dmc76 Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Kind of interesting watching the DTX's radar you can see the showers moving both E and W at the same time. Going to be a rainy night tonight with that next batch of heavy rain moving in from the West. Can't wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 9, 2012 Author Share Posted August 9, 2012 No way I'd bet that the heat is done. The worst of it? Probably, but given the repeating tendency this summer and in past summers like this, just not very wise imo. Here is where we are so far this month: No real reason to think this general layout won't continue, with the better chances for less warmth (relative to average) the farther north you go. Better check with Chad. He'll deliver the goods for you heat mongers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 thats like saying no more cold in early feb. Sent from my iPhone. Go weed your Ridiculous looking front yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Better check with Chad. He'll deliver the goods for you heat mongers. Since you refuse to read him , Chad is implying if not saying that the heat comes back late August/early September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 That is weird. I could see the heavier echoes moving SW around here on radar embedded within the general batch of rain moving NE. When they moved overhead, they were brief downpours that appeared convective. I thought maybe it was lake effect. Oh there is most certainly a lake enhancement going on today with the low-level flow out of the NE crossing the warm waters of the Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 9, 2012 Author Share Posted August 9, 2012 Since you refuse to read him , Chad is implying if not saying that the heat comes back late August/early September. I get my fill of kookiness on this forum. Anyways, time is a tickin'. Dream summer getting into its late stages... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Hard to believe we're almost to mid Aug already and in about 2 months the tree's up north will have most their leaves covering the forest floor and with a lot of luck a repeat of Oct 12th 2006 that dropped feets of snow on parts of the UP and buffalo. Even had our first measurable snow here. That winter went on to smell like warminista's cheese sacks here though. I could live with another mild fall too and let winters wrath arrive with great stamina in Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Go weed your Ridiculous looking front yard. In the past it's looked nice..That thing is hideous looking this yr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 I think the heat from this point forward will be fairly tame compared to last month. Given that the ENSO signals I think the fall won't be ridiculously warm into October like it has been. Far as today - it is great to have waves of heavy rain moving through with occasional thunder. 0.83" through 6:45pm. About 64° currently with low ceilings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman1952 Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 It is surprising how fast August is going. Today's weather here really feels like fall. So far .94" of rain has fallen. Looks like lots more is to come, and I'll gladly take it. Mike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Looks like we're done for awhile and will have to hope for stuff to come onshore. Pack has their first exhibition game tonight. Just another sign time is nearing the icepu$$ies time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Yeah the DTX radar loop is pretty kooky right now. Showers moving in every direction lol. Looks like a line from Saginaw to Grand Rapids may end up with the heaviest rain tonight, or at least the longest duration of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 That is weird. I could see the heavier echoes moving SW around here on radar embedded within the general batch of rain moving NE. When they moved overhead, they were brief downpours that appeared convective. I thought maybe it was lake effect. Looks like showers are coming off Lake Huron and moving WELL inland. I have a line closing in on me now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Clear blue skies here..but man it is chilly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Sounds like the organized lake rains and waterspouts will kick into gear overnight. OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT PUSHES EAST ACROSS INDIANA THE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO OHIO. STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL LEAD TO H85 TEMPS FALLING BELOW 10C WITH SURFACE-850 DELTA TS GRADUALLY INCREASING TO NEAR 15C BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LAKE INDUCED CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG AT TIMES ASSUMING LAKE TEMPS AROUND 73C //SOUTH BUOY IS NEAR 76F NOW//. NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THINKING AS FAR AS THE WATER SPOUT POTENTIAL GOES...STILL LOOKING AT A FAVORABLE SETUP WITH DEEP CONVECTION EXPECTED AND STRONG INSTABILITY. FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS BEGIN TO BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS QUEBEC AND SHOULD SHIFT ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS EAST INTO INDIANA/MICHIGAN. Tornado sighted near Brook, IN! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Today's high of 73* for DTW, which occurred just after midnight, is the lowest maximum temperature since June 5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Sounds like the organized lake rains and waterspouts will kick into gear overnight. Tornado sighted near Brook, IN! A steady batch of lake effect rain showers is approaching Sheboygan from the NNE, moving SSW along/near the shore. I think this batch will be the main show, with other isolated thundershowers near the shore ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Huge change here over the last hour or so. Was near 80 with some mixed sun and towering cumulus around 6. Temps have crashed back into the mid 60s with a stiff northeast wind. The sky is now steel gray with fast moving low-level stratus. Feels pretty good after a hot summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 10, 2012 Author Share Posted August 10, 2012 Pic doesn't do it complete justice, and my shaky hands don't help, but here's what it looked like with the storm from earlier. Can barely make out the trees in the distance, that are about 1000 feet or so from balcony. Visibility got a little worse for a time after I took this photo. The water going over the car