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July 22-27 Severe Potential


hm8

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Hmm. I honestly don't know what to think. So far most of the models (including the HRRR) are overdoing precip. Looks like storms will hold off until the LLJ kicks up later this evening and ignites some elevated convection. Best chances for that look to be up in Minnesota/far northern Iowa. Whatever develops there should organize and head quickly east/southeast and hopefully become a nice complex rooted in the boundary layer. Any organized cool pools in this environment should be more than capable of severe wind gusts. Northeast Iowa, southern Wisconsin, and the north of 88 corridor in Illinois would likely favor in that scenario.

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Looks like the cap is holding strong from the Upper Midwest to Ohio Valley/Great Lakes, in the 5% tornado area out in OH/PA/WV, nothing has formed, looks like a bust unless, if the low level jet kicks in, and kicks of storms during the evening, which is possible, keeping an eye of the storms forming in Ontario, and keeping an eye on the lake breeze from OH to NW PA/W NY, if anything fire and breaks through the cap, it will likely be supercells capable of large hail, and tornadoes

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Been a very sunny evening for me, looks the same for PA.

On another note I found a small area of obvious tornado damage in a wooded area near grandparents house. My grandfather noticed it first from an ultralight plane. There was about a 200 yard wide swath of woods that was completely flattened, with trees snapped in all directions. On either side of the swath, there were trees that didn't fall, but were bent inwards towards the path. The rest of the woods were undisturbed. Path was about a quarter mile long and ended where the woods ended at a golf course. But limbs from the woods were scattered across the course. We found one forked limb wedged horizontally into an ornamental tree, halfway up the trunk. This apparently happened during the July 1 storm. Was pretty cool and the first time iv'e seen tornado damage since September 20, 2000. Makes you wonder how many brief touchdowns have occurred that just aren't realized or recorded.

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The worst part of the storm which missed Madison just to the south is causing some damage. Torrents of water are rushing down the streets, got a quick 0.2" on top of the meteorology building.

0845 UNK 8 E AVOCA SAUK WI 4319 9017 TREE BLOWN DOWN EAST OF AVOCA. ESTIMATED TIME.(MKX) 0905 UNK MINERAL POINT IOWA WI 4286 9018 TREES AND POWER LINES BLOWN DOWN IN THE CITY OF MINERAL POINT. (MKX)

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We got blasted here in Elmhurst. We watched one plane sneak in to land on a northeast approach into O'Hare under the shelf cloud. It was n't long and then the winds and rain slammed hard. Front door here facing north ripped open and tore the door closer apart.

Easy 60+, we'll see what the obs say. Best storm since last July's derecho.

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Pretty good storm this morning. Picked up 0.62" of rain. Not much wind this far north - just enough to knock some dead sticks down. Looks like a lot more where that came from.

Lol, WGN was showing some storm damage, so the first picture they showed was a port-a-potty knocked over by their helicopter pad!

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Nasty little storm just came through. Very intense lightning/thunder. Nice rains.

Lucky duck.

Winds a little gusty here as the current complex misses well to my northeast (33mph gust at LAF). At least it knocked temps back 2 degrees and the dewpoint 5 degrees, from 9-10am. All is not lost.

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Currently tracking strong thunderstorms over the Ohio, especially near the Cincinnati, OH areas. Still looking at some strong indices across this area. LI's around -7, SFC CAPE 2,600 J/KG, 0-3KM CAPE 221 J/KG. Seeing potential for strong straight line winds up to 75mph. Pushed out a matrices for that area: http://smartwxmodel.net/update.htm

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