Geos Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 RPM model brings a MCS through S WI, N IL, N IN, and SW MI early in the morning. Not set in stone at all, but it was showing 1-1.5" of rain by the looks of it. First 80° day in over a week. Felt hot today. High 86°, low 61°. Looking forward to the next cool shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman1952 Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 lots of low 70's for highs are called for her after tomorrow. Hope we get some storms with this system. Looks pretty dry the next 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 On 8/16/2012 at 3:09 AM, Geos said: RPM model brings a MCS through S WI, N IL, N IN, and SW MI early in the morning. Not set in stone at all, but it was showing 1-1.5" of rain by the looks of it. First 80° day in over a week. Felt hot today. High 86°, low 61°. Looking forward to the next cool shot. That line of storms just NW of LaCrosse might be our chance if it can grow. I'm pretty sure the LLJ will play a part in this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 On 8/16/2012 at 4:08 AM, wisconsinwx said: That line of storms just NW of LaCrosse might be our chance if it can grow. I'm pretty sure the LLJ will play a part in this. Skilling showed it evolving from that area. New piece from LOT: Quote .DISCUSSION... 832 PM CDT ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY TRENDS FOR THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK TONIGHT WITH THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING OVERNIGHT AS WAVE DEVELOPS ON FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST. WOULD EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO FILL IN OVER NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT...THEN MOVE INTO WESTERN CWA IN THE PREDAWN HOURS...LIKELY IN A DECAYING STATE AS THE LLJ BEGINS TO VEER AND FORCING WEAKENS. BMD MKX: Quote AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 921 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2012 .UPDATE... LATEST 4 KM WRF MODEL RUNS STILL TAKE AN RATHER STRONG MCS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER THIS IS ALL BASED ON PRE 00Z NEW UPPER AIR DATA. STILL 0-1 KM CAPE VALUES ARE AROUND 1600/2000 J/KG OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...SO THE STORMS ARE JUST NOW REACHING THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR. 00Z NAM MAX 0-1 KM CAPE VALUES DO DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY PUSHES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS SLOW TO INCREASE...REACHING ONLY 35 KNOTS BY SUNRISE IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE INCREASING 250 MB JET MAX DOES NOT REACH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SPC DROPPED THE FORECAST FROM SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE...THAT SEEMS REASONABLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Nice storm moving through, heavy rain, continuous thunder and lightning, probably 40-45 mph wind gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 typical decaying summer style line coming in...decent area of rain behind it so we should see that soaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 It's pouring outside with frequent thunder and lightning, should be able to get at least 0.50" out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Thunder, lightning, and starting to rain here. No wind though. About 30mph winds. Up to 40mph I'd say now. Almost pitch black here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 The line of storms solidified just in time to hit CR pretty good. I ended up with 0.91". I've now received more rain in August(2.70") than the previous two months combined. The next week will be dry, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 .16 of rainfall here... 70Fs for the next 5 days... very nice. I see we are -2F for the month so far... West coast looks to bake (Portland/Seattle)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxhstn74 Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Hint of fall right on schedule: http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2012/08/first-hint-of-autumn-right-on-schedule.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Quality soaker this morning, probably a fat .6 or so, should help keep things lush for the upcoming stunner of a weekend...this summer really turned around on a dime here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Outflow almost here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 About 2/3rd's of an inch here this morning. Some cool C-C lightning visible while going to work this AM. About 71 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 On 8/16/2012 at 5:14 PM, Geos said: About 2/3rd's of an inch here this morning. Some cool C-C lightning visible while going to work this AM. About 71 now. Similar situation here. Hard to believe we've had average or above average precip for the last month, and average temperatures for the last half month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Strong low level cold air advection... 13 °C at 850 hPa over Madison, 8 °C over La Crosse, and 4 °C in the coldest air up in northern MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Clouding up good... Had some blue earlier Ragweed is horrible today...can barely stay outside with this strong NW wind... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 On 8/16/2012 at 6:30 PM, daddylonglegs said: Clouding up good... Had some blue earlier Ragweed is horrible today...can barely stay outside with this strong NW wind... I guess your almost 2/10 of an inch was not enough rain. Can you feel the effects immediately? For me, it doesn't take effect until about 5-10 hours after exposure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 16, 2012 Author Share Posted August 16, 2012 Round two for the day ongoing here right now. Much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 On 8/16/2012 at 7:06 PM, Chicago WX said: Round two for the day ongoing here right now. Much appreciated. Clouds/precip really derailed what could've been a pretty warm day. Anyway, maybe, just maybe our first 40s Friday night? Weak high settles in...radiational cooling looks nearly ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Wisconsin- Yes...its immediate. I can pretty much tell by my nose how high the levels are...yesterday was great...almost nothing, but something got stirred up today and the rain didn't help. Ragweed can travel long distances and one plant releases huge amts of pollen. Whats is strange is yesterday was a south wind (usually bad), while today is NW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 On 8/16/2012 at 7:37 PM, daddylonglegs said: Wisconsin- Yes...its immediate. I can pretty much tell by my nose how high the levels are...yesterday was great...almost nothing, but something got stirred up today and the rain didn't help. Ragweed can travel long distances and one plant releases huge amts of pollen. Whats is strange is yesterday was a south wind (usually bad), while today is NW... One would think a cooler, moister NW flow would be better as you are implying, but I guess the strength of the wind blowing around the particles overcomes that in a negative way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 16, 2012 Author Share Posted August 16, 2012 On 8/16/2012 at 7:30 PM, Hoosier said: Clouds/precip really derailed what could've been a pretty warm day. Anyway, maybe, just maybe our first 40s Friday night? Weak high settles in...radiational cooling looks nearly ideal. Rainy day>>>>>>pretty warm day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Pretty much a cloudy day here. Cold front moving through is starting to drop dewpoints. About 75 for a high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Temp has been declining since 2 pm despite sun, 72 °F. The 3 day forecast couldn't be nicer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Got skipped over here. Only 0.06". MLI only mustered 0.13" and DVN 0.20". MLI now almost 8" down since June 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Managed to get 0.78" of rain today actually. (6.51" since 06.01) High 76°. Predicted low is now 48° for tomorrow night! Ragweed was bad yesterday for me, but today it wasn't even present to speak of. When I see a ragweed plant in the yard I'm sure to pull it up in short order! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 16, 2012 Author Share Posted August 16, 2012 0.67" of rainfall for IND today, through 7:00pm. Up to 4.87" on the month currently, which is good for the 28th wettest August on record, since 1871. April 17 to July 31, a period of 106 days, had 4.74" total at IND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 This 2 day warm-spell ahead of the cool snap was nothing. Underperformed actually. Have we finally turned the corner? Though todays 83/63 just barely qualified as a +1F departure, it was the first above normal day since the 9th (yesterdays 81/61 was a departure of -1F). Now headed for a nice stretch of mid-late September weather with Fall-like low temps. LOVE IT!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Picked up 0.25" of rain here and 0.39" at ORD with the morning activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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