WilkesboroDude Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Forecast Discussion SPC AC 240601 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0101 AM CDT TUE JUL 24 2012 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC REGION NWWD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND NRN PLAINS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Virginia and North Carolina could see a decent line of thunderstorms racing across them this afternoon, during peak heating... I wouldn't be surprised to see wind gusts as high as 70 mph all along the line. The 4km NAM shows the line fairly well: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NAMSFC4SE_0z/rloop.html Things are already getting started in Wisconsin and Indiana. Should be fun to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted July 24, 2012 Author Share Posted July 24, 2012 Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg Virginia 515 am EDT Tuesday Jul 24 2012 Consequently...the focus bullseye for convection today appears to be along and west of the I-77 corridor...with the Bristol-Abingdon area appearing to be in the center of any potential mesoscale convective system. Drier air begins to advect SW into the northern part of the County Warning Area toward evening. With this thinking in mind...have advertised likely to categorical probability of precipitation generally from blf-mkj...west and SW...with chance probability of precipitation to the east. The lowest probability of precipitation are across the Piedmont region. Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk advertised for the entire County Warning Area...but again thinking is that the main threat for severe will be across our far S WV...SW WV...and northwest NC counties. If the mesoscale convective system becomes more organized than currently expected...we could be dealing with another derecho and a more widespread damaging wind event for areas east of the alleghanys as well. As such...Storm Prediction Center is hinting at a potential moderate risk if this becomes evident later in the day. The hail threat should be mostly confined to areas west of I-77 given current thinking. Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 304 am EDT Tuesday Jul 24 2012 Better shear will increase the chance of severe storms across the region and Storm Prediction Center has put the entire County Warning Area in a slight risk area for severe storms today. The main concern will be straight-line wind damage but large hail and even an isolated tornado will also be possible this afternoon and evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted July 24, 2012 Author Share Posted July 24, 2012 7:00AM with storms just firing up in West Virginia. More rounds of activity further north-west going toward Chicago. EDIT - Lots of reports of winds over 60mph near Chicago. Damaging winds will be our main culprit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Busick Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 I am thinking a MCS or MCC could form this afternoon maybe after the cluster moves across the mountains and races torwards the ocean. Any thoughts mets? I have a feeling things are going to get fun in NC and Virginia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 I just read the story at WRAL.com about the threat of severe weather today and was wondering if it was just more hype. Looks like this is the real deal, though. Elevated risk for almost all of NC and VA, and talk about another derecho and tornadoes. Sounds very ominous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 GSP just upped our precip chance to 80% for this afternoon. They are concerned about Wind today also. Here is part of the HWO & AFD. 1140 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR MORE LINES ACROSS TENNESSEE AND WEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE ORGANIZED AREAS OF STORMS WILL THEN SWEEP TO THE SOUTHEAST AND AFFECT WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA BY MID AFTERNOON AND THE UPSTATE PARTS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA A FEW HOURS LATER. IT/S LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT AREAS OF WIDESPREAD STRAIGHT-LINE WIND DAMAGE WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS EVEN POSSIBLE. THE AREAS WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING SEVERE STORMS WILL INCLUDE THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA ALONG WITH THE NORTHERN UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA. A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND SOME LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH THE LARGER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES. AFD: .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion -- AS OF 1105 AM EDT...THE ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE ALREADY THIS MORNING AS MOST OF THE FA IS EXPERIENCING FULL SUN. CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OF THE FA OVER ERN KY AND WV. A LONG LIVED MCS IS MOVING SE AT OVER 50 KTS ACROSS CENTRAL IN AND WRN OH ATTM. I/M NOT SURE IF THIS FEATURE WILL HOLD TOGETHER AND AFFECT OUR NRN ZONES STARTING AROUND 20 UTC...OR IF THE LEAD CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP IT/S OWN COLD POOL AND BECOME AN MCS. HOWEVER...I/M CONFIDENT THAT ONE OF THESE FEATURES WILL AFFECT THE FA STARTING BETWEEN ABOUT 2 AND 3 PM. THE WRF-ARW DROPS A WELL FORMED MCS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 19-22 UTC. I/VE USED THIS TIMING TO ADJUST POPS UP INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE ALONG THE PROBABLE MCS PATH LATER IN THE AFTN. THE RAP 0-3 KM BULK SHEAR IS ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF THIS AS IT INCREASES TO OVER 30 KTS OVER THE NC ZONES AND THE ERN PART OF THE UPSTATE BY LATE AFTN. I/VE ADDED DAMAGING WIND WORDING TO THE ZONES IN THESE AREAS AND THE HWO WILL BE PUNCHED UP AS WELL. ALL OF THIS MATCHES WITH SPC/S 30 PERCENT DAMAGING WIND PROBS FOR THE FORECAST AREA NORTH AND EAST OF A GREENVILLE TO ASHEVILLE LINE FOR LATER TODAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 I have been trying to warn people about this threat. I get a bunch of "we always have storms in NC in the summer, no big deal." