perhaps, although 5/31/85 was a more classic outbreak setup. 5/31/85 was absolutely nuts. The number of long track sig tornadoes in such a small area puts that outbreak up there with some of the all-time CONUS greats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 i think areas east of central ct might get screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Perhaps, although 5/31/85 was a more classic outbreak setup. you can't have too much low level SE flow in this area or there's marine contamination Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 i think areas east of central ct might get screwed I wouldn't expect much in RI or C/E Mass. Western Mass/CT seems to be in a pretty good spot IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Global warming may increase our severe wx season Yeah I guess that's possible. I just think the Apps and local effects to their east screw things up a bit too much to sustain large scale outbreaks of major note. They may also aid mini alleys like in the Carolinas but that area also plays with a lot more gulf moisture early in the year. We've got a ways to go before those types of airmasses are normal in say March or April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Great blog post, Ryan! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 you can't have too much low level SE flow in this area or there's marine contamination Yeah, that's why I had the LLJ in the outlook I wrote out of the south/ssw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 if that event winds up being weak/further north then we mix too much dry air down dewpoints on the 18z nam go from mid 70s over n/cnj to mid 60s over the dc region wed afternoon I agree. This is when that low-altitude EML "negative" comes into play...deeper into the warm sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 NAM is plowing that MCS into Albany at 15z Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 That hodo in Ryan's blog post is about as good as you're going to see in this area at this time of year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 NAM looks good for areas like AVP, BGM and UNV. Morning MCS is trouble for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 NAM looks good for areas like AVP, BGM and UNV. Morning MCS is trouble for us. i think it tends to be too slow with these Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 i think it tends to be too slow with these Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 21z SREFs impressive... particularly SE NY, N NJ, NE PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 21z SREFs impressive... particularly SE NY, N NJ, NE PA Nastiness... And if that NAM is underestimating LL helicity like it often does... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Man are the 21z SPC SREF probs impressive...actually even a bit moreso than the 15z run. Seeing a large area of SIG TOR of 2 with large area of >30% chance for 3-4. SIG TOR ingredients boosted too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 NAM popping some serious 0-3 km EHI values by 21z across Eastern PA and Central NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 That hodo in Ryan's blog post is about as good as you're going to see in this area at this time of year... Best I've ever seen was 6/6/10 lol. Of course horrible thermal profile. I saved the NAM 6hr forecast for Concord: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Scranton at 21z... (Weakly capped EHI of 7 and STP of 5) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 can you post ewr? i'm feeling lazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 The New York City soudings are downright amazing. The 00z FRI KNYC sounding is just, wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormDude81 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 This thing could be looking like a pretty significant outbreak of severe weather for E OH/PA/NY/NJ/W CT/MA/VT, this could be a fairly sizable tornado event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 The New York City soudings are downright amazing. The 00z FRI KNYC sounding is just, wow. Yes, read my mind.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 The New York City soudings are downright amazing. The 00z FRI KNYC sounding is just, wow. Yup. Very impressive. I think the timing of things on the NAM may be a bit too late for places up here... but I think NE PA/N NJ looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Looking at some soundings one thing I see is a bit of a bulge in the temp contour around 500mb suggesting there may be an area of slight warming...hopefully this does not become an issue but this is something that can really prevent updrafts from blossoming much taller...this is where you hope strong instability/forcing/dynamical help can do it's job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Yup. Very impressive. I think the timing of things on the NAM may be a bit too late for places up here... but I think NE PA/N NJ looks good. Agreed...I'd definitely hit areas like NE PA/N NJ/SE NY much more hard than here but certainly mention the possibility for western CT at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Well off to bed...will wake up between 5-6 AM to look at rest of stuff before work. When the new day 2 comes out in ~3 hours I could see a 30% area from NE to into N NJ/SE NY up to the CT border. Might not mention upgrade to moderate possible in future outlooks but if morning data looks even better then we could see that with the 1730z outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 The NAM soundings are very impressive even down to this area, but it is certainty interesting to see it insisting on storms struggling to get south of the NY/NJ border. You can see on the 500mb height panel that the vorticity shoots eastward after this frame and the storms do so as well. The NAM keys in on more convective development Friday afternoon with the height falls around 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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