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End of July 2012 obs/discussion


Ian

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The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of

District of Columbia

Delaware

Maryland

southern New Jersey

northern Virginia

West Virginia Panhandle

coastal waters

Effective this Thursday afternoon and Friday morning from 555 PM

until 100 am EDT.

Hail to 1.5 inches in diameter... thunderstorm wind gusts to 70

mph... and dangerous lightning are possible in these areas.

The Severe Thunderstorm Watch area is approximately along and 60

statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles northwest

of Staunton Virginia to 50 miles east southeast of Dover

Delaware. For a complete depiction of the watch see the

associated watch outline update (wous64 kwns wou8).

Remember... a Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are

favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch

area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for

threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements

and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally

do produce tornadoes.

Other watch information... continue... ww 524... ww 525... ww

526... ww 527...

Discussion... trailing portion of expansive qlcs ongoing from the

lower Hudson Valley into upper OH valley is expected to progress

sewd across watch area this evening. Ambient inflow air mass is hot

and moist with MLCAPE of 2000-3000+ j/kg. When coupled with a

unidirectional... wly wind field... setup will remain supportive of

forward propagation of qlcs with an attendant risk for damaging

winds and some hail.

Aviation... a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft

to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60

knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm

motion vector 30035.

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