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August 2012 General Discussion


Chicago WX

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69 right now and we've picked up a measly 0.01" since yesterday

I hope you guys can get some sweet pics later tonight into tomorrow

Nice discussion. Cloudy here so far today. High of 73° so far today.

6z NAM is particularly impressive for the shoreline counties with rainfall.

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Well, here's a switch:

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR...

CENTRAL VERMILLION COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...

NORTHERN PARKE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...

SOUTHERN FOUNTAIN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...

SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...

* UNTIL 900 AM EDT

* AT 347 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED

THAT OVER 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN IN THE PAST FEW HOURS AT

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA. WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCHES OF

RAIN HAD FALLEN ELSEWHERE.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...

NORTHEASTERN HENDRICKS COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...

NORTHERN MARION COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...

SOUTHERN HAMILTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...

* UNTIL 800 AM EDT

* AT 426 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED

THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF THE ADVISORY

AREA. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO THE ADVISORY

AREA. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN

IN PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS IS

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN THAT FELL YESTERDAY EVENING.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING TO

OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND NEAR LOW WATER

CROSSINGS. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING

INCLUDE...BROWNSBURG...CARMEL...FISHERS AND SPEEDWAY.

Better than nothing but might be a case of too much too fast?

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Morning AFD from Izzi regarding the LE rain/storm and waterspout potential...

THE SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP IN DEFORMATION ZONE

THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT.

HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO

CONTINUE OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA THROUGH THE

NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS DISCUSSED THE PAST FEW DAYS...LAKE

EFFECT PARAMETERS BECOME EXCEPTIONALLY FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION

AND EVEN WATERSPOUTS. RECENT WORK FROM WADE SZILAGYI HAS FOUND THAT

CONTRARY TO PREVIOUS BELIEFS...WATERSPOUTS CAN FORM IN WINDY

SITUATIONS...SO DESPITE THE PROGGED INCREASE IN WINDS TONIGHT AND

ESPECIALLY FRIDAY WATERSPOUT POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS RATHER HIGH.

GIVEN THE BRISK ONSHORE FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT/INSTABILITY

ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP 500MB LOW WOULD THINK THE CHANCE OF ONE OF

THESE WATERSPOUTS SNEAKING ONSHORE AS A BRIEF TORNADO MIGHT BE A BIT

HIGHER THAN USUAL AS WELL...THOUGH PROBABLY STILL A RATHER REMOTE

PROBABILITY.

GRADUALLY BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW FRIDAY SHOULD RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT

PRECIP TAKING AIM MORE ON NORTHWEST INDIANA WITH TIME WITH

DECREASING INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY PROBABLY RESULTING IN A

DECREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THE LAKE EFFECT DURING THE

AFTERNOON. LAKE EFFECT MAY BECOME REINVIGORATED A BIT NOCTURNALLY

FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH WITH FLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY NORTHWESTERLY

IT SHOULD TAKE AIM ON AREAS FARTHER EAST AND EVENTUALLY OUT OF OUR

CWA MOST LIKELY BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. IF SLOWER/FARTHER WEST WRF-NAM

SOLUTION VERIFIES THEN THE WATERSPOUT POTENTIAL COULD LINGER INTO

FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH ECMWF/GFS BOTH FARTHER EAST AND MORE

PROGRESSIVE WITH UPPER LOW HAVE OPTED TO RESTRICT MENTION TO JUST

THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT BELT IT LOOKS

LIKELY A BREEZY/WINDY DAY WITH FAIRLY EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS

DECK...ESPECIALLY EASTERN CWA CLOSER TO THE UPPER COLD POOL. WORTH

MENTIONING THAT WITH NORTHEAST TO NORTH GALES EXPECTED FRIDAY AND

STRONG INSTABILITY POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR VERY LARGE WAVES TO BUILD UP

(10-14FT CURRENTLY PROJECTED) WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME MINOR

LAKE SHORE FLOODING IN TYPICALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS. WILL PASS THIS

CONCERN ONTO THE DAY SHIFT AND LET THEM RE-EVALUATE THE NEED FOR A

POSSIBLE LAKE SHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

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Same here, this is the opposite of some of the recent rains, where the radar presentation looks more impressive than reality. We're talking 15-25 dbz returns, but it is a steady moderate rain.

Same here. These low lake clouds aren't picked up on radar as easily. Extra moisture in the lower levels.

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Fwiw, per 12Z Euro, big cool shot for this time of year ~8/17-20 for much of Midwest/Lakes. The cool airmass brings 850's as much as 20 F below normal in the upper MW.

Ohhhhh Baby, can already see it about to dive south at day 7

:wub: :wub: :wub:

:thumbsup:

ecmwfNA_850_temp_168.gif

Absolute MONSTER trough for this time of the year.

Days 8-10 are unbelievable :weenie:

:thumbsup:

12Z GFS has it too!!!!!!

gfsUS_850_temp_216.gif

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