Mrs.J Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Not to be demeaning to SPC... but I think this is a CYA STW for us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Not to be demeaning to SPC... but I think this is a CYA STW for us... Agreed. Not sure why they threw us a bone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 Not to be demeaning to SPC... but I think this is a CYA STW for us... I lean that way still though this is one of the harder storm forecasts I can remember given overall motions and proximity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Though MD 1614 for C WV... where I guess our severe weather is coming from... is interesting read Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Lack of shear suggests little to no potential for rotation/hail. However the MUCAPE is a Juicy Lucy Watoosy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 That gap in the line in northern KY needs to fill in or I'm afraid i'lll get straddled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 Hard time seeing s PA stuff producing 70+ winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 613 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH BY FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY AND REMAINS INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... -- Changed Discussion -- UPDATE - SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 528 NOW IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA THRU 1 AM. ALL OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER TIER COUNTIES OF THE CWA. TWO LARGE LINES OF SEVERE TSTMS ARE TRACKING FROM THE OHIO VLY TO SRN NEW ENGLAND. THE INITIAL LINE HAS NEARLY CLEARED THE STATE OF PA...AND SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTH WHILE SPEEDING OFF TO THE EAST. THE OTHER LINE HAS ABOUT CLEARED OHIO AND NOW MOVING INTO WV. THOUGH THE CNTRL APLCNS WILL LIKELY MODIFY THIS LINE AS IT CROSSES THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...THE LINE IN PA IS EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN TOWARD NRN MD. DC/BALT METRO AREAS - BE ON ALERT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS LATER THIS EVE/LATE NIGHT. OUTSIDE OF A FEW ISOLATED STORMS THAT COULD DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF ANY LINE OR OUTWARD-MOVING COLD POOL/GUST FRONT...IT WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST 2-3 HRS AT THE EARLIEST AND CLOSER TO THE 10-MIDNIGHT PERIOD FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE HIGH HEATING OF THE DAY AND DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE L70S WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY FOR ANY INCOMING CONVECTIVE LINE TO BE MAINTAINED...EVEN AS SOME OF LOCAL GUIDANCE DISSIPATES THE ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES OVER THE AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Good looking line, definitely will be considered a derecho, but still doesn't compare to last month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 PA warnings now down to the M/D line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 The storms that I guess that will come our way are packing quite a punch in SE OH and W WV... destructive winds in excess of 80 mph in warnings and reports of wind gusts to 75 mph at 2 stations/cities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Good looking line, definitely will be considered a derecho, but still doesn't compare to last month. The benchmark has been set-- Central Park, LaGuardia, and JFK all need to hit 66 mph or more (happened with our three airports here) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Guess we won't really know until it happens, really. Line is there, parameters are good, but models are consistent in weakening it. I'm 50/50 at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 The benchmark has been set-- Central Park, LaGuardia, and JFK all need to hit 66 mph or more (happened with our three airports here) They won't. MPO only gusted to 45kts., wind reports don't seem to be widespread upper end severe at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 I think I'll go down with the ship on this one if I have to. Still playing out about as planned. Knew we'd run into a period where it was dicey.. doubt we get svr in the metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 BTW- meant to ask this back in the derecho thread last month-- does anyone have data handy for top wind gusts at reporting stations? Like, where does the 71 mph gust at IAD rank all-time? Or, when was the last time DCA hit 70 mph? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 is this loop messed up for anyone else? http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/full_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 is this loop messed up for anyone else? http://radar.weather...s/full_loop.php Runs smooth for me. I noticed a lot the local doppler radars were jumping pretty bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 Runs smooth for me. I noticed a lot the local doppler radars were jumping pretty bad. It's like completely disappearing on my machine.. like it starts then all the echoes go blank and i see a white map GR feeds are super slow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 It's like completely disappearing on my machine.. like it starts then all the echoes go blank and i see a white map GR feeds are super slow GR feed problems here as well. Haven't had an update in at least a half hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Running GR Analyst with Allisonhouse and everything a-ok here with feeds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Report from outside: as of 10 minutes ago. It's still hot as hell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 NYC about to get lit up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 NYC about to get lit up. 65 kts incoming! 30-50 mph shut up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Outflow boundary moving rapidly SE from Mason-Dixon. Should kill off any chances of severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Southern PA line evaporating on cue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 Running GR Analyst with Allisonhouse and everything a-ok here with feeds. I use free feed probably bogged down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I use free feed probably bogged down - WaPo should get you Allisonhouse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Well at least we can see LWX issued one STW BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 713 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... ALLEGANY COUNTY IN WESTERN MARYLAND... MINERAL COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA... NORTHEASTERN GRANT COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 800 PM EDT * AT 711 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE DETECTED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF FROSTBURG TO 16 MILES WEST OF PIEDMONT...AND WERE MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... WESTERNPORT... LONACONING... FROSTBURG... PIEDMONT... LA VALE... KEYSER... RIDGELEY... CUMBERLAND... FORT ASHBY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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