stormtrackertf Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 This is going to be a long, painful morning wishing and hoping those storms to our north will stay organized and bring us some much needed rain in the I-94 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Those storms were no big deal around here this morning. Some thunder, lightning, and some wind with only 0.08" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 The moderate risk here in Ohio has shifted further south. Still a chance for severe storms here. However, the best chance for severe weather is now down around the Columbus, Cincinnati, and Zanesville areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lot&storyid=85794&source=0 LOT analysis of the Ohare downburst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 The overnight severe and convection was quite interesting from the standpoint of the numerous intersecting outflow boundaries, at least three of them at different times. The final outflow emanating from the storms as they plowed through S Wisconsin and N Illinois looked ominous until it fell apart just before the lake. Bow and I were a bit concerned about serious damage from our places through about Geos' location, given the outflow was starting to bow outward just east of Rockford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 1003 AM CDT THU JUL 26 2012 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0139 AM TSTM WND DMG OHARE AIRPORT 41.98N 87.90W 07/26/2012 COOK IL BROADCAST MEDIA HANGER WALL COLLAPSED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 TORNADO WARNING OHC007-155-PAC039-261745- /O.NEW.KCLE.TO.W.0008.120726T1721Z-120726T1745Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 121 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN ASHTABULA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OHIO... NORTHEASTERN TRUMBULL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OHIO... SOUTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA... * UNTIL 145 PM EDT * AT 118 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF KINSMAN...OR 16 MILES SOUTH OF JEFFERSON...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... MEADVILLE...KINSMAN...ANDOVER...HARTSTOWN...GENEVA...CONNEAUT LAKE AND COCHRANTON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 The overnight severe and convection was quite interesting from the standpoint of the numerous intersecting outflow boundaries, at least three of them at different times. The final outflow emanating from the storms as they plowed through S Wisconsin and N Illinois looked ominous until it fell apart just before the lake. Bow and I were a bit concerned about serious damage from our plaes through about Geos' location, given the outflow was starting to bow outward just east of Rockford. No damage to report here. Storm woke me up, but that was it. Cumulus building up nicely this afternoon. Hoping the NAM is right about convection today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 No damage to report here. Storm woke me up, but that was it. Cumulus building up nicely this afternoon. Hoping the NAM is right about convection today. It looks like East Central Wisconsin is in line for another round of perhaps borderline severe storms. It is backbuilding to the south and west a bit, so we'll see if it affects cities further south like Madison, Milwaukee and Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 micro cell just off shore from my place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 This is going to be a long, painful morning wishing and hoping those storms to our north will stay organized and bring us some much needed rain in the I-94 corridor. Did you ever get rain there? There were storms up here well into daylight hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Cells popping up to my west and skies are getting dark. Come on rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 136 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 130 PM CDT AN CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN POSITIONED JUST NW OF OSHKOSH AT 18Z CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD. ATTENDANT COOL FRONTAL/DRY BOUNDARY TRAILS IT TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN. RADAR MOSAIC CONTINUES TO SHOW A BAND OF SHRA/TSRA FROM NEAR GREEN BAY SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE DELLS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT NOW EXPANDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE CURRENT STORMS BACK ACROSS DUBUQUE AND ARCHING BACK TO CEDAR RAPIDS AND DES MOINES. A FEW CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH IN THIS AREA OF CU IN THE LAST HALF HOUR OR SO. RAP MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A CORRIDOR OF BETTER INSTABILITY EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI ACROSS EASTERN IOWA INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN WHERE THE CURRENT STORMS ARE WITH CAPE VALUES INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA. ABUNDANT MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA MUTING INSTABILITY BUT A MESOVORTEX CONTINUES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN CWA NOW. EXPECT THAT DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE CURRENT ACTIVITY IN WI WITH A FAIRLY SOLID BUT NARROW LINE QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS ARRIVAL IN THE NORTHWEST CWA WOULD BE DURING THE 19Z HOUR WITH ARRIVAL IN THE NORTHWEST CHICAGO METRO SOMETIME IN THE 21Z HOUR. A SEVERE THREAT DOES EXIST WITH WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND A CORRIDOR OF STRONG DCAPE VALUES SPREADING SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BUT A GOOD DEGREE OF CAPE FOCUSED ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL. IT APPEARS THAT THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY BE JUST A BIT GREATER THAN THE LARGE HAIL