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August 2012 General Discussion


Chicago WX

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Just finished soaking all my tropicals with Miracle-Gro. I've been alternating between Milorganite and Miracle-Gro every week all summer. Couple that with dumping thousands of gallons of water on everything each week and a jungle is the result. And still two good growing months to go!

What you see as you approach on the sidewalk!

733e08b8.jpg

That is pretty cool! At least this hot summer has been good for something.

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Does the yard look familiar to that of south Florida? :)

Yup, we used to have a banana tree forest and all those other tropical plants look familiar. Good yard work for real, but it's going to be crazy to insulate all that.

Banana trees cannot handle cold btw, at all. They totally burn and whither, that was the fate of my banana tree forest :(

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Yup, we used to have a banana tree forest and all those other tropical plants look familiar. Good yard work for real, but it's going to be crazy to insulate all that.

Banana trees cannot handle cold btw, at all. They totally burn and whither, that was the fate of my banana tree forest :(

Everything is dug up in October and stored bare root in my basement. Only thing left outside is the palms.

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Even the 0z NAM keeps most of Wisconsin and far northern Illinois around or below 70 on Thursday. When even the super warm NAM is on your side for relatively low highs, that's a good sign.

Thursday's system looks like a widespread soaker for the Lower Lakes. Haven't seen that since May 31st.

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Thursday's system looks like a widespread soaker for the Lower Lakes. Haven't seen that since May 31st.

I would agree, but as always someone will be left out of the rainfest. I'm worried because now the GFS has been almost dryslotting much of Wisconsin the last couple runs. I'd be happy with a half inch, and current projections from HPC indicate near an inch.

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I would agree, but as always someone will be left out of the rainfest. I'm worried because now the GFS has been almost dryslotting much of Wisconsin the last couple runs. I'd be happy with a half inch, and current projections from HPC indicate near an inch.

GFS is definitely the southern most of the models. EURO and NAM are close together with the axis of heaviest rain. I think no matter what- we will see lake effect rain.

We need a parade of these types of system to give everyone in this subforum drought relief.

MKX talking about some good rainfall totals for the area.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM ERN IA INTO CENTRAL IL WED NT

WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH MOVING SEWD ALONG THE MO RIVER

VALLEY. MEANWHILE AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL

MOVE SWD FROM CANADA INTO NRN MN BY 12Z THU AND TRACK ALONG THE MS

RIVER THROUGH THU EVENING. LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BEING

AIDED BY INCREASING DIFF CVA WILL BRING SHOWERS AND TSTORMS TO THE

AREA. PWS WILL RANGE FROM 1.1 TO 1.5 INCHES WITH EXPECTED RAINFALL

AMOUNTS OF 0.50-1.00 INCHES. THE HIGHER TOTALS WILL BE IN SE WI

OVER THE LAKE COUNTIES. A WARM LAKE MI WILL AID IN PCPN EFFICIENCY

DUE TO GREATER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE AWAY

ON FRIDAY WITH DRY AIR AND COLD ADVECTION....BUT LAKE EFFECT

SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN FAR SE WI FOR FRI AM. OTHERWISE PARTLY

CLOUDY TO MO SUNNY SKIES AND PLEASANT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED.

Edit: Brewers mentioned Delta T's around 15°C late Thursday over the lake. (EURO supports that) That is quite unstable for summer time!

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GFS is definitely the southern most of the models. EURO and NAM are close together with the axis of heaviest rain. I think no matter what- we will see lake effect rain.

We need a parade of these types of system to give everyone in this subforum drought relief.

MKX talking about some good rainfall totals for the area.

You're right, and the LSX (St Louis) WRF is going hog wild with the lake effect rain like you and MKX mentioned. Those NE winds could sure help us come Thursday, and at the least, it will be cool.

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Just finished soaking all my tropicals with Miracle-Gro. I've been alternating between Milorganite and Miracle-Gro every week all summer. Couple that with dumping thousands of gallons of water on everything each week and a jungle is the result. And still two good growing months to go!

What you see as you approach on the sidewalk!

733e08b8.jpg

Brave man. I'd be worried about some moron walking down the street with a machete with them so close to the sidewalk lol.

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How can this from, Izzi not make you want to touch yourself repeatedly.

MOTHER NATURE IS POISED TO GIVE US A BREAK FROM HOT AND DRY WEATHER

WITH A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGES ALREADY UNDER WAY ACROSS THE WESTERN

HEMISPHERE. HIGHLIGHTS LOCALLY WILL INCLUDE WHAT LOOKS TO BE A

POTENTIALLY FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL...AN UNSEASONABLY

SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT RAIN EVENT...BIGGEST SUB-AVERAGE TEMPS IN

OVER 2 MONTHS...AND POTENTIAL WATERSPOUT OUTBREAK ON LAKE MICHIGAN.

