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End of July 2012 obs/discussion


Ian

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For KT and Fozz, so they can drool over this later on.

Turned off my sprinklers, high and dry here

I logged off after my last post and laid in bed and watched it out my window. i fell asleep before it finished

yup... incubating a human being will do that, dave ;)

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It's been a good season (relative to the last two years) for storms in Stephens City, but last night we completely whiffed. Storms evaporated into thin air just on our doorstep and went north, south, and - eventually - east of us. We did manage to squeak out some annoying wind gusts that - again - blasted the mulch out of the flower beds and redistributed it throughout the lawn. Nice.

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Ok - on to today. Models are muddled, as is the atmosphere it seems. SPC:

...ERN SEABOARD...

WEAK HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD MAINTAIN BACKGROUND ASCENT ACROSS THE

REGION AMIDST ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIRMASS WITH PW VALUES AROUND 2

INCHES. OVERTURNING YESTERDAY AND RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL

PROBABLY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER DESTABILIZATION TODAY.

HOWEVER...EVEN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF SUNSHINE WILL BOOST INSTABILITY

SUFFICIENTLY FOR AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTIVE

VIGOR. EXPECT STORMS TO BE MOST PREVALENT WITHIN LEE TROUGH AND

AHEAD OF A LEADING LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING

EAST FROM THE OH VALLEY. SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM

DELMARVA TO NYC MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR WEAK SURFACE LOW/WAVE

DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY AS THE STRONGER IMPULSE NOW OVER

WI/LAKE MI BEGINS TO ENHANCE LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE EAST.

CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR VALUES WILL BE IN THE RANGE OF 30-40KT FROM NRN

VA TO SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE HIGHER MAGNITUDES LIKELY NORTH AND

OFFSET FROM THE GREATER POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. NONETHELESS...STORMS

DEVELOPING IN THIS REGIME COULD ORGANIZE INTO SHORT LINE SEGMENTS

WITH WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE. A SUPERCELL OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT

AND LOCALLY STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND LOW LFC/HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER

RH NEAR ANY WEAK SURFACE LOWS COULD SUPPORT A WEAK BRIEF TORNADO.

So, the best shear is displaced from the best instability. Shocker.

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...MID ATLANTIC/SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTN/EVE...

SEASONABLY STRONG...UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW NOW ACROSS REGION WILL

SOMEWHAT SUBSIDE TODAY...BUT REMAIN AMPLE FOR SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED

STORMS. AREA SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT VIS SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST

RELATIVELY MODEST MID LVL LAPSE RATES ACROSS REGION...IN ADDITION TO

A LOW LVL INVERSION.

NEVERTHELESS...SUBSTANTIAL LOW LVL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL

OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG LEE TROUGH

FROM NJ SW INTO CNTRL NC. THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY FOSTER EVENTUAL

DEVELOPMENT OF A LONG...BROKEN BAND OF STORMS ALONG THE TROUGH.

LOCALIZED STRONGER STORMS WITH THE BAND COULD YIELD DMGG WIND GIVEN

ENHANCED ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW AND HIGH PW /AROUND 2 INCHES/ PRESENT

ACROSS REGION.

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