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End of July 2012 obs/discussion


Ian

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Dave :axe: as in DT that is... throwing out derecho for tomorrow for W VA and VA on his FB page

it's possible... remember there are like 30 derechos a yr if we want to get technical. ;)

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wrf nmm gives us 2 rounds of storms in dc area.. 21z-0zish then 6z-9zish. arw likes the first round at least and looks better for tomorrow.. tho it's hard to say the best won't try to go south of dc area tomorrow.

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:lol:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA146 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012VAZ044-045-058-059-231845-CAMPBELL VA-CHARLOTTE VA-HALIFAX VA-PITTSYLVANIA VA-146 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012...HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT CAMPBELL...CHARLOTTE...HALIFAX ANDPITTSYLVANIA COUNTIES...AT 145 PM EDT...HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WERE LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTH OFHURT...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS HEAVY SNOWSHOWERS.THIS HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR MT AIRY AROUND 200 PM...STRAIGHTSTONE AROUND 205 PM...CODY AROUND 215 PM...LEDA AROUND 220PM...BROOKNEAL AROUND 230 PM AND NATHALIE AROUND 240 PM.

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d2 added us into slight further north

...MIDWEST/OH VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS...

GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT MID-LEVEL NWLYS AOA 30 KT WILL

OVERSPREAD THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS

FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS ON TUE. CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS MAY BE

ONGOING AT 12Z/TUE WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME ACROSS THE

MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS DOWNSTREAM...REMNANTS

OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY GROW UPSCALE DURING THE DAY...WHILE ADDITIONAL

STORMS FORM ALONG THE FRONT AND LEE TROUGH. NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS

SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REACH AROUND 100 F IN PARTS OF VA/NC. THIS

STRONG HEATING COMBINED WITH INCREASING 850-500 MB NWLYS IN THE

AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING MAY PROVE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW ORGANIZED

CLUSTERS PRODUCING PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND.

post-1615-0-07184400-1343066764_thumb.gi

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wrf nmm gives us 2 rounds of storms in dc area.. 21z-0zish then 6z-9zish. arw likes the first round at least and looks better for tomorrow.. tho it's hard to say the best won't try to go south of dc area tomorrow.

New HRRR gets the first round here a little later, more like 01z. I haven't gone back, but the last two runs are better the further north you are.

:lol:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA146 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012VAZ044-045-058-059-231845-CAMPBELL VA-CHARLOTTE VA-HALIFAX VA-PITTSYLVANIA VA-146 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012...HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT CAMPBELL...CHARLOTTE...HALIFAX ANDPITTSYLVANIA COUNTIES...AT 145 PM EDT...HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WERE LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTH OFHURT...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS HEAVY SNOWSHOWERS.THIS HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR MT AIRY AROUND 200 PM...STRAIGHTSTONE AROUND 205 PM...CODY AROUND 215 PM...LEDA AROUND 220PM...BROOKNEAL AROUND 230 PM AND NATHALIE AROUND 240 PM.

If only!

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Whoops.

NOUS61 KCTP 230248
FTMCCX
Message Date:  Jul 23 2012 02:48:27
KCCX WSR-88D HAS FAILED. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED. RESTORATION TIME UNKNOWN.
NOUS61 KCTP 231656
FTMCCX
Message Date:  Jul 23 2012 16:56:24
ONGOING ISSUES AT KCCX CONTINUE. TECHS ARE ON SITE ATTEMPTING TO RECITFY THE PRO
BLEM. THE RADAR MAY BE UP AND DOWN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

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Either the RAP is being hilarious, or those are some disturbing 6 hr progs in WV for 0100z... Ian/Ellinwood/MN/wxmeddler/WxUSAF... how good are the progs used on the SPC meso page?

it sure looks overdone.. it probably is.

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Agree... but its been doing that and getting larger with stuff out there... 3rd straight hour of increasing probs... probably is/means nothng as you say, just very intriguing to see

Looked at Earls screw T for nam and it has 70% supercell comp overnight around here. Hopefully something starts to form soon over that way.

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supercell comp of 36, sig tor effective layers of 10, that's likely some overdone numbers, but it's pretty rare to see these numbers, i honestly think there will be some supercells storms this evening in OH/WV/PA area, just take a look at the supercells up in NY already with weaker shear, and they are dropping hail to baseballs, This Evening and Overnight looks really interesting for OH/PA/WV/VA/MD areas

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Well IDK what to think of the update. 5% tornado remains but the wording for that area is less than interesting and 2% was expanded.

Personally i think, there are too many uncertainties, but i something fires up i could get interesting, well i am thinking storms will fire up, the SPC says additional storm areas are uncertain, but i am in Pittsburgh Metro, and it's sunny and clear out, and humid, If something forms i say E OH/ W PA, then it will form into a line and move into mountains then east/southeast into Virginia/Maryland overnight

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