GROWING QUITE METEOROLOGICALLY TINGLY OVER THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS PROGGED TO CLOSE OFF A MID LEVEL

CIRCULATION OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. STANDARDIZED

ANOMALIES AT OR BELOW -3 SIGMA ARE PROGGED FOR 500MB HEIGHTS

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AN INDICATION OF JUST HOW STRONG/RARE

OF AN EVENT WE ARE LOOKING AT. THE RESULT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY

COLD LOW AND MID LEVEL TEMPS BECOMING JUXTAPOSED OVER THE

UNUSUALLY WARM LAKE SETTING THE STAGE FOR WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN

IMPRESSIVE OUT OF SEASON LAKE EFFECT EVENT.

LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS

THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT BECOMES LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AS WE

TRANSITION FROM LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO A PURE LAKE EFFECT EVENT INTO

NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE LAKE-850MB DELTA T

VALUES AT OR ABOVE 15C THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH

LAKE INDUCED CAPE OF 1500+ J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS NEAR/ABOVE

30K FEET. LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE

LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SPOTS OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS GIVEN PWATS

OVER 1" AND FREEZING LEVELS OVER 10K FT. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME

DIURNAL WANING OF THE LAKE EFFECT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE IT

POTENTIALLY RAMPS BACK UP AGAIN NOCTURNALLY FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS

WILL BE BACKING MORE NORTHERLY WITH TIME FRIDAY NIGHT LIKELY

SENDING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MORE INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA.

IN ADDITION TO THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...THREAT OF WATERSPOUTS

EXISTS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...WITH THE THREAT LOOKING

PARTICULARLY HIGH DURING THE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING TIME

FRAME. FOR LAST SEVERAL DAYS NOW MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO

ADVERTISE A SET-UP THAT LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST AS FAVORABLE FOR

WATERSPOUTS AS LAST SEPTEMBER'S "SPOUT-APALOOZA" (9/24/2011).

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How can this from, Izzi not make you want to touch yourself repeatedly.

MOTHER NATURE IS POISED TO GIVE US A BREAK FROM HOT AND DRY WEATHER

WITH A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGES ALREADY UNDER WAY ACROSS THE WESTERN

HEMISPHERE. HIGHLIGHTS LOCALLY WILL INCLUDE WHAT LOOKS TO BE A

POTENTIALLY FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL...AN UNSEASONABLY

SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT RAIN EVENT...BIGGEST SUB-AVERAGE TEMPS IN

OVER 2 MONTHS...AND POTENTIAL WATERSPOUT OUTBREAK ON LAKE MICHIGAN.

GROWING QUITE METEOROLOGICALLY TINGLY OVER THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS PROGGED TO CLOSE OFF A MID LEVEL

CIRCULATION OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. STANDARDIZED

ANOMALIES AT OR BELOW -3 SIGMA ARE PROGGED FOR 500MB HEIGHTS

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AN INDICATION OF JUST HOW STRONG/RARE

OF AN EVENT WE ARE LOOKING AT. THE RESULT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY

COLD LOW AND MID LEVEL TEMPS BECOMING JUXTAPOSED OVER THE

UNUSUALLY WARM LAKE SETTING THE STAGE FOR WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN

IMPRESSIVE OUT OF SEASON LAKE EFFECT EVENT.

LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS

THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT BECOMES LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AS WE

TRANSITION FROM LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO A PURE LAKE EFFECT EVENT INTO

NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE LAKE-850MB DELTA T

VALUES AT OR ABOVE 15C THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH

LAKE INDUCED CAPE OF 1500+ J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS NEAR/ABOVE

30K FEET. LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE

LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SPOTS OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS GIVEN PWATS

OVER 1" AND FREEZING LEVELS OVER 10K FT. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME

DIURNAL WANING OF THE LAKE EFFECT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE IT

POTENTIALLY RAMPS BACK UP AGAIN NOCTURNALLY FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS

WILL BE BACKING MORE NORTHERLY WITH TIME FRIDAY NIGHT LIKELY

SENDING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MORE INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA.

IN ADDITION TO THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...THREAT OF WATERSPOUTS

EXISTS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...WITH THE THREAT LOOKING

PARTICULARLY HIGH DURING THE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING TIME

FRAME. FOR LAST SEVERAL DAYS NOW MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO

ADVERTISE A SET-UP THAT LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST AS FAVORABLE FOR

WATERSPOUTS AS LAST SEPTEMBER'S "SPOUT-APALOOZA" (9/24/2011).

Too bad I am going to miss it and too bad this isn't mid-winter.

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This lake waterspout event sounds awesome! Might have to go down to the lake front early Friday and see what's going on. Impressive instability over the lake for this time of year. If this was winter we'd be talking about major snow totals.

Sitting at about 74° currently with high clouds streaming in.

Impressive qpf amounts for MI in the next 72 hours from the NAM.

NAM_221_2012080806_F72_PCPIN_72_HR.png

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