on_wx Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Moderate risk issued for Michigan stops at the Canadian border but the OSPC has a moderate for southern Ontario tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 Moderate risk for wind across MI on the new outlook, tornado probs expanded as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Moderate risk for wind across MI on the new outlook, tornado probs expanded as well. You can just feel the instability brewing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Environment Canada OSPC just issued a severe tstorm watch for 12 counties in Southwestern Ontario. They are using pretty bold wording in the discussion saying this is a "significant threat". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 They need a tornado warning East of Cadillac on that cell too. The one to the Northeast of still has rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Still think the severe weather stays north of 94 tonight. Detroit/Ann Arbor may miss out until tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Hard not to panic when your best chances for storms are decaying storms that are currently slowly moving through W and C Iowa, if they even make it far enough north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Looking decent for our Cedar Rapids friends. Nice slew of warning boxs opened up in iowa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I literally had to laugh when I saw that clip! Bravo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Nice slew of warning boxs opened up in iowa Those storms out in Iowa are hauling ass. Moving/propagating much quicker than I thought they would earlier. Wouldn't be surprised to see them organize further and produce a wide swath of damaging winds north of route 30 east all the way into northern IL/southern WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 The whole system looks to be forming into more of a solid line, and turning SE. The system itself reminds me of 7/17/06, which I believe was the last E-W oriented MCS that tracked SE across Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Those storms out in Iowa are hauling ass. Moving/propagating much quicker than I thought they would earlier. Wouldn't be surprised to see them organize further and produce a wide swath of damaging winds north of route 30 east all the way into northern IL/southern WI. models are pretty insistent on the forcing going to shut long before they get this far east...but who knows maybe the complex can become mature enough that it won't matter...instability shouldn't drop off too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Those storms out in Iowa are hauling ass. Moving/propagating much quicker than I thought they would earlier. Wouldn't be surprised to see them organize further and produce a wide swath of damaging winds north of route 30 east all the way into northern IL/southern WI. did not expect ia to light up quite this much lol, wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 The HRRR showed this turning right and heading toward the southeast on their original model valid earlier. Has anything changed that would inhibit that from happening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 models are pretty insistent on the forcing going to shut long before they get this far east...but who knows maybe the complex can become mature enough that it won't matter...instability shouldn't drop off too much. wonder if they will quickly be coming with a new severe t storm watch to the current one's east.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 models are pretty insistent on the forcing going to shut long before they get this far east...but who knows maybe the complex can become mature enough that it won't matter...instability shouldn't drop off too much. I'm hoping the cool pool development, and that interacting with the intense heat still out ahead of the convection will keep them quickly propagating eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Those storms out in Iowa are hauling ass. Moving/propagating much quicker than I thought they would earlier. Wouldn't be surprised to see them organize further and produce a wide swath of damaging winds north of route 30 east all the way into northern IL/southern WI. The best thing I have going for me is limited expectations out here....hopefully it gets it acts completely together before 10 or so.... also happy for the in-laws up in NW IL....they haven't seen a drop there in quite some time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 models are pretty insistent on the forcing going to shut long before they get this far east...but who knows maybe the complex can become mature enough that it won't matter...instability shouldn't drop off too much. they have a little time to mature....work off a cold pool and it can go for a little longer than expected.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 The HRRR showed this turning right and heading toward the southeast on their original model valid earlier. Has anything changed that would inhibit that from happening? With well-organized systems like tonight's, I find that the 0-6 km bulk shear vectors are usually a pretty good indication of where the system is heading. Tonight, they would suggest that areas north of I-96 will be hit pretty hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormDude81 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I said yesterday that there could be a moderate risk for Great Lakes area, wind or tornado threat, but wind seemed more probable Here's a map i made with estimated paths using data from the 18z GFS, NAM, and HRRR model runs, with google earth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I think the IA storms will head east into northern IL, maintain intensity from the cold pool, and be fascinating to watch tonight. SPC meso discussion out now for eastern IA/nw IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I think the IA storms will head east into northern IL, maintain intensity from the cold pool, and be fascinating to watch tonight. i'd like to see that lol. would definitely need to head north if that were the case.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I'm hoping the cool pool development, and that interacting with the intense heat still out ahead of the convection will keep them quickly propagating eastward. I think the IA storms will head east into northern IL, maintain intensity from the cold pool, and be fascinating to watch tonight. Cold pool has a long ways to go but I like your thinking. LOTs 8 pm update was interesting and they seem to be coming around...def worth watching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1594 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0840 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL AND SERN IA / NWRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 260140Z - 260245Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...SEVERE WIND THREAT WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS E-CNTRL IA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS AN APPROACHING LINEAR TSTM COMPLEX APPROACHES THE AREA. DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST HR ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL WINDSHIFT IN CNTRL IA EXTENDING NEWD TOWARDS THE MS RIVER. THESE STORMS HAVE INTENSIFIED AND ARE BEGINNING TO POSE AN ISOLD WIND RISK. FARTHER W...AN ORGANIZED LINEAR COLD POOL/TSTM COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E IN TANDEM WITH THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT. AS SUCH...CURRENT THINKING IS THE SEVERE WIND RISK WILL SPREAD DOWNSTREAM ACROSS E-CNTRL IA AND PERHAPS NWRN IL LATE THIS EVENING. ..SMITH/GUYER.. 07/26/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 sounds good for cyclone land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Severe Thunderstorm Watch out for the entire DTX forecast area, except for the southernmost tier of counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 839 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... BOONE COUNTY IN CENTRAL IOWA... HAMILTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL IOWA... SOUTHWESTERN HARDIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL IOWA... STORY COUNTY IN CENTRAL IOWA... WEBSTER COUNTY IN CENTRAL IOWA... * UNTIL 945 PM CDT * AT 836 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES WEST OF WEBSTER CITY TO 5 MILES WEST OF STORY CITY TO HUXLEY...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... HUXLEY...STORY CITY...WEBSTER CITY...JEWELL...NEVADA...WEBSTER CITY AIRPORT...RANDALL...CAMBRIDGE...KAMRAR...ROLAND...ELLSWORTH... MAXWELL...MCCALLSBURG...BLAIRSBURG...COLO...COLLINS...RADCLIFFE... ZEARING...HUBBARD AND BUCKEYE. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 103 AND 146. THIS IS A LONG DURATION WIND EVENT. WIND MAY GUST MULTIPLE TIMES OVER A HALF HOUR. WINDS HAVE BEEN ESTIMATED TO 65 MPH IN BOONE COUNTY WITH TREE AND POWER LINE DAMAGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Severe Thunderstorm Watch out for the entire DTX forecast area, except for the southernmost tier of counties. Just heard that on my NOAA receiver. Time to dig out the scanners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Have my doubts about the current activity maintaining itself but we'll see, atleast this far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Nice wind probabilities on the watch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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