IWXwx Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 IND juuussst missed 90, topping out at 89 at 5:45 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 The high here today was 85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 855 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2012 /955 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2012/ ..GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FREQUENT DESPITE DROUGHT WHILE THE SEVERE WEATHER SEASON WAS QUIET AT ITS NORMAL PEAK TIME OF SPRING AND EARLY SUMMER ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA...IT HAS BECOME MORE ACTIVE SINCE THE TAIL END OF JUNE. NEARLY 80 PERCENT OF THE PRELIMINARY SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS ACROSS THE NWS CHICAGO COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER /JUNE-AUGUST/ HAVE BEEN CONVECTIVE WIND DAMAGE AND/OR OBSERVED GUSTS. THERE HAVE BEEN APPROXIMATELY 225 PRELIMINARY REPORTS OF EITHER WIND DAMAGE OR SEVERE CRITERIA WIND GUSTS /58 MPH OR STRONGER/ RELAYED TO NWS CHICAGO SINCE JUNE 1ST. SOME OF THE SEVERE WINDS HAVE BEEN EXTREMELY LOCALIZED IN THE FORM OF MICROBURSTS...WHILE OTHERS HAVE BEEN WIDESPREAD WIND EVENTS SUCH AS WHAT TRANSPIRED THIS PAST SATURDAY AUGUST 4TH. THUS IT IS CHALLENGING TO TRY AND QUANTIFY THE NUMBER OF THESE GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS VERSUS A NORMAL AND HAVE IT BE REPRESENTATIVE EVERYWHERE. LOOKING AT PEAK CONVECTIVE GUSTS AT TWO INDIVIDUAL AREA AIRPORTS CAN SHED SOME LIGHT HOWEVER. CHICAGO... SUMMER 2012* 1996-2011 SUMMER AVERAGE DAYS WITH GUSTS >=40 MPH 8 4 DAYS WITH GUSTS >=58 MPH 3 <1 * = THROUGH AUGUST 6TH THE THREE SEPARATE OCCASIONS WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS THIS SUMMER IS THE MOST OF ANY SUMMER AT CHICAGO OHARE AIRPORT DATING BACK TO AT LEAST 1996. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THERE WERE SIX DAYS IN JULY OF THIS YEAR ALONE WITH STORMS PRODUCING 40 MPH OR STRONGER WINDS. THIS TIES WITH JUNE 2008 WITHIN ANY CALENDAR SUMMER MONTH SINCE 1996 TO HAVE AS MANY SUCH DAYS AT OHARE. ROCKFORD... SUMMER 2012* 1996-2011 SUMMER AVERAGE DAYS WITH GUSTS >=40 MPH 6 3 DAYS WITH GUSTS >=58 MPH 1 <1 * = THROUGH AUGUST 6TH ROCKFORD HAD FOUR DAYS WITH 40 MPH CONVECTIVELY INDUCED GUSTS IN JULY ALONE...TYING IT WITH JUNE 1998...JULY 2003...AND JUNE 2008 FOR THE MOST IN ANY ONE SUMMER MONTH. THE MORE FREQUENT GUSTY STORMS CAN BE...AT LEAST IN PART...ATTRIBUTED TO THE PERSISTENT HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE ONGOING VAST DROUGHT HAS LIKELY HELPED KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER DRIER THAN NORMAL THROUGH SIGNIFICANTLY LESS EVAPOTRANSPIRATION FROM WHAT WOULD TYPICALLY BE MOISTURE-LADEN CROPS...WHICH IS WHY THE DEW POINTS HAVE NOT BEEN FREQUENTLY IN THE 70S. DRIER NEAR-SURFACE AIR ALLOWS FOR DEEPER MIXING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND OVERALL HIGHER CLOUD BASES. THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO SUCH AN ENVIRONMENT CAN HAVE A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AS THEIR DOWNDRAFTS READILY ACCELERATE TO THE GROUND. IN ADDITION...THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED STAGNANT HEAT ACROSS THE MIDSECTION OF THE COUNTRY HAS ALLOWED FOR SCENARIOS IN WHICH THE UPPER PARTS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN WELL- MIXED...THROUGH WHAT METEOROLOGISTS CALL AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. STORM GROWTH AND ASSOCIATED WIND STRENGTH CAN DEPEND HEAVILY ON THIS. THE HEAT DOME HAS ALSO ALLOWED FOR THE OCCASIONAL RING-OF- FIRE WEATHER PATTERN ON ITS PERIPHERY...WITH ORGANIZED STORM COMPLEXES REGULARLY CAPABLE OF LONG-LASTING WIND EVENTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 In Chicago, only 3 of the past 61 days (June 7 - August 6) have been below normal. That is remarkable. And the departures on the 3 below normal days were only -5, -4, and -2. Later this week, temperatures may actually drop below normal for a few days in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Down to 64° at 10:40pm. If the EURO is right, Thursday may struggle to get to 70° in the area under clouds and rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Down to 64° at 10:40pm. If the EURO is right, Thursday may struggle to get to 70° in the area under clouds and rainfall. The 12z GFS also indicated that. In fact, it somehow indicated 50s inland in Southern Wisconsin at 18z Thursday. That doesn't seem possible, but if it is consistent, it may need to be taken into account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 7, 2012 Author Share Posted August 7, 2012 In Chicago, only 3 of the past 61 days (June 7 - August 6) have been below normal. That is remarkable. And the departures on the 3 below normal days were only -5, -4, and -2. Later this week, temperatures may actually drop below normal for a few days in a row. If we move the goalposts a little, since June 1...7 days below normal at ORD through today. The summer of 2010 had a total of 12 days below normal at ORD (June 1 through August 31). I'll take the over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 After temps underachieved today, DVN wisely trimmed back max temps for tomorrow. NAM has consistently been showing us reaching well above 100 tomorrow, but it's likely 10+ degrees too warm yet again. From the DVN AFD... ...HOWEVER...AFTER SEEING THE SLOW THERMAL RESPONSE TODAY...HAVE TRIMMED BACK HIGHS A BIT TO A RANGE OF UPPER 80S NORTH TO MID 90S IN THE FAR SOUTH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 The NAM is definitely out of touch. Showing upper 90s in NE IL - that is ~especially since it looks to get under 60° tonight. Near 90° here sounds like a good prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 The NAM is definitely out of touch. Showing upper 90s in NE IL - that is ~especially since it looks to get under 60° tonight. Near 90° here sounds like a good prediction. Yeah it's