Thundersnow12 Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Had to do a moving job at 8am, didn't think the MSP storms last night would do anything great, slept through the good part of the storm and missed an amazing shelf cloud from what I've seen so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 SPC expanded the SLGT risk considerably, added 30% probs from Central WI through central and southern MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted July 24, 2012 Author Share Posted July 24, 2012 SPC expanded the SLGT risk considerably, added 30% probs from Central WI through central and southern MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 I am somewhat impressed by the setup for severe weather the next two days. The SPC SREF significant tornado ingredients highlights the northern WI and MI area, as well as part of Ontario and NY State in the next two days. radar images showing the squall line in Northern Indiana and Dayton OH this morning: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormDude81 Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Tomorrow looks interesting from Great Lakes to Upper Ohio Valley, seems like supercell and tornado threat could last into the late night for OH/PA/MI/SW Ontario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Anyone else like the Sheboygan to Appleton to Wausau, WI area along the northward retreating WF tomorrow afternoon near the 21z timeframe? I see capping issues, however if something can go along the WF it could be nice with 35 kt swly flow at 850 mb overlapping the convergence zone over the boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Tomorrow looks interesting from Great Lakes to Upper Ohio Valley, seems like supercell and tornado threat could last into the late night for OH/PA/MI/SW Ontario Hows it looking for Toronto? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Hows it looking for Toronto? SREF has 20% significant tornado ingredients crossing Southern Ontario from 03z onwards into the morning. That's the extent of my knowledge but I guess some local storm folks are impressed about tomorrow night here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormDude81 Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Hows it looking for Toronto? I like most of Southern Ontario, OH,MI,PA, W NY, between 21z and 06z tomorrow evening into the overnight hours, there will be a cap in place, but it will likely break in areas mentioned above due to the dynamics and lifts with this upcoming system, i think there could be a decent tornado threat, and i wouldn't be surprised if we have 10% or 15% tornado (maybe hatched) i think in Ontario/Northern OH could have a threat of a strong tornado or two during the night time hours, and they could have a moderate out due to the time of night, tomorrow nights situation could be an overnight tornado event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 http://www.southernontariochasing.ca/day2convectiveoutlook.html My outlook for people in Southern Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 18z NAM looks pretty ominous around here tomorrow evening. I'm keeping my optimism at bay of course, given how fickle these types of convective setups can be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 June 6th, 2010 anyone? Reminds me a lot of that little overnight event we had with the EF2 and EF4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knitwx Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Starke county Indiana got blasted. 80 mph winds destroyed one hanger and damaged a couple more at the Starke coun ty airport in Knox. 8 airplanes were either damaged or destroyed.Huge trees are down at the county courthouse. I don't have a link but WSBTand WNDU have pictures of the damage. This was the 8 am Eastern time storm. I was on my way to knox from Plymouth and pulled off of U.S.30 at the Marshall/Starke county line to watch the storm. I always have my anemometor and I only recorded 30 mph winds. The rain was falling so hard it was a white out. The trees a couple miles west of me were bending really close to the ground. I wish I had had my camera. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormDude81 Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 June 6th, 2010 anyone? Reminds me a lot of that little overnight event we had with the EF2 and EF4 Yes this reminds me of it, where tornadoes occurred in the Upper Ohio Valley and Lower Lakes, tomorrow night could be very active for OH/MI/PA/W NY/Ontario, i am having a gut feeling tomorrow could be a moderate risk for these areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 I like most of Southern Ontario, OH,MI,PA, W NY, between 21z and 06z tomorrow evening into the overnight hours, there will be a cap in place, but it will likely break in areas mentioned above due to the dynamics and lifts with this upcoming system, i think there could be a decent tornado threat, and i wouldn't be surprised if we have 10% or 15% tornado (maybe hatched) i think in Ontario/Northern OH could have a threat of a strong tornado or two during the night time hours, and they could have a moderate out due to the time of night, tomorrow nights situation could be an overnight tornado event Thanks! I am starting to get very excited for this potential as it has been a very lackluster summer for severe wx around these parts so hopefully this produces! Also how is the hail threat looking like with these storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Starke county Indiana got blasted. 