THREAT. OVERALL THREAT FOR STORMS TO REACH/EXCEED SEVERE LEVELS DOES APPEAR MARGINAL/ISOLATED BUT POSSIBLE...WHEREAS THE THREAT FOR NUMEROUS STRONG SUB-SEVERE STORMS IS MUCH GREATER. NEAR-TERM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA LOOKS UNLIKELY BEYOND SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY GIVEN THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND MINIMAL INSTABILITY WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT LOOKING TO OCCUR TO THE SOUTH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Nice discussion. Getting a decent amount of sun here with the CU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Just got a nice soaking with loud thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Man I really hope the HRRR is wrong, because it doesn't give most of Central Indiana any rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Saukville under a warning now. Those palms will be blowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Man I really hope the HRRR is wrong, because it doesn't give most of Central Indiana any rain.. I already called bust for Kokomo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Did you ever get rain there? There were storms up here well into daylight hours. Not really, MAYBE a tenth of an inch or so at the most. Just enough to wet the pavement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Getting darker here. Lightning alert went off on the weather radio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I already called bust for Kokomo. We just can't buy even a good rain shower.. Got some sprinkles but that was it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Not really, MAYBE a tenth of an inch or so at the most. Just enough to wet the pavement. That's a bummer. We got a little over an inch here. Maybe you'll get some more out of that storm to the north of Detroit... it's heading south, so keep your fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Line of storms moving through St. Joesph Co IN. Middle of the nline bowing, but not warned. I wouldn't be surprised to see an isolated wind damage report from south of SBN. It looks to just miss Indystorm to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 One last chance for something... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE EAST COAST...SOUTHEAST...AND SOUTH... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... MODESTLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY WITH COMPLEX TROUGHS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND OVER THE MIDWEST SEPARATED BY A BROAD SUMMERTIME RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES. IN THE EAST...THE FORECAST TODAY IS COMPLICATED AFTER SUBSTANTIAL AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AMIDST ENHANCED FLOW FIELDS AND ABUNDANT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING MIDWEST TROUGH YESTERDAY. THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH IS COMPRISED OF SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE VORTICITY CENTERS...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH IS CURRENTLY CROSSING WI/LAKE MI. OTHER DISTURBANCES...SOME CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/SUSTAINED...EXIST WITHIN THE BELT OF 25-50KT WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW FROM THE ARKLATEX TO OH VALLEY AND NORTHEAST. THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL SERVE TO FOCUS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO TRACK ESEWD FROM LAKE MI TO OH TODAY. MEANWHILE...CONVECTIVE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES AND SURFACE TROUGHING WILL PERSIST BENEATH THE MODEST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND AND SERN NY SWWD TO THE CAROLINAS AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH/TN VALLEY. MID LEVEL IMPULSES EMANATING FROM THE WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH WILL TRAVEL NEWD AND THEN EWD TO CREST THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE IMPULSES WILL COINCIDE WITH THE PEAK IN THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS AND ACT TO STRENGTHEN LEE TROUGH OVER MT TO WY LATER TODAY...AND PROMOTE WARM FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS TONIGHT. ...MIDWEST/OH VALLEY... HAVE INCREASED DAMAGING TSTM WIND PROBABILITY FOR PARTS OF THIS AREA WITH THIS UPDATE. ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE ALREADY FORMED AHEAD OF THE STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING SEWD FROM WI/LAKE MI EARLY TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THAT ABUNDANT SURFACE HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR AHEAD OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION FROM IND INTO OH. GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30-40KT...IN CONCERT WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND A WELL HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER...SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RELATIVELY FAST-MOVING ORGANIZED STORMS POSING A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR TWO LARGER BOWING CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS WHILE CROSSING THE OH RIVER LATER TODAY IN PARTS OF THIS AREA. POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR A WEAK SURFACE LOW/WAVE COINCIDENT WITH POCKETS OF LOCALLY STRONGER LOW LEVEL CAPE SUGGEST A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. ...ERN SEABOARD... WEAK HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD MAINTAIN BACKGROUND ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION AMIDST ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIRMASS WITH PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES. OVERTURNING YESTERDAY AND RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL PROBABLY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER DESTABILIZATION