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August 2012 General Discussion


Chicago WX

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This 2 day warm-spell ahead of the cool snap was nothing. Underperformed actually. Have we finally turned the corner? Though todays 83/63 just barely qualified as a +1F departure, it was the first above normal day since the 9th (yesterdays 81/61 was a departure of -1F). Now headed for a nice stretch of mid-late September weather with Fall-like low temps. LOVE IT!!!

My high was 78 today and 79.6 yesterday, that makes 8 straight days below 80 degrees. With the going forecast, I might go 15 days straight with high temps below 80 in the middle of august! Not bad.

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Looks like a warmer but not a hot pattern around the 24th. Mid 80's temps which is not bad

Yea most def. It looks like that western ridge attempts to scoot east mid next week. This would most likey plant some low 80s over the lakes region mid/late next week. We shall see.

FWIW. This August is straight out of 1988 play book. Hot summer followed by a relatively "cool" mid August.

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FWIW. This August is straight out of 1988 play book. Hot summer followed by a relatively "cool" mid August.

It hit 100º at DTW on August 17, 1988. Matter of fact, the first 17 days of August 1988 were well above normal...13 days of 90º+. The last 14 days of that month were below normal...only two days with high temps of 80º, the rest were in the 70's (with a 69º on 8/23). Effectively, the high heat of summer 1988 ended on August 17 for Detroit, as September was exactly normal in 1988.

August 1988 at DTW: http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS-7DC5D1E5-4DCB-46CF-A096-BC17F24A7956.pdf

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Even the mighty Euro (OP and ensembles) isn't always correct. Granted it's fantasy land, but a cautionary example of taking any model at face value past 6-7 days.

0z Euro from August 9 for today (ensemble mean on the left, OP on the right).

And reality. Just a bit outside. Though to be fair, the ensemble mean for the Aug 9 run was a little closer to reality at 240 hours.

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Yea most def. It looks like that western ridge attempts to scoot east mid next week. This would most likey plant some low 80s over the lakes region mid/late next week. We shall see.

FWIW. This August is straight out of 1988 play book. Hot summer followed by a relatively "cool" mid August.

Looks like Wed-Friday will flirt with 80. Then back into the mid to low 70's.

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Picture perfect day today, 73°, mostly sunny skies and low dewpoints! Temperatures should fall off quickly once the sun sets ready to set. 87 minutes of daylight lost now since the solstice.

-0.71° for August 1-17th.

Edit: 10:30pm - already at 55°. Upper 40s easily within reach tonight!

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That is a crazy UHI effect, Thundersnow, when O'Hare, which isn't even that close to the lake, reported 63F around the same time and Batavia, not far away, was more than 10F lower. It's 55.8F here, 59F at the airport, and 46F in Waukesha.

Yeah some nice gradients in these situations from ARR/my house to back near ORD and the city. Plus my neighborhood kinda sits down in a small valley.

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DTW was 52F this morning but everyone away from the water and the UHI was well into the 40s, including 45F at FNT and 44F at DTX. This mornings record low was missed by 6F, it hit 46F in 1977 and 1981, but interestingly, those were both in the days when DTW was a radiating magnet and now its a UHI magnet...so Id venture to guess the general airmass over SE MI was similar in all 3 years. (1977-78 and 1981-82 were also two excellent winters ;) )

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