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August 2012 General Discussion


Chicago WX

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Touched 90° today - basically a carbon copy of yesterday. Lake breeze came in a noon and knocked the temp down about 7°. Went on a hike near the lake - wasn't too bad walking around in the shade - in the sun was a different story! High clouds now streaming in from the west.

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Touched 90° today - basically a carbon copy of yesterday. Lake breeze came in a noon and knocked the temp down about 7°. Went on a hike near the lake - wasn't too bad walking around in the shade - in the sun was a different story! High clouds now streaming in from the west.

You should be looking forward to quite a cooler day and a nice soaker tomorrow. Most of the models support the soaker through much of Southern Wisconsin and Northern Illinois, though the kooky GFS just shifted well south of its previous runs, which were probably all too far north. The GFS is always wrong with its forecast QPF amounts and regions, always on the bullish side. Too bad it's one of the few models that has four runs, because most are garbage from a precip perspective in a weird summer like this one.

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You should be looking forward to quite a cooler day and a nice soaker tomorrow. Most of the models support the soaker through much of Southern Wisconsin and Northern Illinois, though the kooky GFS just shifted well south of its previous runs, which were probably all too far north. The GFS is always wrong with its forecast QPF amounts and regions, always on the bullish side. Too bad it's one of the few models that has four runs, because most are garbage from a precip perspective in a weird summer like this one.

Looking forward to a rainy day. Forecast discussion about tomorrow sounds good - even though the GFS is all over the place!

.TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING MID AND

HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT FALL MUCH LOWER THAN THE

UPPER 60S WITH THE CLOUD COVER.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A

FEW STORMS TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY

SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH AREA OF

STRONGER FORCING...MOVING IT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THOUGH POSSIBLY A BIT TOO MOIST...NAM/GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES

OF AROUND 2 INCHES SUGGEST PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

CURRENTLY EXPECTING RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH RANGE.

WITH CLOUDS AND RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF TOMORROW...BUMPED

HIGHS DOWN A FEW DEGREES.

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Good prob of 90 today.

Isaac hopes squashed by the death ridge. Besides, it's hard to cheer for a washout over the labor day weekend.

For this area and points SW, many would cheer for a washout, even if it is Labor Day weekend.

It's gonna be close for 90, need those clouds to hold off.

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Definitely would take a washout, even if it means over labor day weekend. How many weekends have we had wall to wall sunshine this summer? I think we could sacrifice one weekend.

Nicely said. A one day washout might be good enough if we are talking about tropical moisture. People in drought hit areas will take what rain they can get, when the opportunity arises - even if it is one day over Labor Day weekend.

... Starting to sprinkle here as showers from the west move in. Looks like upper 70s will be a good bet for the high today.

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Nicely said. A one day washout might be good enough if we are talking about tropical moisture. People in drought hit areas will take what rain they can get, when the opportunity arises - even if it is one day over Labor Day weekend.

... Starting to sprinkle here as showers from the west move in. Looks like upper 70s will be a good bet for the high today.

Has started to rain moderately here. Hopefully that massive dry slot region starts to fill in as the anticipated shortwave moving in from Iowa pushes through.

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This system is producing extremely efficient rain. Lamoni, IA is now up to 5 inches this morning with more heavy rain moving in. I think CR is going to be on the northern edge. I'm just hoping for more than a half inch.

Update: Lamoni now up to 7 inches.

Wow. thats quite impressive. That should take out a good chunk out of the rainfall deficit there.

Light rain has started to fall here, looks like we will probably get somewhere between an half inch and an inch of rain today.

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Quite the contrast today compared to the previous several days. The very heavy overcast and the steady rains give it a fall feel. Looks like steady tropical rains the rest of the day. You can tell the PWs are quite high. The rains seem to be very efficient. Up to 0.15" so far, but should break the 1" mark later this afternoon.

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Only got 0.35" out of this system... pretty disappointing. The northern edge is pretty sharp and the heavy stuff just never made it up here. 1+ inches would've been nice heading into another warm, dry week.

After a very promising first half of August, we will finish the month with 30% below normal rain. First half of August 2.70", second half 0.36". Bah.

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Only got 0.35" out of this system... pretty disappointing. The northern edge is pretty sharp and the heavy stuff just never made it up here. 1+ inches would've been nice heading into another warm, dry week.

After a very promising first half of August, we will finish the month with 30% below normal rain. First half of August 2.70", second half 0.36". Bah.

Man you sure have bad luck. There's a report from 2 miles northeast of Cedar Rapids of 2.25".

Up to 1.30". Heavier rains started back up again after a few hour period of mainly lighter rains.

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Man you sure have bad luck. There's a report from 2 miles northeast of Cedar Rapids of 2.25".

Up to 1.30". Heavier rains started back up again after a few hour period of mainly lighter rains.

The 3.15" report from one county east of CR makes sense, but the 2.25 in ne CR doesn't. Radar shows the entire CR metro area got well under an inch.

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The south half of the Chicago Metro area has had pretty good luck recently with rain and storms, unlike the north half and the southern portions of the MKX area.

Yeah that's true. Probably going to be at about 0.25" with this system. Rain has gotten a little bit heavier in the last 10 minutes. As I type this sunlight is coming through the clouds to the west as the sun sets. If Issac rains are coming up here, then the area should see high widespread amounts.

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