on_wx Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Well, let's see here... it's 2330Z at the time of writing. The HRRR model has a large bow echo from Tawas to here in Flint and westward toward GRR by 0200Z. That gives 2.5 hours for something to pop up somewhere in WI and hightail it's butt all the way down here. I'm just NOT seeing this happen with what convection is currently on radar. I'm no meteorologist, nor do I play on on TV. But unless there is something I just don't see in all this, I'd say this stupid cap is being very stubborn to erode. The soil being dry as brick can't really help matters either. It's like it takes a dark orange echo on radar just to get sprinkles to the ground here. Everything just burns up on the way down. If the cap finally DOES crack though, I expect all hell to break loose. According to the SPC it's only 2300z right now? A storm has popped up west of Green Bay in the last twenty minutes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted July 25, 2012 Author Share Posted July 25, 2012 Well, let's see here... it's 2330Z at the time of writing. The HRRR model has a large bow echo from Tawas to here in Flint and westward toward GRR by 0200Z. That gives 2.5 hours for something to pop up somewhere in WI and hightail it's butt all the way down here. I'm just NOT seeing this happen with what convection is currently on radar. I'm no meteorologist, nor do I play on on TV. But unless there is something I just don't see in all this, I'd say this stupid cap is being very stubborn to erode. The soil being dry as brick can't really help matters either. It's like it takes a dark orange echo on radar just to get sprinkles to the ground here. Everything just burns up on the way down. If the cap finally DOES crack though, I expect all hell to break loose. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Intense line of storms across western IA pushing east, should organize into an MCS as the outflow pools coagulate. I think this is the one we've been waiting for. way far out and pretty far south for the Wisconsin crew...that needs to build north or there will be some unhappy campers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 way far out and pretty far south for the Wisconsin crew...that needs to build north or there will be some unhappy campers. I think Bow and I are past the point of no return, so no matter anyway. I'm close (another day or two of no or very little rain) away from stopping wasting my days model watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Intense line of storms across western IA pushing east, should organize into an MCS as the outflow pools coagulate. I think this is the one we've been waiting for. Man... those cells are just creeping along due east... at a snail's pace. Of course they would be as the current sfc map shows the front is stationary right through there. If that does organize, it'll be in the wee hours when that gets to SEMI. Of course, if it organizes, I expect it to pick up some speed while it rides the north edge of the ring, That would spit it out into Lake Michigan somewhere between Green Bay and Milwaukee. Could be the same scenario as teh HRRR, just several hours delayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Man... those cells are just creeping along due east... at a snail's pace. Of course they would be as the current sfc map shows the front is stationary right through there. If that does organize, it'll be in the wee hours when that gets to SEMI. Of course, if it organizes, I expect it to pick up some speed while it rides the north edge of the ring, That would spit it out into Lake Michigan somewhere between Green Bay and Milwaukee. Could be the same scenario as teh HRRR, just several hours delayed. IMO there's no way those Western IA cells will even come close to affecting us. It's probably development in WI or bust for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 way far out and pretty far south for the Wisconsin crew...that needs to build north or there will be some unhappy campers. I'd be surprised if it didn't build north once we get that density current going. The MCS maintenance parameter favors that sort of evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Tupperware lid over the SeMi region. Prob have another 6-10 hours before anything gets going. Tomorrow looks very interesting for 94 south esspecially into NEO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 One microcell just east of Stevens Point finally broke the cap. If storms can build SW from there, tonight can still be salvaged from a storm standpoint for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 New cell going up west of Albert Lea, MN. More cells going up along the front in WI. http://tempest.aos.wisc.edu/radar/wicompflash.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 IMO there's no way those Western IA cells will even come close to affecting us. It's probably development in WI or bust for us. I think I agree like 125% on that. And "bust for us" does seem to be the norm lately. Unless something grabs them by the booboo, they'll probably peter out 40 miles west of chicago or something like that. It's one of those, as they say, "there's a lotta green on that shot" things! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 New cell going up west of Albert Lea, MN. More cells going up along the front in WI. http://tempest.aos.w...icompflash.html Nice radar! I think I'll use it more often. You can see where the line might continue to develop, and both Madison and Milwaukee have time for storms to develop along this likely line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Tupperware lid over the SeMi region. Prob have another 6-10 hours before anything gets going. Tomorrow looks very interesting for 94 south esspecially into NEO. More like "pressure cooker lid" IMO. All I want is some stinkin' rain! POP goes the weasel!!! Looky there!!! Cells broke through in WI! OMG!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I think I agree like 125% on that. And "bust for us" does seem to be the norm lately. Unless something grabs them by the booboo, they'll probably peter out 40 miles west of chicago or something like that. It's one of those, as they say, "there's a lotta green on that shot" things! Want to wait until the night is over before throwing around the bust card... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Want to wait until the night is over before throwing around the bust card... Right... in the last 12 seconds while I typed that, cells popped the cap in WI! :D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1590 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0625 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN WI INTO MUCH OF LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 252325Z - 260100Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...SEVERE HAIL AND /MORE SO/ DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE THIS EVENING WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM EAST-CENTRAL WI INTO A LARGE PART OF /ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/ LOWER MI. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SOON. DISCUSSION...A RECENT/SLOW INCREASE IN THE CU FIELD/INITIALLY NON-LIGHTNING PRODUCING RADAR ECHOES HAS BEEN NOTED IN CENTRAL WI SINCE 2230-2300Z. THIS IS OCCURRING IN VICINITY OF A SURFACE LOW AND ADJACENT COLD/WARM FRONT TRIPLE POINT...WITH SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS MAXIMIZED ACROSS FAR EASTERN WI INTO MUCH OF LOWER MI. WHILE THE REGION HAS REMAIN CAPPED THIS AFTERNOON UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT/WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING...A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE/SPEED MAX IN VICINITY OF SOUTHERN MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOULD INFLUENCE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...IN ADDITION TO A NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION INTENSIFICATION IN VICINITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONTAL ZONE. A RELATIVELY STRONG NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS /INCLUDING HIGH RES CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS/ SUGGESTS SUSTAINED SEVERE TSTMS...INCLUDING SOME SUPERCELLS...IS PROBABLE PRIOR TO STORMS CONGEALING/LIKELY UPSCALE GROWTH THIS EVENING INTO LOWER MI...WITH A DISTINCT DAMAGING WIND THREAT POSSIBLE. ..GUYER/MEAD.. 07/25/2012 ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...GRB...MKX... LAT...LON 44438935 44898784 44648547 44298396 43768329 42808361 42648540 43318909 44438935 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Everyone can stop panicking now, all systems are a go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Cells now popping near Traverse City.... Watch issued for a good part of Central MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 some pretty nasty cell with the warm front blowing up over west central OH and heading east on i-70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Everyone can stop panicking now, all systems are a go. Hard not to panic when your best chances for storms are decaying storms that are currently slowly moving through W and C Iowa, if they even make it far enough north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 some pretty nasty cell with the warm front blowing up over west central OH and heading east on i-70 That cell appears to have split with the Southern section making a right turn and headed toward me--- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 BV of 75 kts at 1200 feet on the severe warned storm in NE Wisconsin... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 That cell appears to have split with the Southern section making a right turn and headed toward me--- Watching it from my patio. Was seeing a big anvil with mammatus that stretched way across the sky over my house. Constant thunder too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Some cool outflow interactions on DSM radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Winds outta the SW have picked up. It's going to Rick and roll latter tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Tornado warning out for Wexford County in Northern MI. That storm has had weak rotation for over half an hour now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Looking decent for our Cedar Rapids friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Moderate Risk upgrade for much of Central MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 The structure that I am seeing from the Dayton storm right now from my back yard is awesome. It's dying but for a while there it was showing supercellular structure. Only other times I have seen that in person was in Nebraska and The Bahamas. Made my night . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I can at least see the tops of the towering cumulus/cumulonimbus from the Manitowoc County storm out my window looking to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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