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Chase time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Chase time Ha! That's IF you can get that junk cloud cover out of the way... Well, that's if you're looking for great cloud structures. I wish I was out chasing this beast! Here's the visible imagery of it around 12:40 EDT. You can see the leading edge of the line is... good stuff. Happy chasing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Chase time I think with the chances of this being a widespread type event that chasing should be pretty easy. Just got be at the best part of the line at the right time. The morning disco out of MHX suggests another widespread wind event with winds in excess of 60mph. AS OF 1030 AM TUE...THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXISTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES LI`S OF AROUND -9 AT 21Z WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALS AOA 4500 J/KG. THESE PARAMETERS GIVEN CREDIBILITY AS LATE MORNING TD VALS ALREADY IN THE MID 70S...AND COULD CLIMB A TAD HIGHER GIVEN INC LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF FRONT TO THE NORTH. EFFECTIVE SHEAR ABOVE 30 KT AND VERY STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST DAMAGING WINDS ABOVE 60 MPH IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AROUND 21Z FOR THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF FA...QUICKLY SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HAVE INC POPS AND ADDED MENTION FOR DAMAGING CONVECTIVE WINDS IN GRIDS. COULD SEE SOME LARGE HAIL AS WELL. THREAT FOR FLOODING MINIMAL AS STORM MOTION VECTOR WILL BE PERPENDICULAR TO MEAN FLOW WITH STORMS QUICKLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Chase time Can you pick me up? LOL. I'm jealous, hope you get something good on film! I just moved down to Lillington, NC for school (Campbell) and I don't have internet yet on my PC (no GRLevel ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mencken_Fan Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 I have been trying to warn people about this threat. I get a bunch of "we always have storms in NC in the summer, no big deal." You must know my father....(how unlucky for you.) Atmosphere over Cape Fear, N.C. is primed but I wouldn't bet a nickel on rain. Haven't had a drop since the 0.02" back on the 12th. I've been watching storms die just before arrival - like roadkill on a busy highway - all month. 94/74 104F ILM at 1pm 96/76 109F IMBY (UNCW) at 1:15 with blazing sunshine and no sea breeze whatsoever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 That batch entering Northern Kentucky has "big time derecho" written all over it for the Southern Appalachian Region... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Be careful out there today guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Big cell firing up just south of Greensboro. Of course it started forming right over me and exploded as it moved just to the east...now it's taunting me with its thunder as it slowly moves away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Preparing for a strong wind event here in East TN. It's currently raining 50 miles to my northeast, but nary a drop has fallen here today, and the sun is still out. With an southward-surging outflow boundary clearly visible via radar, I imagine the areas not impacted by round #1 are in for a show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Parameters getting pretty intense Scape is over 5000, Mcape is 4500, Dcape 1400 that along with good mid level lapse rates here in eastern NC are about as nasty as I have seen it since July 1st when we got destroyed by a a nasty little MCS.....the question is when does it go boom...... Its 91/75 feels horrible outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Eyewall you better catch that monster headed your way that things gonna beast out..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Severe thunderstorm watch just went up here. 236 PM EDT Tue Jul 24 2012 The National Weather Service has issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch 512 in effect until 10 PM EDT this evening for the following areas In North Carolina this watch includes 31 counties In central North Carolina Alamance Anson Chatham Cumberland Davidson Durham Edgecombe Forsyth Franklin Granville Guilford Halifax Harnett Hoke Johnston Lee Montgomery Moore Nash Orange person Randolph Richmond Sampson Scotland Stanly Vance wake Warren Wayne Wilson This includes the cities of...Albemarle...Asheboro...Burlington... Chapel HIll...Clinton...Durham...Fayetteville...Goldsboro... Greensboro...Henderson...High Point...Laurinburg...Lexington... Lillington...Louisburg...Nashville...Oxford...Pittsboro... Raeford...Raleigh...Roanoke Rapids...Rockingham...Rocky Mount... Roxboro...Sanford...Smithfield...Southern Pines...Troy... Wadesboro...Warrenton...Wilson and Winston-Salem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Storms seem to be firing up right on schedule. Thundering here now and getting dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Some severe thunderstorm warnings popping up now nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Had some thunder here at work in RTP but that was it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 There is a tree down on 440 in Raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Must not be as bad as predicted, though. No one is talking about it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Must not be as bad as predicted, though. No one is talking about it now. Nope just you talking to yourself it looks like! 20,000+ without power in Wake Co. This is the first wave of storms and they with through quickly, so other than downed trees here and there, nothing to really discuss. Second wave to come later tonight...watching the storms in WV/VA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 I am in Raleigh somewhere between the airport and downtown. We got a pretty good storm about an hour ago. Strong winds of 30-40mph, heavy rain and some vivid lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WFFaithful Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Why is the rain disappearing as it gets into NW NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Why is the rain disappearing as it gets into NW NC? Yeah, the mountains seem to be tearing this MCS to shreds. Oh, well. There's always tomorrow for another shot at rain. The real action today (in NC, anyway) seemed to take place a few hours ago in the Raleigh area and is now approaching the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mencken_Fan Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Beautiful squall line tracking towards the NC coast but I'm seeing something all too familiar; the outflow ahead of the storms is getting awfully far ahead of the line. For the Cape Fear area this pattern has been the death knell for many a storm this summer. My confidence in getting a storm is diminishing.... Not giving up but getting nervous. Terrific close-up satellite view: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/wfo/ilm/flash-vis.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.