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End of July 2012 obs/discussion


Ian

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Im going with: good mlcape, bad low level lapse rates, weakening shear in lowest 150mb.

Overall: Meh.

Agree very much so, the lapse rates are lacking and thats whats hurting us. The storms in SC PA are not sustaining well, and parameters are sorta on the decrease once again. The shear is there but ot too much, I'm not impressed.

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LWX AFD holding fast

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

314 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...

-- Changed Discussion --

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --

SVR WX IN EFFECT UNTIL 0Z FOR ENTIRE CWA. SVRL AREAS OF FOCUSED CNVCTN IMPACTING RGN. LONG-LIVED AND SVR MCS DIVING THRU SRN WV AT 18Z LOOKS TO PASS MAINLY S/W OF CWA. SUPERCELL THAT IMPACTED POTOMAC HIGHLANDS HAS EVOLVED INTO SE-MOVING STORM CLUSTER THAT WILL AFFECT CNTRL SHEN VLY...FOOTHILLS...AND PORTIONS OF VA PIEDMONT. N OF CWA...SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS INCRG IN INTENSITY/CVRG ACRS SRN PA IN ASSOCIATION WITH SFC CDFNT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SAG SWD INTO CWA LATER THIS AFTN...LIKELY ORGANIZING FURTHER AS IT DOES. MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACRS CWA. MORE WILL BE KNOWN WHEN ONGOING 18Z KIAD SOUNDG IS COMPLETED...BUT CAPE VALUES ARE LIKELY IN 3-4KJ/KG. H8 INVRSN ACRS ERN ZONES HAS SUPPRESSED ACTIVITY...BUT AS SHRTWV TROF AXIS MOVES E THIS AFTN...TEMPS ALOFT WILL FALL AND INHIBITION SHUD BE OVERCOME. ASIDE FROM THIS...SUBSTANTIAL AND PERSISTENT CLOUDCOVER IS MAIN FACTOR IN LACK OF ACTIVITY ACRS MAJORITY OF CWA THRU ERY AFTN...AND CONTS TO BE SOURCE OF FCST UNCERTAINTY. WNW FLOW WILL ADVECT MORE UNSTABLE AIR FROM PA TDA...AND STRONG M/ULVL WINDS PRODUCING SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO SUPPORT SVR WIND GUSTS. LARGE HAIL PSBL WITH MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS...AND ISOLATED TORNADO CANT BE RULED OUT IN ANY RIGHT-MOVG SUPERCELL.

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