Boogieman Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 A nice hole opened up in the cloud deck that was over us all morning while we took the dog out for a walk. Boy, the temp sure shot up fast once that sun came out. Nice movie of the OFB BTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Can't wait for Turtle reporting flash flooding in Madison and then watch the radar returns collapse east the next 45mins I have my fingers and toes crossed that this is not the case this time. Thing we have going for us vs a week ago is much more instability, even into the evening hours. We shall see, HRRR looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Eastern Wisconsin and northern Illinois added to day 2 outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Weird look to the northern end of the Day 2 around here, big ole MDT out east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Eastern Wisconsin and northern Illinois added to day 2 outlook And SEMI... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormDude81 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Appears to be a large MCS (possibly Derecho) that will cross Michigan into Ontario, and it appears to be some supercells in Eastern Ohio, during the late evening into early morning hours, interesting situation at the very least and also a large Day 2 Moderate Risk for tomorrow from E IN into OH, and further northeast into PA/NY/New England tomorrow, and impressive two to three day severe event is ready to start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 HRRR has a pretty nice bow echo blowing through here around 03z. It's trucking along too, as it was still along a line from somewhere between Flint and Saginaw to somewhere between Grand Rapids and Lansing at 02z. In any event, I'm still not getting my hopes up just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 So far, the HRRR is pretty much on target, if perhaps a little ahead of what is on radar. The present system is tracking pretty much right through the Straits area, and what lines and cells make it ashore are breaking up in short order. Not much to see here... We'll have to see what that band south of Escanaba does. Looks like it'll come onshore just north and west of the TC area. The convection that's over N WI and the western UP seems pretty unremarkable ATM. I'm guessing that this is the area that the HRRR ramps up into a bow echo moving SE in the 19-20z frames. If so, it's not popping as hard as the model suggests. But there's still another 6 hours to go before it approaches the DTX CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 That cell is tracking a bit more eastward than it appeared. It's coming onshore around Charlevois and seems to have dropped a lot of it's dark orange and pretty much all of it's red already. I guess we'll see what happens with it in the next 20 minutes or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Wow. Not gonna lie, i am a bit concerned about tomorrow. My main question is what is the convective mode going to be in Ohio? SPC seems to be hinting more of a MCS/Wind event. However, some have compared this to June 6, 2010, which was a supercell/tornado event. Maybe a mix of the two? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Wow. Not gonna lie, i am a bit concerned about tomorrow. My main question is what is the convective mode going to be in Ohio? SPC seems to be hinting more of a MCS/Wind event. However, some have compared this to June 6, 2010, which was a supercell/tornado event. Maybe a mix of the two? lol this is not that much like june 5/6th 2010.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 94 °F here, up to 101 °F to the west in Boscobel. Cap must be stronger than anticipated since that exceeds the projected convective temp yet there are no clouds to speak of, so the real convective temp is obviously higher. This is a good setup for building instability though, just need some sort of trigger in the next 6 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Wow. Not gonna lie, i am a bit concerned about tomorrow. My main question is what is the convective mode going to be in Ohio? SPC seems to be hinting more of a MCS/Wind event. However, some have compared this to June 6, 2010, which was a supercell/tornado event. Maybe a mix of the two? Wind profiles tomorrow afternoon around here look nearly unidirectional. I'd have a hard time believing we'll see supercells. Maybe along the warm front in the Northeast, but not here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 And it begins... MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1587 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0257 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NRN WI...FAR WRN MI CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 251957Z - 252200Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...RAPID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT DEVELOPING. THIS THREAT COULD BECOME ORGANIZED AND MOVE EWD INTO LOWER MI LATER THIS EVENING. DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR LSE...WITH TROUGH EXTENDING NWWD NEAR THE MS RIVER. A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE MSP AREA...EXTENDING SWWD TOWARD FSD. MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT CONTINUED TO LIFT NWD ACROSS WI...EXTENDING FROM NEAR MSP TO GRB AT 20Z. STRONG HEATING HAS BEEN OCCURRING ALL DAY ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...WITH TEMPERATURES OVER 100F INTO SWRN WI. AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS NEAR MSP INDICATE CAPPING BUT STRONG TCU DEVELOPMENT NE OF LSE SUGGEST CIN IS ERODING THERE. THE CORRIDOR FROM CNTRL WI SWWD ALIGNS WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AS WELL...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WARM AIR NEWD OVER THE WARM FRONT WITH PRESSURE FALLS NOTED OVER WI. TO THE W...THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO CONTINUE SEWD...WITH PRESSURE RISES. FORCING OVER THE REGION SHOULD INCREASE AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES SEWD. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS CNTRL WI. WLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-45 KT ALONG WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL VEERING WINDS MAY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS INITIALLY...BUT LIKELY TRANSITIONING QUICKLY INTO AN MCS WITH DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY. ONCE FORMED...THIS SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY PERSIST FOR SOME TIME INTO LOWER MI LATER THIS EVENING. ..JEWELL/HART.. 07/25/2012 ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 43368751 43888903 44209089 44409129 44729136 45109121 45639015 45548923 45288784 44928695 44608615 44288598 43798612 43528624 43408639 43348654 43318664 43368751 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS CNTRL WI. WLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-45 KT ALONG WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL VEERING WINDS MAY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS INITIALLY...BUT LIKELY TRANSITIONING QUICKLY INTO AN MCS WITH DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY. ONCE FORMED...THIS SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY PERSIST FOR SOME TIME INTO LOWER MI LATER THIS EVENING. ..JEWELL/HART.. 07/25/2012 ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX... I notice the absence of DTX in this statement. I'm thinking they're still befuddled by this brute of a cap. I'd so love some rain. Severe storms... not so much, unless they total my house out so I can build a new one! That rain up there better start huffing and puffing pretty quick like, unless they are expecting totally new areas of convection to pop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 ILN's AFD regarding tomorrow's severe threat is about the most ominous severe discussion I've seen come out of that office in a long time. We'll see however. Quite often the most advertised outbreaks are the biggest duds while the blockbuster events sneak up from behind and sucker punch us. For instance, the derecho event back on June 29th was one of the most damaging widespread severe events in Ohio's history and there was little if any mention of severe weather chances the morning of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 ILN's AFD regarding tomorrow's severe threat is about the most ominous severe discussion I've seen come out of that office in a long time. We'll see however. Quite often the most advertised outbreaks are the biggest duds while the blockbuster events sneak up from behind and sucker punch us. For instance, the derecho event back on June 29th was one of the most damaging widespread severe events in Ohio's history and there was little if any mention of severe weather chances the morning of. Or as I often say, 'the weather always does what it wants to do, which isn't always what we think it will do" and that especially applies to the areas around the Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Here's a link to the ILN discussion; http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=ILN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Thought I throw these out here just to get a gauge of tomorrow's severe weather risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I notice the absence of DTX in this statement. I'm thinking they're still befuddled by this brute of a cap. I'd so love some rain. Severe storms... not so much, unless they total my house out so I can build a new one! That rain up there better start huffing and puffing pretty quick like, unless they are expecting totally new areas of convection to pop. I think DTX was not included in that MD due to their location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Interesting feather-like feature on visible satellite. Appears to be an OFB from morning convection, and the NW part is getting pushed northward with the WF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Interesting feather-like feature on visible satellite. Appears to be an OFB from morning convection, and the NW part is getting pushed northward with the WF. The whisp from Lansing to Milwaukee? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 As someone who lost power for over 72 hours in record breaking heat following the June 29th derecho, I'm praying that ILN is off their rocker. I don't ever want to see something like that again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormDude81 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 HRRR model has an MCS starting in Wisconsin, dropping into Michigan, then Ohio,S Ontario,W PA Overnight, likely giving damaging winds, hail, an isolated tornado or two, storms will leave outflow boundaries for tomorrow afternoons outbreak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 The whisp from Lansing to Milwaukee? Yes, it appears rather high though...interesting indeed. Might be anvil blowoff that has consolidated some-almost has a confluent pattern with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Still no WATCH for WI or W MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Well, let's see here... it's 2330Z at the time of writing. The HRRR model has a large bow echo from Tawas to here in Flint and westward toward GRR by 0200Z. That gives 2.5 hours for something to pop up somewhere in WI and hightail it's butt all the way down here. I'm just NOT seeing this happen with what convection is currently on radar. I'm no meteorologist, nor do I play on on TV. But unless there is something I just don't see in all this, I'd say this stupid cap is being very stubborn to erode. The soil being dry as brick can't really help matters either. It's like it takes a dark orange echo on radar just to get sprinkles to the ground here. Everything just burns up on the way down. If the cap finally DOES crack though, I expect all hell to break loose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Well, let's see here... it's 2330Z at the time of writing. The HRRR model has a large bow echo from Tawas to here in Flint and westward toward GRR by 0200Z. That gives 2.5 hours for something to pop up somewhere in WI and hightail it's butt all the way down here. I'm just NOT seeing this happen with what convection is currently on radar. I'm no meteorologist, nor do I play on on TV. But unless there is something I just don't see in all this, I'd say this stupid cap is being very stubborn to erode. The soil being dry as brick can't really help matters either. It's like it takes a dark orange echo on radar just to get sprinkles to the ground here. Everything just burns up on the way down. If the cap finally DOES crack though, I expect all hell to break loose. I would tend to agree with the above. It doesn't look promising. What is interesting is the SPC went ahead and hatched the wind threat from E. Wisconsin to MI, BUT they did mention capping issues. If no MCS does form tonight, the front would get hung up, and the bigger severe threat would then be tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I would tend to agree with the above. It doesn't look promising. What is interesting is the SPC went ahead and hatched the wind threat from E. Wisconsin to MI, BUT they did mention capping issues. If no MCS does form tonight, the front would get hung up, and the bigger severe threat would then be tomorrow... If that happens, that hot, moist airmass behind the WF will just dam up, thus making it an even more unpleasant and sticky night while ramping up the instability, no? What would the effect if the nocturnal LLJ be at that point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Intense line of storms across western IA pushing east, should organize into an MCS as the outflow pools coagulate. I think this is the one we've been waiting for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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