port is kinda cool though. You can tell it's been boring, as this is my most exciting weather event in months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Now that the stratiform-convective-ish precip is moving out, the waterspout threat should increase with new the convective development out over the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 We got a surprisingly potent little storm this evening that knocked out the power for an hour. I didn't bother moving my container plants this time and, fortunately, nothing was broken in the ~40 mph gusts. With the increased rain and cooler temps lately the grass is greening up again. We've had nearly as much rain so far in August as all of June and 50% more than all of July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Just had one of the best sunsets I've seen here... There was also a rainbow to the east. Had a bad view of it though, so I didn't add it below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 FWIW, looks like DVN's all in on a cooler than average August... OVERALL... IT APPEARS WE ARE UNDERGOING A REMARKABLE PATTERN CHANGE TO MEAN CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH THAT VERY WELL COULD RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR AUGUST FOR MUCH OF THE DROUGHT STRICKEN AND BAKED MIDWEST. 06Z GFS 2M TEMP ANOMALY (AVG) THROUGH 384 HRS (06Z 8/25) SHOWS ENTIRE CENTRAL CONUS BELOW AVERAGE WITH IA/IL/MO/KS/OK/AR SHOWN TO AVERAGE 4C TO 6C BELOW. Although there are a couple of signals (teleconnection-related) that MAY suggest a pattern change, this reasoning is a bit flawed, in my opinion. The GFS 2-m temperature anomaly at 384 h? If that forecaster's prog were correct, it'd be for the wrong reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Excellent photos Joe! Didn't get to see anything like that here. Almost looks like the sky is on fire! --- Strong wording from LOT regarding rough waters of Lake Michigan: SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 848 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2012 ILZ003>005-008-010>013-019>023-032-033-039-INZ010-011-019-100400- WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-DUPAGE-LA SALLE- KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-IROQUOIS-FORD-NEWTON- JASPER-BENTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCKFORD...BELVIDERE...WOODSTOCK... OREGON...DIXON...DEKALB...AURORA...WHEATON...OTTAWA...OSWEGO... MORRIS...JOLIET...KANKAKEE...PONTIAC...WATSEKA...PAXTON... MOROCCO...RENSSELAER...FOWLER 848 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2012 /948 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012/ ...STAY AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN... LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE A DANGEROUS PLACE FOR RECREATIONAL BOATERS...SWIMMERS...KAYAKERS...AND THRILL SEEKERS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. EVERYONE IS URGED TO STAY AWAY FROM THE LAKE. BIKERS...JOGGERS...AND WALKERS SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION ALONG THE LAKEFRONT. STAY OFF OF PIERS AND BREAK WALLS. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND NEARBY LAKESHORE AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE STRONG WINDS WILL GENERATE WAVES OF UP TO 10 TO 14 FEET FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE INDIANA BEACHES. INSTABILITY CAUSED BY UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR MOVING OVER THE VERY WARM LAKE WATER WILL ALSO MAKE WATERSPOUTS LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE WATERSPOUT THREAT WILL DIMINISH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING OUT BY FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT DANGEROUS WAVES AND RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. ANYONE LOOKING FORWARD TO BOATING OR GOING TO THE BEACH SHOULD WAIT UNTIL SUNDAY...WHICH WILL SEE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...LIGHT WINDS....AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Although there are a couple of signals (teleconnection-related) that MAY suggest a pattern change, this reasoning is a bit flawed, in my opinion. The GFS 2-m temperature anomaly at 384 h? If that forecaster's prog were correct, it'd be for the wrong reasons. Congrats on the move and good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Hard to believe we're almost to mid Aug already and in about 2 months the tree's up north will have most their leaves covering the forest floor and with a lot of luck a repeat of Oct 12th 2006 that dropped feets of snow on parts of the UP and buffalo. Even had our first measurable snow here. That winter went on to smell like warminista's cheese sacks here though. I could live with another mild fall too and let winters wrath arrive with great stamina in Nov. I would be perfectly fine with this, anything to keep the lakes as warm as possible as late as possible before winter and the lake effect bonanza that could occur this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 I would be perfectly fine with this, anything to keep the lakes as warm as possible as late as possible before winter and the lake effect bonanza that could occur this year. I really don't think Bowme would want that, I told him earlier that I think that would mean some screwjobs near the lake as late as January due to the warm lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 I really don't think Bowme would want that, I told him earlier that I think that would mean some screwjobs near the lake as late as January due to the warm lake. Possible though I don't think that is truly that big of a problem unless you literally live within a stone's throw of the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Wow at the sunset photos Joe. Awesome catch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Possible though I don't think that is truly that big of a problem unless you literally live within a stone's throw of the lake. Being on the south side of the metro and about 5 miles from the lake, it seems to already make a difference for him. If we had an above average fall (let's say an average of 2-3 degrees above normal overall), I would guess the water temps at the start of winter would be 3-5 degrees warmer than normal for that time of the year. Hard to think that doesn't have an impact, but maybe it is panic for no reason. Back to August, though, when I was talking about a change, I was moreso talking about a change toward a typical month temperature wise for once, which seems likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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