TODAY. HOWEVER...EVEN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF SUNSHINE WILL BOOST INSTABILITY SUFFICIENTLY FOR AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTIVE VIGOR. EXPECT STORMS TO BE MOST PREVALENT WITHIN LEE TROUGH AND AHEAD OF A LEADING LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EAST FROM THE OH VALLEY. SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM DELMARVA TO NYC MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR WEAK SURFACE LOW/WAVE DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY AS THE STRONGER IMPULSE NOW OVER WI/LAKE MI BEGINS TO ENHANCE LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE EAST. CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR VALUES WILL BE IN THE RANGE OF 30-40KT FROM NRN VA TO SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE HIGHER MAGNITUDES LIKELY NORTH AND OFFSET FROM THE GREATER POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. NONETHELESS...STORMS DEVELOPING IN THIS REGIME COULD ORGANIZE INTO SHORT LINE SEGMENTS WITH WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE. A SUPERCELL OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND LOCALLY STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND LOW LFC/HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER RH NEAR ANY WEAK SURFACE LOWS COULD SUPPORT A WEAK BRIEF TORNADO. ...INTERIOR NW/ROCKIES TO HIGH PLAINS... DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S WILL RESIDE IN THIS REGION BENEATH PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN 800-1200 MLCAPE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. IMPULSES CRESTING THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LIKELY PROMOTE STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WY...MT AND WRN SD. ACTIVITY WILL SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE NEWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. GIVEN SOMEWHAT LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...STORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED. HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE SHEAR EAST OF THE LEE TROUGH AND ALONG DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURE WITH SOME LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND EVOLVING FROM THIS CONVECTION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. ACTIVITY MAY THEN CONSOLIDATE INTO A SMALL MCS BUT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LACK OF STRONGER FORCING. ...SOUTHEAST/SOUTH... AREAS OF STRONG INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS WWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY TO THE SRN PLAINS. WHILE ALL OF THIS REGION WILL REMAIN REMOVED FROM THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDWEST/ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH...THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH...WHEN COMBINED WITH THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED STRONGER STORMS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WET MICROBURSTS. OUTFLOW AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS ACROSS ARKLATEX THIS MORNING MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR MORE CONCENTRATED/STRONGER STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF NERN TX LATER TODAY AS AIRMASS BECOMES STRONGLY UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AND WEAK SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ..CARBIN/LEITMAN.. 07/27/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Here is my photo set from the early morning July 26th Squall Line in Hamilton Ontario. http://www.flickr.com/photos/63669372@N05/sets/72157630777100346/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Some pretty good instability and moisture out there now. stratocumulus clouds has mixed out into a low SCT-BKN CU deck now. 0-3km CAPE is above 100 J/KG, so there should be some good wind with whatever storms develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Some pretty good instability and moisture out there now. stratocumulus clouds has mixed out into a low SCT-BKN CU deck now. 0-3km CAPE is above 100 J/KG, so there should be some good wind with whatever storms develop. There's a few cells popped up around Jackson, and a cell that was headed toward Flint seems to have decided to cruise southeast now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Some pretty good instability and moisture out there now. stratocumulus clouds has mixed out into a low SCT-BKN CU deck now. 0-3km CAPE is above 100 J/KG, so there should be some good wind with whatever storms develop. I'm up in Goodrich MI today (just SE of town). That monster cell is headed directly at me. Sky is black and the thunder can be heard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Decent CAPE, Delta-T's of 10C+ and LL lapse rates of 6C+... 1028 AM WATER SPOUT 12 E SOUTH MILWAUKEE 42.91N 87.63W 07/27/2012 LMZ673 WI TRAINED SPOTTER WELL DEFINED WATERSPOUT LASTED ABOUT 10 MINUTES. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON STRONGEST LOW LEVEL ROTATION ON TMKE TDWR. 30 KNOT OUTBOUND 18 KNOT INBOUND AT THAT TIME. WEAK CIRCULATION EVIDENT FROM ABOUT 1025 TO 1034 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Not really, MAYBE a tenth of an inch or so at the most. Just enough to wet the pavement. Interesting. Got some pretty heavy rain around 7AM-8AM yesterday morning, along with some loud cracks of thunder on my side of town. Visibilities were easily less than a mile. As far as severe weather, meh, got some pretty good wind with the outflow boundary around 2 AM, and I did get some thunder and lightning from a non-severe t'storm that popped up, then eventually non-stop lightning from other storms in the vicinity (though no thunder). It doesn't matter though, I'm still more than satisfied after July 4th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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