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August 2012 General Discussion


Chicago WX

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RPM model brings a MCS through S WI, N IL, N IN, and SW MI early in the morning. Not set in stone at all, but it was showing 1-1.5" of rain by the looks of it.

First 80° day in over a week. Felt hot today. High 86°, low 61°. Looking forward to the next cool shot.

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RPM model brings a MCS through S WI, N IL, N IN, and SW MI early in the morning. Not set in stone at all, but it was showing 1-1.5" of rain by the looks of it.

First 80° day in over a week. Felt hot today. High 86°, low 61°. Looking forward to the next cool shot.

That line of storms just NW of LaCrosse might be our chance if it can grow. I'm pretty sure the LLJ will play a part in this.

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That line of storms just NW of LaCrosse might be our chance if it can grow. I'm pretty sure the LLJ will play a part in this.

Skilling showed it evolving from that area.

New piece from LOT:

.DISCUSSION...

832 PM CDT

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY TRENDS FOR THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.

FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK TONIGHT WITH THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS

INCREASING OVERNIGHT AS WAVE DEVELOPS ON FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW

LEVEL JET DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST. WOULD EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO FILL

IN OVER NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT...THEN

MOVE INTO WESTERN CWA IN THE PREDAWN HOURS...LIKELY IN A DECAYING

STATE AS THE LLJ BEGINS TO VEER AND FORCING WEAKENS. BMD

MKX:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

921 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2012

.UPDATE...

LATEST 4 KM WRF MODEL RUNS STILL TAKE AN RATHER STRONG MCS ACROSS

THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER THIS IS

ALL BASED ON PRE 00Z NEW UPPER AIR DATA. STILL 0-1 KM CAPE VALUES

ARE AROUND 1600/2000 J/KG OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...SO THE STORMS

ARE JUST NOW REACHING THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR. 00Z NAM MAX 0-1 KM

CAPE VALUES DO DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE AXIS

OF INSTABILITY PUSHES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS SLOW TO INCREASE...REACHING ONLY 35 KNOTS BY

SUNRISE IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE INCREASING 250 MB JET MAX

DOES NOT REACH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

SPC DROPPED THE FORECAST FROM SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE...THAT SEEMS

REASONABLE.

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Wisconsin-

Yes...its immediate. I can pretty much tell by my nose how high the levels are...yesterday was great...almost nothing, but something got stirred up today and the rain didn't help. Ragweed can travel long distances and one plant releases huge amts of pollen. Whats is strange is yesterday was a south wind (usually bad), while today is NW...

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Wisconsin-

Yes...its immediate. I can pretty much tell by my nose how high the levels are...yesterday was great...almost nothing, but something got stirred up today and the rain didn't help. Ragweed can travel long distances and one plant releases huge amts of pollen. Whats is strange is yesterday was a south wind (usually bad), while today is NW...

One would think a cooler, moister NW flow would be better as you are implying, but I guess the strength of the wind blowing around the particles overcomes that in a negative way.

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Managed to get 0.78" of rain today actually. (6.51" since 06.01) High 76°. Predicted low is now 48° for tomorrow night!

Ragweed was bad yesterday for me, but today it wasn't even present to speak of. When I see a ragweed plant in the yard I'm sure to pull it up in short order!

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This 2 day warm-spell ahead of the cool snap was nothing. Underperformed actually. Have we finally turned the corner? Though todays 83/63 just barely qualified as a +1F departure, it was the first above normal day since the 9th (yesterdays 81/61 was a departure of -1F). Now headed for a nice stretch of mid-late September weather with Fall-like low temps. LOVE IT!!!

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