80 mph winds destroyed one hanger and damaged a couple more at the Starke coun ty airport in Knox. 8 airplanes were either damaged or destroyed.Huge trees are down at the county courthouse. I don't have a link but WSBTand WNDU have pictures of the damage. This was the 8 am Eastern time storm. I was on my way to knox from Plymouth and pulled off of U.S.30 at the Marshall/Starke county line to watch the storm. I always have my anemometor and I only recorded 30 mph winds. The rain was falling so hard it was a white out. The trees a couple miles west of me were bending really close to the ground. I wish I had had my camera. From Twitter, the county's tower also got hit: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Hey you all! For the second time in my life, I'm in Ann Arbor, MI. When can I expect these storms to impact the city or somewhere nearby? Will they still be individual supercells or have congealed into a line already as they move E/SE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Hey you all! For the second time in my life, I'm in Ann Arbor, MI. When can I expect these storms to impact the city or somewhere nearby? Will they still be individual supercells or have congealed into a line already as they move E/SE? It seems like DTX is playing the "we'll decide when it happens" card this time, so it's still anyone's guess. Thus far, all the various models and forecasts seem to agree on is "yup, there'll be some storms in SEMI Wed night, and some may go severe" and that's about as far as they're going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Thanks! I am starting to get very excited for this potential as it has been a very lackluster summer for severe wx around these parts so hopefully this produces! Also how is the hail threat looking like with these storms? The GTA looks good for tornadoes definitely. When you have a 20 in the STI category you've got a good shot. However the Significant Tornado Parameters paint a better picture IMO and with that at a 2 and 12 on the SCP for NW Ohio it looks pretty ominous. I'd say Southern MI, Northwest to North Central Ohio and all of lower Ontario have a good threat for severe weather tomorrow. Obviously the more north you go the less instability, but there will be more rotation aloft to offset that. Will be interesting to see if the CAPE can stay around 2000 j/kg during the overnight hours, especially with a robust South wind. I will say I'm actually quite concerned for tomorrow, especially after seeing a setup like this come to fruition once before. However the low pressure was closer to Lower MI/Northern Ohio in 2010 compared to now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Guys check out the hail signature over Oldham County KY on the Louisville composite radar. It's crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Guys check out the hail signature over Oldham County KY on the Louisville composite radar. It's crazy. Can you post a link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Can you post a link? I was on my phone, but I'm on my comp now and have screenshot the image: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Just NW of Wausau, WI from the newest RAP run at 12pm tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Been posting over at the NE boards on this, until I checked the NAM for tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 18z NAM looks pretty ominous around here tomorrow evening. I'm keeping my optimism at bay of course, given how fickle these types of convective setups can be. Thinking this might be more of a N Michigan event or north of 69 tomorrow night. It's Thursday that might get interesting if the overnight MCS lays down a few OFBs that the coming front interacts with thus spawning some interesting stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Thinking this might be more of a N Michigan event or north of 69 tomorrow night. It's Thursday that might get interesting if the overnight MCS lays down a few OFBs that the coming front interacts with thus spawning some interesting stuff. If it played out like that, it would be a miss for SEMI, all the stuff Thursday will end up South of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I honestly haven't been watching how good the 4km WRF has been doing the past few weeks with convection but has an interesting outcome tomorrow night along the front. This was the 12z run from today.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Thinking this might be more of a N Michigan event or north of 69 tomorrow night. It's Thursday that might get interesting if the overnight MCS lays down a few OFBs that the coming front interacts with thus spawning some interesting stuff. Keep in mind though that the instability/moisture gradient however will be well to even our SW until tomorrow evening. Usually in these types of setups, the storms always follow the instability/moisture gradients. So there's nothing stopping them from diving SE into our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Thinking this might be more of a N Michigan event or north of 69 tomorrow night. It's Thursday that might get interesting if the overnight MCS lays down a few OFBs that the coming front interacts with thus spawning some interesting stuff. I'd be happy with .75 of slow rainfall overnight and maybe a decent storm or two to watch. I used to love watching the severe stuff, but after a whie, I realy don't care to deal with the storm sewers backing up into my basement again via my sump pump. I've got to dig up that stupid gravity drain line and plug it off. The drain commission around here is quite literally useless and do not care in the least if your home floods anytime there's a quick inch of rainfall. Our entire block has problems with this and you can't even get someone from the DC office to return a phone call about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I don't know if this will be useful for tomorrow or not, but the three models that did the best for today over MN were the UKMET, ECMWF, and Gem Global, closely followed by the Nam, as far as short term High resolutions models I don't know, I left for work at Noon and got home at 10pm Central time. If anyone wants to see accumulated Precip for the UKMET go to the link below. The Ukie was really good 24-36 hours out. Hope you all get some rain. http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?mod=ukmet&map=na&run=00〈=en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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