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August 2012 General Discussion


Chicago WX

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0.16" of rain so far and the temperature has been steadily declining to about 70 °F. We're expected to get down into the low 60s which should be nice, and so begins the cool spell. Cold air advection should kick in sometime overnight with the coldest low level temps occurring Friday across Wisconsin. Cooler air stays in place until Sunday, at which point a weaker cool air mass is going to move in. This is so much better than Florida in the summer.

Dropped to 68 °F at the airport as I was typing this!

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High was 79° today. Thick clouds and light showers have ruled since about 3:15pm.

WRF NMM showing heavier pockets of rain over the next 48 hours for most of the subforum area. Northern IN kinda misses out.

hrw-nmm_eus_048_precip_p48.gif

The delta T's predicted over Lake Michigan tomorrow are really impressive!

THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO

DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS EAST INTO NORTHERN OHIO WITH STRONG COLD

ADVECTION TAKING HOLD OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS. H85 TEMPS ARE PROGGED

TO FALL IN THE 7-8C RANGE OVER THE REGION CREATING UNSEASONABLY

STRONG INSTABILITY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. SFC-H7 DELTA T`S IN EXCESS OF

25C AT TIMES CREATING LAKE INDUCED CAPE VALUES OF NEAR 1500 J/KG

WILL LEAD TO LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER LAKE

MICHIGAN. VERY CLASSIC SETUP FOR WATERSPOUTS SHOULD BE IN PLACE.

UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA FRIDAY...WITH

MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

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0.94" of rainfall at IND tonight through 10:00pm. Up to 2.45" now for August...3.37" for summer.

Also this from Hendricks County. Impressive.

0953 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 WSW CLERMONT 39.80N 86.39W

08/08/2012 M2.33 INCH HENDRICKS IN AMATEUR RADIO

2.33 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN 30 MINUTES NEAR 10TH STREET

AND COUNTRY CLUB ROAD.

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Latest NAM run shows lower MI getting the bullseye for rain ~especially around Grand Rapids. Pretty good rains along the western shoreline of LM as well with lake effect. Skilling showed 1-2" of rain for NW IN to Milwaukee.

nam_namer_066_precip_ptot.gif

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Latest NAM run shows lower MI getting the bullseye for rain ~especially around Grand Rapids. Pretty good rains along the western shoreline of LM as well with lake effect. Skilling showed 1-2" of rain for NW IN to Milwaukee.

Other than showing if models have development, talking about/posting maps of QPF during the summer months is fairly pointless.

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Looks like SeMi might be in the jackpot for heavy rain as we progress forward. Yuck week in a awesome summer so far. 12z ECMWF turns the heat on early/mid next week or so it tries.

Its amazing how far from this sentiment I'm at.

Its too hot to golf (enjoyably), garden, mow, run, jog, be outside.

Great summer we are having.

:thumbsdown:

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Other than showing if models have development, talking about/posting maps of QPF during the summer months is fairly pointless.

This isn't your typical summer system though. It resembles something from spring or fall with its wrapped up nature. Looking at simulated radar, there looks to be a clear deformation band forming as the storm passes south of Chicago.

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This isn't your typical summer system though. It resembles something from spring or fall with its wrapped up nature. Looking at simulated radar, there looks to be a clear deformation band forming as the storm passes south of Chicago.

Yeah, but I understand his point. These short term hi-res models are convectively driven and probably (hopefully not, though) overdone.

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Well, here's a switch:

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR...

CENTRAL VERMILLION COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...

NORTHERN PARKE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...

SOUTHERN FOUNTAIN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...

SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...

* UNTIL 900 AM EDT

* AT 347 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED

THAT OVER 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN IN THE PAST FEW HOURS AT

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA. WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCHES OF

RAIN HAD FALLEN ELSEWHERE.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...

NORTHEASTERN HENDRICKS COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...

NORTHERN MARION COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...

SOUTHERN HAMILTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...

* UNTIL 800 AM EDT

* AT 426 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED

THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF THE ADVISORY

AREA. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO THE ADVISORY

AREA. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN

IN PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS IS

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN THAT FELL YESTERDAY EVENING.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING TO

OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND NEAR LOW WATER

CROSSINGS. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING

INCLUDE...BROWNSBURG...CARMEL...FISHERS AND SPEEDWAY.

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69 right now and we've picked up a measly 0.01" since yesterday

THE MOST INTERESTING ASPECT OF THIS EVENT WILL BE THE INFLUENCE OF

LAKE MICHIGAN. THE AIRMASS WITH THIS UPPER LOW IS COLD ENOUGH TO

BRING DELTA T VALUES OF 13-15C THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH A

FAVORABLE FETCH AND CYCLONIC FLOW...WE SHOULD SEE SOME IMPRESSIVE

LAKE ENHANCEMENT. THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELDS CRANK UP BY EARLY

AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE ARRIVAL OF FRONT...THEN

REMAIN IMPRESSIVE OVERNIGHT ALONG THE SHORELINE. MOST OF THE MODELS

REALLY FOCUS SOME IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR OUR LAKE SHORE

COUNTIES. IF ONLY THIS WAS DECEMBER...

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A SLAM DUNK FOR WATERSPOUTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO

FRIDAY MORNING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THE TWO MAIN PARAMETERS...NEAR

15C DELTA T/S AND DEEP CONVECTIVE CLOUD LAYER /TO 20-25KFT/...WILL

BE MET...COUPLED WITH A TIGHT AND VIGOROUS UPPER LOW. AUGUST AND

SEPTEMBER IS OUR CLIMATIC MAX FOR WATERSPOUTS. THE SZILAGYI

WATERSPOUT INDEX /SWI/...A GOOD AND EASY TO UNDERSTAND PAPER AND

NOMOGRAM IS OUT THERE ON THE INTERNET...IS AT THE TOP OF THE CHART

FOR THIS EVENT. WE NEED AN SWI OF GREATER THAN ZERO TO GET

WATERSPOUTS. THE INDEX GOES TO 10 AND WE ARE GETTING VALUES OF 8-10.

IMPRESSIVE. NOW WE WAIT AND SEE.

I hope you guys can get some sweet pics later tonight into tomorrow

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Updated through 8:00am: 1.54" at IND since last night, through 8:00am this morning. Getting closer (3.05" total at the moment) to the "normal" amount of rainfall for the month of August there, which is 3.13". The last month to have average or above average precipitation at IND was March.

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