really gone off the reservation this year. The GFS is just as bad but in the other direction. The only model that comes close is the Euro, the others have their asinine biases. If the NAM had verified this year Hawkeye and I would both have had 30+ 100 degree days by now. For whatever reason the warm bias of the NAM seems to lessen some further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Also, a happy birthday goes out to snowstormcanuck. May this upcoming winter not completely suck in Toronto. This. Happy (belated in your time zone) birthday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 It's called climo. I believe you've had your fun for the spring and summer. August climo says 90s are still possible. Just saying.. Climo also says that this has been such a hot year it is bound to flip or at least alleviate these positive departures at some point soon, that's what I was getting at. lol...climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Yeah it's really gone off the reservation this year. The GFS is just as bad but in the other direction. The only model that comes close is the Euro, the others have their asinine biases. If the NAM had verified this year Hawkeye and I would both have had 30+ 100 degree days by now. For whatever reason the warm bias of the NAM seems to lessen some further east. This might be a little simplistic but I think the longer you've been in drought, the better the NAM has verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 lol...climo. Since it was a poor chasing season as I told you it would be....will you be using the money saved to hook up with your great Bud, Timmer next season for a Extreme Tornado Tour? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 This might be a little simplistic but I think the longer you've been in drought, the better the NAM has verified. That's a good point. The NAM was probably factoring in the dryness feedback of the ground, but a little bit too much in areas that had wetter ground.The 110s that it would show were extreme - east of the Mississippi especially! Things are green here again, so I can't see a very hot day today. Low of 59° this morning. ...Thursday's high has been taken down to 72°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 A nice 70.5F right now. I doubt we make it to our predicted high of 89F with all the clouds this morning, probably mid 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Looks like an awesome stretch starting Thurs... Looks warm today even with winds changing to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 A nice 70.5F right now. I doubt we make it to our predicted high of 89F with all the clouds this morning, probably mid 80s. Yeah cant really see us hitting 90 today. Mid 80's are probably a safe bet, maybe upper 80's depending how long it takes for a lake breeze to kick in. Edit: Both LOT and MKX talking about lake effect thunder showers on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Forecast high of 72 and 73 on Friday and Saturday, respectively....I wouldn't be shocked if there where isolated spots in SEMI that don't make it out of the 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 7, 2012 Author Share Posted August 7, 2012 0z Euro makes for an interesting Friday here in central Indiana. Verbatim, temps would struggle to get into the 70's with showers/rain rotating through. If it verifies, might be jacket weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 0z Euro makes for an interesting Friday here in central Indiana. Verbatim, temps would struggle to get into the 70's with showers/rain rotating through. If it verifies, might be jacket weather. Maybe fire up the furnace? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Yeah cant really see us hitting 90 today. Mid 80's are probably a safe bet, maybe upper 80's depending how long it takes for a lake breeze to kick in. Edit: Both LOT and MKX talking about lake effect thunder showers on Thursday. The delta T's should be good for lake effect that day. Yeah I am thinking upper 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 7, 2012 Author Share Posted August 7, 2012 Maybe fire up the furnace? lol Would feel "cold" though, considering what we've been through this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 0z Euro makes for an interesting Friday here in central Indiana. Verbatim, temps would struggle to get into the 70's with showers/rain rotating through. If it verifies, might be jacket weather. NAM agrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Looks like an awesome stretch starting Thurs... Looks warm today even with winds changing to the north. Even though it's only August you can definitely notice that cold air outbreaks are increasing. We've lost 65-70 minutes of sunlight at our latitudes, polar regions even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Yeah cant really see us hitting 90 today. Mid 80's are probably a safe bet, maybe upper 80's depending how long it takes for a lake breeze to kick in. Edit: Both LOT and MKX talking about lake effect thunder showers on Thursday. Waterspout threat too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 7, 2012 Author Share Posted August 7, 2012 NAM agrees. Well then, lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Well then, lock it up. Will be a nice change, but not before we tack on a couple more 90s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 7, 2012 Author Share Posted August 7, 2012 Will be a nice change, but not before we tack on a couple more 90s. Mid-upper 80's have been a nice change, relatively speaking. Low 70's would be arctic-like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 The delta T's should be good for lake effect that day. Yeah I am thinking upper 80s. Nice NE fetch, Delta T's of +15° and some cape to work with, things could be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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