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End of July 2012 obs/discussion


Ian

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Maybe, I'm remaining neutral

Latest returns has 2 mini lines building up in Frederick/Washington county line and Washington county along I 81 near HGR as well as the bigger one in Allegany county. You have a good shot of something. I would just like some rain here.

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Line is trying to unzip but seem to be in no hurry to turn svr. The stuff in S PA doesn't look svr really either tho.

just your average run of the mill summer storms. doesnt even look like a lot of rainfall either. Half an inch to some localized inch spots in S. PA storms

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seems that nasty looking bow up north turned out to be very boring per some in SNE

Talk in their thread yesterday especially exemplified 'potential' forecasting. Rotating supercells followed by 80 mph derecho. Oops.

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just your average run of the mill summer storms. doesnt even look like a lot of rainfall either. Half an inch to some localized inch spots in S. PA storms

Parts of PA should verify mod risk. Doubt the whole mod will. Of course the next question is does Joe public think a mod risk forecast is good if they get a tstorm of any sort.

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Parts of PA should verify mod risk. Doubt the whole mod will. Of course the next question is does Joe public think a mod risk forecast is good if they get a tstorm of any sort.

Probably yes. Because the word "moderate" is in there. They will assume it was pretty "moderate" :|

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Talk in their thread yesterday especially exemplified 'potential' forecasting. Rotating supercells followed by 80 mph derecho. Oops.

That was the forecast posters in this subforum were pointing towards for here in the June 1st outbreak as well. At least our area came much closer to meeting 'potential' with 12 tornadoes. But, as has been pointed out, that was a lot of gear-up for an event where the vast majority of us never saw any severe weather.

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I tried to score some phone pics. Pretty sweet looking tops on clouds when I was up in Gburg around 8. Lens on phone sux though. Keys and coins have done some serious damage so I'm not going to bother posting crap.

Looks like we can at least score a couple tenths of rain overnight. Chance for a decent light show even if it's miles away. We'll see how the line does once it clears the apps.

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There you go KT and Fuzzie

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

831 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

EASTERN FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND...

NORTHWESTERN HARFORD COUNTY IN NORTHERN MARYLAND...

SOUTHERN CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND...

NORTHWESTERN BALTIMORE COUNTY IN NORTHERN MARYLAND...

* UNTIL 915 PM EDT

* AT 828 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE DETECTED ALONG A LINE

EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF JARRETTSVILLE TO 10 MILES

SOUTHWEST OF WESTMINSTER...AND WERE MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. THIS

LINE OF STORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF

60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

GAMBER...

REISTERSTOWN...

JARRETTSVILLE...

COCKEYSVILLE...

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We'll see what happens when it comes off the mountains, bit earlier than I had originally imaged so who knows, maybe we'll get something.

Air is still pretty juicy out there, obviously. Lapse rates suck I guess but maybe we'll manage something.

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