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July 22-27 Severe Potential


hm8

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Went out to the country to shoot some distant lightning from the tops to the northwest. Very frequent lightning, but most of it was inside the clouds. Got a few okay shots, but most of them were pretty crappy.

Might have to go sit outside when that outflow hits here. Still 88 out.

Still getting several 50-60mph wind reports from time to time. With most of the cells behind the outflow the chances for gusts over 70mph seem limited.

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Things got CRAZY when the OFB came through, tropical like downpour and tons of wind. The wind got so strong it created a vortex on the street between the buildings that looked like a tornado, everyone started screaming and even I ran inside. Doubt it was the real deal though, just a gust vortice. Might've been 60 mph or higher winds in that thing tho, debris was flying through the air.

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The Michigan storms are looking pretty lame as of right now. I'm wondering if the problem could be that the storms are oriented parallel to the 0-6km flow. If that's the case, I wonder if the SW-NE oriented line segment from White Cloud to Big Rapids can strengthen. There's still plenty of shear and instability available...

There is a new bow line that has unzipped and is blasting SE. This is what was expected and will only get better throughout the night.

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There is a new bow line that has unzipped and is blasting SE. This is what was expected and will only get better throughout the night.

Yes. That is the line I was talking about. It is now severe warned, and I agree with you...that is going to be the main show from here on out.

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Went out to the country to shoot some distant lightning from the tops to the northwest. Very frequent lightning, but most of it was inside the clouds. Got a few okay shots, but most of them were pretty crappy.

Might have to go sit outside when that outflow hits here. Still 88 out.

Still getting several 50-60mph wind reports from time to time. With most of the cells behind the outflow the chances for gusts over 70mph seem limited.

I tend to agree with the last sentence. Nice looking boundary on the DVN radar though.

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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1045 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2012

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

1044 PM CDT

CURRENTLY WATCHING A MULTICELLULAR LINE OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS

IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN IN THE VICINITY OF AN APPROACHING

COLD FRONT. STARTING FROM A LOW CENTERED NEAR SHEBOYGAN...THE COLD

FRONT STRETCHES SOUTHWEST ACROSS IOWA THROUGH KANSAS AND INTO THE

OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. AHEAD OF THE STORMS AND THE FRONTAL ZONE LIES

THE MOSTLY UNTOUCHED WARM SECTOR WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE

MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. DEEP LAYER

SHEAR IS RELATIVELY SMALL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT A 30-40KT LOW

LEVEL JET IS SEEN IN VWP DATA AROUND THE 925-850MB LEVELS. THIS

JET IS SUPPORTING BETTER SHEAR AT THE LOWER LEVELS...AS WELL AS

CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO FUEL ONGOING CONVECTION.

MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG ARE BALANCED BY DCAPE VALUES OF

1500-1600...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED DAMAGING WIND

GUSTS AS PRESENTLY SEEN OVER IOWA.

ONE QUESTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WILL BE WHETHER THE

COLD POOL MANAGES TO OUTRUN THE EXISTING CONVECTION AND SHUT OFF

THE MOST FAVORABLE INFLOW. WHERE THIS IS OCCURRING TO OUR WEST

THE CONVECTION IS FALLING APART QUICKLY. OVERALL THE SYSTEM

MOTION...THE NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND THE COLDEST CLOUD

TOPS TO OUR NORTHWEST PRESENTLY SEEM TO BE SLIDING NORTHEAST

ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. THIS MOTION IS ALSO PREDICTED BY THE

DIRECTION OF THE FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS.

EVEN IF THE EXISTING CONVECTION DISSIPATES BEHIND THE OUTFLOW OR

SLIDES TO OUR NORTH...THE STRENGTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES

APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR GENERATING NEW CONVECTION DUE WEST OF

OUR AREA SOUTH OF I-80. CORFIDI VECTORS FOR THIS ACTIVITY WOULD

SUPPORT A MORE EASTERLY MOTION INTO THE LOCAL CWA.

GIVEN THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA...HIGH PWAT VALUES...AND

THE OVERALL EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION...HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE

FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN TO BE MONITORED OVERNIGHT.

ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST IS DEEMED CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 2-3 INCHES PER

HOUR. HOPEFULLY WE WILL NOT GO FROM ONE OF THE DRIEST JULYS TO ONE

OF THE WETTEST IN JUST ONE NIGHT LIKE WE DID ALMOST EXACTLY ONE

YEAR AGO.

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Storms transitioned to the typical post-outflow bubbliness before reaching Cedar Rapids. We got a few decent gusts, but nothing major.

61mph at the airport south of town. A few other 60mph reports, and one 70mph estimate 1 mile south-southeast of town. Best gusts must have just missed you.

The storms themselves over eastern Iowa are on the downtrend, but the outflow is still very stout as it blasts east into the boiling heat that still remains.

EDIT: Iowa City gusting to 56mph from just the outflow. Pretty impressive.

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If the airport had 60 mph and a couple miles se of me in town had 70 mph, maybe I'm just underestimating wind gusts. I heard a couple gusts smack the side of the house, but when I looked out it had died down and I didn't see any sign of tree/plant debris, so I assumed it was no more than 40-50 mph. I guess I'll find out if the wind was stronger when I check the garden tomorrow.

Update: There's a report of a traffic light down a couple miles north of me as well, so obviously there were some good gusts near me.

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61mph at the airport south of town. A few other 60mph reports, and one 70mph estimate 1 mile south-southeast of town. Best gusts must have just missed you.

The storms themselves over eastern Iowa are on the downtrend, but the outflow is still very stout as it blasts east into the boiling heat that still remains.

EDIT: Iowa City gusting to 56mph from just the outflow. Pretty impressive.

Looks to be producing a ton of rain, no doubt! Hopefully these mid to upper 80s won't go to waste tonight!

Ol' Saukville getting it pretty good right now!

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Yeah, I'm not feeling so great about things right now. Bow and I may be on convection suicide alert lol (or in his case, just rain).

The storms in back of it look healthy. The lake is so warm that it will probably have no affect on them!

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MCS in N. MI seems to be having trouble becoming oriented more parallel to the mean flow, which was one of the caveats the SPC mentioned to a more widespread wind event. That being said convection is still trying to fire south along the OFB through GRR.

It also looks as if showers are starting to pop up on radar further south in the state. Some volatile parameters around the metro detroit area, could get reaaalll interesting if those showers manage to become discrete cells moving into the area...

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MCS in N. MI seems to be having trouble becoming oriented more parallel to the mean flow, which was one of the caveats the SPC mentioned to a more widespread wind event. That being said convection is still trying to fire south along the OFB through GRR.

It also looks as if showers are starting to pop up on radar further south in the state. Some volatile parameters around the metro detroit area, could get reaaalll interesting if those showers manage to become discrete cells moving into the area...

this..

I too have been pondering that possibility all night. Only thing to impede this would be the warm lid above. Per the KDTx sounding it looks modest too.

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Cell near West Bend, WI has gone severe.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

WIC027-039-131-260500-

/O.NEW.KMKX.SV.W.0062.120726T0439Z-120726T0500Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

1139 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

NORTHEASTERN DODGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...

SOUTHEASTERN FOND DU LAC COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT

* AT 1136 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND

DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR

THERESA...OR NEAR MAYVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...

CAMPBELLSPORT AND KEWASKUM AROUND 1150 PM CDT.

WEST BEND AIRPORT AROUND 1155 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE

KOHLSVILLE...ASHFORD...WAYNE AND NEW FANE.

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