cyclone77 Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Hmm. I honestly don't know what to think. So far most of the models (including the HRRR) are overdoing precip. Looks like storms will hold off until the LLJ kicks up later this evening and ignites some elevated convection. Best chances for that look to be up in Minnesota/far northern Iowa. Whatever develops there should organize and head quickly east/southeast and hopefully become a nice complex rooted in the boundary layer. Any organized cool pools in this environment should be more than capable of severe wind gusts. Northeast Iowa, southern Wisconsin, and the north of 88 corridor in Illinois would likely favor in that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormDude81 Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Looks like the cap is holding strong from the Upper Midwest to Ohio Valley/Great Lakes, in the 5% tornado area out in OH/PA/WV, nothing has formed, looks like a bust unless, if the low level jet kicks in, and kicks of storms during the evening, which is possible, keeping an eye of the storms forming in Ontario, and keeping an eye on the lake breeze from OH to NW PA/W NY, if anything fire and breaks through the cap, it will likely be supercells capable of large hail, and tornadoes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Been a very sunny evening for me, looks the same for PA. On another note I found a small area of obvious tornado damage in a wooded area near grandparents house. My grandfather noticed it first from an ultralight plane. There was about a 200 yard wide swath of woods that was completely flattened, with trees snapped in all directions. On either side of the swath, there were trees that didn't fall, but were bent inwards towards the path. The rest of the woods were undisturbed. Path was about a quarter mile long and ended where the woods ended at a golf course. But limbs from the woods were scattered across the course. We found one forked limb wedged horizontally into an ornamental tree, halfway up the trunk. This apparently happened during the July 1 storm. Was pretty cool and the first time iv'e seen tornado damage since September 20, 2000. Makes you wonder how many brief touchdowns have occurred that just aren't realized or recorded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormDude81 Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Appears to be a threat of MCS activity early morning into afternoon, some of the soundings in Ohio and Pennsylvania favor Derecho development, i think SPC is a bit too far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 I am really liking the prospects for Wednesday and Wednesday Night for the Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormDude81 Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 I am really liking the prospects for Wednesday and Wednesday Night for the Great Lakes. Me too, i am looking at the data, and it's supportive for supercells and tornadoes even into the overnight hours for MI,OH,IN,PA,Ontario area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Nasty little storm just came through. Very intense lightning/thunder. Nice rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Woke up just in time for the storm, heavy rain, tons of lightning, and very gusty winds now. Madison looks to be in a favorable spot for the storms upstream... the train is coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Yes, this looks like the HRRR was spot on at least according to what Cyclone described last night. Heading down to Elmhurst shortly. I think I''ll have no trouble beating it on my fifty minute drive but man is this thing hauling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 The worst part of the storm which missed Madison just to the south is causing some damage. Torrents of water are rushing down the streets, got a quick 0.2" on top of the meteorology building. 0845 UNK 8 E AVOCA SAUK WI 4319 9017 TREE BLOWN DOWN EAST OF AVOCA. ESTIMATED TIME.(MKX) 0905 UNK MINERAL POINT IOWA WI 4286 9018 TREES AND POWER LINES BLOWN DOWN IN THE CITY OF MINERAL POINT. (MKX) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Made it to work. Word from Woodstock so far is winds were howling and lots of thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Ripping inflow...p impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 We got blasted here in Elmhurst. We watched one plane sneak in to land on a northeast approach into O'Hare under the shelf cloud. It was n't long and then the winds and rain slammed hard. Front door here facing north ripped open and tore the door closer apart. Easy 60+, we'll see what the obs say. Best storm since last July's derecho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 ORD had a 58mph wind gust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Max wind gust of 58mph here as the line passed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Power flickered here but stayed on. Hearing about some scattered outages around the local area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 one of the glass turnstyle doors in our office blew out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 0.37" of rain as of 12z. Had a maximum gust of about 60 MPH at around 1110z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Looks like the high end local storm reports scattered throughout the region thus far are in the 65-70 mph range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Pretty good storm this morning. Picked up 0.62" of rain. Not much wind this far north - just enough to knock some dead sticks down. Looks like a lot more where that came from. Lol, WGN was showing some storm damage, so the first picture they showed was a port-a-potty knocked over by their helicopter pad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Getting ready to get pounded again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Looks like it will be a miss to the north here.. Pretty much par for the course here lately.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Finally had a real rain here... Woke up to lots of lightning and heavy rain... Still raining now...right around an inch so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Nasty little storm just came through. Very intense lightning/thunder. Nice rains. Lucky duck. Winds a little gusty here as the current complex misses well to my northeast (33mph gust at LAF). At least it knocked temps back 2 degrees and the dewpoint 5 degrees, from 9-10am. All is not lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Over an inch now...still raining. Its been a good soaking rain so far. Too bad the band is so narrow. 50 miles north or south and the totals are little to nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Currently tracking strong thunderstorms over the Ohio, especially near the Cincinnati, OH areas. Still looking at some strong indices across this area. LI's around -7, SFC CAPE 2,600 J/KG, 0-3KM CAPE 221 J/KG. Seeing potential for strong straight line winds up to 75mph. Pushed out a matrices for that area: http://smartwxmodel.net/update.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Getting some pretty intense horizontal rain and wind at my place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Getting some pretty intense horizontal rain and wind at my place. Yeah radar showing some heavy rains across your area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 looks the dry line makes into Ohio on Wedesday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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