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End of July 2012 obs/discussion


Ian

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Hello!

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1155 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN MINERAL COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHEASTERN GRANT COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
* UNTIL 1230 PM EDT
* AT 1150 AM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS OVER CENTRAL GARRETT COUNTY...OR 9 MILES WEST OF
WESTERNPORT...AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KITZMILLER...
SULPHUR CITY...
EMORYVILLE...
MOUNT STORM...
MOUNT PISGAH...
ANTIOCH...
BISMARCK...

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Speaking of radar hallucinations, there is a sprinkle going up between Youngstown and Pittsburgh, right where and when the HRRR wanted to start our late afternoon storms.

OTHER CU OF INTEREST WERE ACROSS NERN OH NEAR THE COLD FRONT.

ADDITIONAL CELLS MAY FORM HERE AND TRACK SEWD WITH A HAIL AND WIND

THREAT.

You can't contain the HRRR!

(But evidently you can stop it since it hasn't run for 3 hrs)

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Joe Bastardi@BigJoeBastardi[/url]

By my count, this is the 10th "Derecho threat" since the Derecho. Sort of like missing a snowstorm, then trying to get it back with nxt 1

If that's not the pot calling the kettle black, I dont know what is.

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SPC makes me hot

DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS TO FORM WHICH COULD

TRACK FOR LONG DISTANCES ONCE DEVELOPED.

Tornado Warning in WV, explosive storm devlopment possible, maybe we could see a tornado watch for PA/WV/MD/VA

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I'm guessing that with that meso discussion wording that the 30% gets pulled farther north.

possible.. tho not sure we'd get widespread enough for that. front is still pretty far north though. these debris clouds are not necessarily helpful. might see torn risk bumped to 5% over WV.. not as sure about here, kinda marginal overall.

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possible.. tho not sure we'd get widespread enough for that. front is still pretty far north though. these debris clouds are not necessarily helpful. might see torn risk bumped to 5% over WV.. not as sure about here, kinda marginal overall.

Looks like we'll be getting an 18z balloon out of LWX to help us determine the cloud/earlier sprinkle impacts on the atmosphere.

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SPC update...

SB SATL IMAGERY SUGGESTS AIR MASS WAS COMPARATIVELY

MORE STABLE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE LEE TROUGH POSITION

FARTHER E THAN NORMAL...NAMELY FROM ERN MD TO ERN NC. EARLY MORNING

STORMS N OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE DID NOT PERSIST E OF THE MOUNTAINS

AND THIS HAS ADDED CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION

THIS AFTN/EVE. IT IS LIKELY THAT STORMS WILL INITIATE ALONG THE LEE

TROUGH WITH POSSIBLE ADJUNCT ACTIVITY OVER THE UPR OH VLY/ALLEGHENY

MOUNTAINS THEN MOVING ACROSS NRN VA/ERN MD TO ERN NC BY LATE THIS

AFTN/EVE. REGION WILL RESIDE WITHIN A 40-50 KT WNW H5 WIND MAX WITH

0-6KM SHEAR MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE OF INITIAL SUPERCELL STORMS.

ACTIVITY WILL ATTAIN A GROWING COLD POOL WITH CONGLOMERATING STORMS

LIKELY PRODUCING DMGG WINDS ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST OF MD/VA/NC THROUGH THIS EVE.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

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What does that mean?

It's just that you don't see it too often.. Usually with supercells you have a low level jet from the south with westerly winds atop. Here we have a westerly low level flow with NW winds atop. If you look at the hodograph it's similar to the classic supercell shape except its turned clockwise 90°. Thus when a right mover develops, instead of tracking E or slightly S of E, today their tracking S or just W of S.

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