eurojosh Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 tempting to get the meh out Don't be sheepish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 1600 SPC meso 1.0-1.5 inch hail parameter in C/N VA. Craven Brooks SigSvr 40-70. 3km EHI is 2-3, 1km EHI 1-2. VGP is 0.2 to 0.4. Left movng supercell -4. Effective bulk shear around 35 kts. 0-6 km shear 30-35kts. 1km bulk shear 10 to 15kts. LI's -10 to -12. SBCAPE 3000 to 4000. MLCAPE 3000 to 4000 as well. LL Lapse Rates around 7.5 C/KM and ML Lapse Rates are 6.5 to 7.0 C/KM. Sig Tor effective and fixed layers around 1. Sup composite around 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 510 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 110 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA DELAWARE MARYLAND NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA MUCH OF VIRGINIA EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA COASTAL WATERS EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 110 PM UNTIL 800 PM EDT. HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 75 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. {snip} DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN VA AND SOUTHERN PA...SPREADING ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HOT/MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS WILL PROMOTE THE RISK OF SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Getting absolutely hammered in Pocahontas County, flooding everywhere, my drive home will be interesting to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 24, 2012 Author Share Posted July 24, 2012 watch goes pretty far north -- to state college area in pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Take 2 with the Tornado Warnings BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 108 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHERN ROCKINGHAM COUNTY IN WESTERN VIRGINIA... SOUTHWESTERN SHENANDOAH COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... CENTRAL HARDY COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 145 PM EDT * AT 107 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS 7 MILES NORTH OF MATHIAS...OR 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MOOREFIELD...AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... MATHIAS... MOUNT JACKSON... TIMBERVILLE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 24, 2012 Author Share Posted July 24, 2012 DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN VA AND SOUTHERN PA...SPREADING ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HOT/MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS WILL PROMOTE THE RISK OF SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 edit - I don't have yoda's quick trigger finger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 watch goes pretty far north -- to state college area in pa Matches up with where they drew the front in the MD earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 24, 2012 Author Share Posted July 24, 2012 Matches up with where they drew the front in the MD earlier. yeah tho that's a nws extension .. big box Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 There might be a TOR in Hardy County... looking at Storm Relative motion and Base Velocity from LWX radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamrivers Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 There might be a TOR in Hardy County... looking at Storm Relative motion from LWX radar agreed - looks awesome on radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 24, 2012 Author Share Posted July 24, 2012 There might be a TOR in Hardy County... looking at Storm Relative motion from LWX radar maybe but i doubt it. looks like rfd mainly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 It was sunny up here but it got windy and now it is cloudy/hazy. The wind has died down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 maybe but i doubt it. looks like rfd mainly. Could be, but just as you posted I edited my post to say that the base velocity picked up in the past few frames from LWX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Some storms starting to fire up north in PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Showers starting to pop up by State College and Altoona. Too bad their radar is down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamrivers Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 hardy/shenandoah storm looks great last scan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 1600 SPC meso 1.0-1.5 inch hail parameter in C/N VA. Craven Brooks SigSvr 40-70. 3km EHI is 2-3, 1km EHI 1-2. VGP is 0.2 to 0.4. Left movng supercell -4. Effective bulk shear around 35 kts. 0-6 km shear 30-35kts. 1km bulk shear 10 to 15kts. LI's -10 to -12. SBCAPE 3000 to 4000. MLCAPE 3000 to 4000 as well. LL Lapse Rates around 7.5 C/KM and ML Lapse Rates are 6.5 to 7.0 C/KM. Sig Tor effective and fixed layers around 1. Sup composite around 8 1700 SPC meso 1.5-2.0 inch hail parameter in C/N VA. Craven Brooks SigSvr 50-90. 3km EHI is 2-4, 1km EHI 1-3. VGP is 0.2 to 0.4. Left movng supercell -4. Effective bulk shear around 40 kts. 0-6 km shear 30-35kts. 1km bulk shear 15 to 20 kts. LI's -10 to -13. SBCAPE 3000 to 5000. MLCAPE 3000 to 4500 as well. LL Lapse Rates around 7.0 to 8.0 C/KM and ML Lapse Rates are 6.5 to 7.0 C/KM. Sig Tor effective and fixed layers around 1 (sig tor effective layer 2 in S MD). Sup composite around 8... but 12 in S MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamrivers Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 falling apart on VA Border now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Some warnings going out for the line coming through now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 falling apart on VA Border now Was just thinking that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Looking at the upper-lvl flow, seems like most of us in NOVA/C MD region will need to look toward W-central PA and adjacent points east for any action. Things may be beginning to pop in those areas about now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 24, 2012 Author Share Posted July 24, 2012 Was just thinking that... it looked ok when it was 1st warned and not that good after.. outflow undercut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1569 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1242 PM CDT TUE JUL 24 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MD INTO SERN VA AND NERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 510... VALID 241742Z - 241945Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 510 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM WITHIN THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL LIKELY. DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 90S F OVER VA AND SRN MD...WHILE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S F. VISIBLE IMAGERY RECENTLY INDICATES THAT STABLE WAVE CLOUDS WERE MIXING OUT...SUGGESTING THAT CAPPING IS BEING REMOVED. FURTHER HEATING IS LIKELY...WITH WILL ENHANCE SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. MOST MODEL SUGGEST A SEPARATE AREA OF DEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE PLACE IN THIS AREA BETWEEN 18-20Z. GIVEN VERY LARGE INSTABILITY AND AMPLE W TO NWLY FLOW ALOFT...EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT WOULD OCCUR WITH STORMS QUICKLY BECOMING SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...THEN MERGING INTO SEWD MOVING CLUSTERS PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND...WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT GUSTS POSSIBLE. IF TCU BEGIN TO FORM IN THESE AREAS AS PREDICTED BY SEVERAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...THE WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED TO INCLUDE THE REST OF SERN VA AND FAR NERN NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 "explosive development" - batten down the hatches lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Meh...just brief heavy rain when it came through, a gust to 13 mph and a few distant rumbles of thunder. Now lighter rain behind it...0.20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 24, 2012 Author Share Posted July 24, 2012 "explosive development" - batten down the hatches lol Watching storms erupt to the east will be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Watching storms erupt to the east will be fun. No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 92/71 at DCA 90/72 at IAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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