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August 2012 General Discussion


Chicago WX

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Kinda dumb talking about 2m temps right now, let alone in fantasy land of the NAM, but it has an early morning high of 68º for Friday for IND. That would break the daily low max temperature for August 10 (70º in 1982).

Speaking of fantasy land, the heat surges back pretty big toward the end of the run on the 00z Euro. 12z GFS sorta hinting at it too once you account for its bias.

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Speaking of fantasy land, the heat surges back pretty big toward the end of the run on the 00z Euro. 12z GFS sorta hinting at it too once you account for its bias.

Ensembles hint at this happening too. Seems mid month will be the next blast of big heat, which makes sense.

In the meantime, I'm going to revel in the goodness that is this coming weekend.

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Dang, I guess I was wrong with my mid 80s prediction. Of course, the moment I said there were clouds inhibiting the warming, they moved out. I was hoping to avoid 90 degree days for the early portion of the month, but of course now Milwaukee is actually warmer than the surrounding areas recently, thanks in part to Lake Michigan bathwater having no cooling effect (if there even was a lake breeze). This cool period better deliver.

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Ensembles hint at this happening too. Seems mid month will be the next blast of big heat, which makes sense.

In the meantime, I'm going to revel in the goodness that is this coming weekend.

12z Euro did a complete reversal in the long range. Eh, I guess that's why it's called fantasy land.

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With our projected high being moved down to 77F tomorrow, currently the next 5 days high are projected in the 70s. This is in the hottest year to date on record in early August. Those famed NE winds are helping now.

From June 15th until now We've only had 7 days with highs in the 70's and 0 in the 60's.. Can't imagine mke has accomplished that more than a couple times if ever.

Getting dried out again out there.. 12z euro teases us with over an inch through fri am.

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Can anyone explain why the GFS has been the "too moist" model all summer? I know that it is not taking into account the drought conditions, but it is spitting out unreasonable amounts with every little hiccup in the atmosphere. Tomorrow is another example of this, as a weak front drops through Northern IN and the GoFfuS shows a line of rain with it. Otherwise, it hasn't been too bad, but it's moisture progs are atrocious.

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A discussion from LOT that is quite interesting. Especially about the part about waterspouts over Lake Michigan Thursday.

WITH THICK CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE WED NGT...TEMPS WILL

REMAIN IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DOWNTOWN. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL

BE PRESENT EARLY THUR WITH THE 500MB VORT MAX APPROACHING THE

FORECAST AREA. THIS COUPLED WITH SOME MARGINAL LLVL INSTABILITY...

WILL RESULT IN STILL A CHC FOR THUNDER. HOWEVER FEEL THE MORE

DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE THE CLOUDS AND STEADY PRECIP. LLVL

FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST THUR...KEEPING TEMPS DOWN. AT THIS

POINT HAVE HELD ONTO TEMPS IN THE MID 70S...HOWEVER COULD SEE TEMPS

IN SOME LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO WARM MUCH BEYOND THE UPR 60S.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TEMP FORECAST FOR THUR.

THE OTHER MORE COMPLICATED WEATHER ISSUE FOR THUR WILL BE THE

POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. WITH VERY WARM LAKE

TEMPS...AND MUCH COOLER AIR ALOFT FLOWING OVERHEAD...LAKE INDUCED

CAPE NEAR 2000J/KG REMAINS PROGGED. THIS HAS NOT DEVIATED MUCH FROM

PREVIOUS FORECASTS. ALONG WITH THE ANTICIPATED OFFSHORE FLOW WILL

CREATE AN OPTIMAL ENVIRONMENT JUST OFFSHORE OF DECENT CONVERGENCE.

COUPLE THIS WITH A THERMAL DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN 850MB TO THE SFC OF

NEARLY 20-25DEC G...AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 30KFT...AND CONDS

BECOME IDEAL FOR WATERSPOUT GENERATION.

IN ADDITION STEADY SHOWERS ALONG WITH POSSIBLY LAKE EFFECT RAIN

SHOWERS THUR/THUR NGT SHOULD PROVIDE WELCOME PRECIP TO MANY AREAS

OF NORTHEAST IL/NORTHWEST IN.

Alek - if you're back by then... get your camera ready!

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Just finished soaking all my tropicals with Miracle-Gro. I've been alternating between Milorganite and Miracle-Gro every week all summer. Couple that with dumping thousands of gallons of water on everything each week and a jungle is the result. And still two good growing months to go!

What you see as you approach on the sidewalk!

733e08b8.jpg

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Just finished soaking all my tropicals with Miracle-Gro. I've been alternating between Milorganite and Miracle-Gro every week all summer. Couple that with dumping thousands of gallons of water on everything each week and a jungle is the result. And still two good growing months to go!

What you see as you approach on the sidewalk!

733e08b8.jpg

That is sweet!

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Just finished soaking all my tropicals with Miracle-Gro. I've been alternating between Milorganite and Miracle-Gro every week all summer. Couple that with dumping thousands of gallons of water on everything each week and a jungle is the result. And still two good growing months to go!

What you see as you approach on the sidewalk!

733e08b8.jpg

Awesome!

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