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August 2012 General Discussion


Chicago WX

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Had a storm total of 1.68" from this storm (assuming nothing falls tomorrow in the backwash). Over 5 3/4 inches since July 22. Amazing 180 this summer has done.

And add me to those amazed by the totals in the Saginaw Valley. I was watching DTX radar frequently during this storm to gauge upstream returns. From what I recall, there was very little convection involved up that way. Seemed to be just a persistent deluge of deformation zone driven heavy rain. Aside from tropical/extra-tropical systems, I don't think I've ever seen such impressive totals in the Lakes region that didn't rely heavily on training convection.

Yeah this really was incredible in the sense that it wasn't convective in nature. Even the rain bands I drove through from home to toronto on Friday were all heavy but steady and no thunder at all

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The forecast for some sun in the morning was a bust. 100% overcast. Low 56° this morning. Looks like you members in MI will have some sun today! Enjoy :)

Edit: It is funny how the GFS and NAM orientate the rain band tomorrow two different directions!

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Was driving this morning and saw a waterspout. Luckily I had my camera in my car and was able to snap these. By the time I got to the lakeshore a few minutes later it had dissipated, but there must have been 10-15 people with cameras lined up along the beach cliff taking pictures.

7766988536_b171af33d7.jpg

7766995256_6410df4309.jpg

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH

133 PM EDT SUN AUG 12 2012

LEZ146-166-121830-

133 PM EDT SUN AUG 12 2012

...WATER SPOUTS POSSIBLE NEAR CLEVELAND...

AT 130 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED

SOME WEAK SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE OF CLEVELAND. THERE HAS BEEN A

RECENT REPORT OF A FUNNEL.

THIS AREA OF TOWERING CUMULUS AND VERY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE

TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WATERSPOUTS. WATERSPOUTS CAN

DEVELOP QUICKLY AND HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO CAPSIZE SMALL BOATS.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COAST GUARD. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT

TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

LAT...LON 4151 8201 4163 8200 4177 8151 4165 8146

4158 8155 4155 8156 4154 8162 4147 8174

4149 8177 4147 8184

$$

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I ended up with 3.25" off the last low that stalled over detroit, the weird thing is the GFS has been consistent being the most NW model (including ensembles) for this storm coming monday afternoon / night. very weird the GFS being the most NW model usually it suppresses everything south and east!

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CR maxed at 67 a couple hours ago, falling to the current 63. It has been cloudy, dead calm, and sprinkly all day. It is the coolest day since May 31st and I'm loving it. I'm just sitting at the window with one eye on the PGA Championship and the other on the hummers chasing back and forth across the backyard. Hummingbirds love this kind of weather. I'm also hoping for a good 0.50-1.00" rain tonight.

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High 76° this afternoon, under almost completely cloudy skies. Wet looking day tomorrow - thinking it might struggle to get to 70° here after reading it didn't get out of the 60s in eastern Iowa! GFS has 2"+ here and the NAM has ~1.25".

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High 76° this afternoon, under almost completely cloudy skies. Wet looking day tomorrow - thinking it might struggle to get to 70° here after reading it didn't get out of the 60s in eastern Iowa! GFS has 2"+ here and the NAM has ~1.25".

GFS has been absolute garbage with precip locations and amounts recently, it has had this system progged well north for several runs of what it will absolute be, so what a horrible tease.

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GFS has been absolute garbage with precip locations and amounts recently, it has had this system progged well north for several runs of what it will absolute be, so what a horrible tease.

Yeah the GFS is having a hard time with these systems. Not sure what to think about the higher rainfall amounts. Last system did bring very generous amounts to MI. NAM and EURO probably the models to follow at this point.

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High 76° this afternoon, under almost completely cloudy skies. Wet looking day tomorrow - thinking it might struggle to get to 70° here after reading it didn't get out of the 60s in eastern Iowa! GFS has 2"+ here and the NAM has ~1.25".

GFS has been absolute garbage with precip locations and amounts recently, it has had this system progged well north for several runs of what it will absolute be, so what a horrible tease.

Yeah the GFS is having a hard time with these systems. Not sure what to think about the higher rainfall amounts. Last system did bring very generous amounts to MI. NAM and EURO probably the models to follow at this point.

Some of you will never learn...

Other than showing if models have development, talking about/posting maps of QPF during the summer months is fairly pointless.

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It's true, making QPF forecasts with a model of 27 km horizontal resolution during convection season is a convective feedback disaster. Instead of getting convective updrafts on the scale of square km you get updrafts with a minimum area of 729 km^2, and often you will end up with many grid cells simultaneously convecting along any given boundary since thermal profiles are juicy this time of year.

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It's true, making QPF forecasts with a model of 27 km horizontal resolution during convection season is a convective feedback disaster. Instead of getting convective updrafts on the scale of square km you get updrafts with a minimum area of 729 km^2, and often you will end up with many grid cells simultaneously convecting along any given boundary since thermal profiles are juicy this time of year.

What's the resolution of the EURO and NAM?

Was making a point more so on the position of the rain on GFS, not really the QPF. I know not everyone is going to see 2" amounts. Can't wait for the non-convective rains of fall so widespread areas can benefit as a whole!

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