wxmeddler Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 B...b...but I'll die! It's either that or Yoda's derecho later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Impressive DPs haven't mixed out, they're brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 DCA: 96/74 (S @ 10) IAD: 97/72 BWI: 94/75 me: 95.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 heat index 107 we'll probably top out at 99 with a HI of 115 just for a kick to the gut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 LWX did a SPEC 18z sounding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 LWX did a SPEC 18z sounding I heard KRNK did a special 18z sounding as well, but I've yet to see it anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 LWX did a SPEC 18z sounding Ugh. 850mb cap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Ugh. 850mb cap Will reach ConvT break the cap? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 4000 sfc cape at 2pm probably going to waste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 4000 sfc cape at 2pm probably going to waste. Let's bank it for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Wear black Dress like weatherwiz when he mows the lawn in the summer: Red Sox thermal underwear Red Sox wool socks long jeans Red Sox t-shirt Red Sox sweatshirt Red Sox jacket Red Sox wool cap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1606 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0208 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS VA...ERN WV...DC...MD...DE. CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 261908Z - 262115Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...TSTM POTENTIAL IS INCREASING OVER THIS AREA...AS AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE SE OF WW 524. BEING NEAR SRN PERIPHERY OF FAVORABLE MIDLEVEL WINDS AND DEEP SHEAR...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SUFFICIENT TSTM ORGANIZATION TO WARRANT WW...AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED ACCORDINGLY. DAMAGING GUSTS ARE PRIMARY CONCERN...AND MRGL SVR HAIL IS POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION...18Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED QUASISTATIONARY LEE TROUGH WITH WEAK CONFLUENCE NEAR FDK-LYH-MTV LINE. FARTHER E...BETTER-DEFINED CONFLUENCE BAND WAS EVIDENT BETWEEN RDU-RIC-DCA THEN NEWD OVER HARFORD COUNTY MD. AIR MASS BETWEEN THESE BOUNDARIES HAS HEATED QUITE STRONGLY...WITH SFC TEMPS MID-UPPER 90S AND DEW POINTS UPPER 60S TO 70S F CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE 3000-4500 J/KG. THIS IS DERIVED FROM MODIFIED 12Z AND 18Z RAOBS AND FCST SOUNDINGS...DISCOUNTING SITES WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH/80S F SFC DEW POINTS. 18Z IAD RAOB INDICATED WEAK CINH STILL REMAINING...AS WELL AS STABLE LAYER BETWEEN 500-650 MB...EACH OF WHICH MAY BE MITIGATING DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SO FAR. HOWEVER...CONTINUED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION SHOULD SUPPORT TSTM INITIATION/GROWTH DURING NEXT FEW HOURS INVOF EITHER BOUNDARY. VIS IMAGERY ACCORDINGLY DEPICTS PATCHES OF DEEPENING CU/TCU BETWEEN I-95 CORRIDOR AND BLUE RIDGE...ESPECIALLY NEAR RIC. VWP AND OBSERVED/FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 25-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES IN SUPPORT OF ORGANIZED MULTICELLULAR POTENTIAL. ..EDWARDS/HART.. 07/26/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 not the most exciting discussion ever but it sorta is in line with hrrr progs i suppose.. anything down here would be home grown i think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 not the most exciting discussion ever but it sorta is in line with hrrr progs i suppose.. anything down here would be home grown i think True... but its better than nothing... as you said above... would rather not have 4000 SBCAPE/MLCAPE go to waste Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 not the most exciting discussion ever but it sorta is in line with hrrr progs i suppose.. anything down here would be home grown i think Meh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Will reach ConvT break the cap? Its very close, but no. You would need 102 or there abouts to overcome the cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Its very close, but no. You would need 102 or there abouts to overcome the cap. So...no storms for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 lol 40% chance of that watch being issued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 lol 40% chance of that watch being issued STW's have been issued before in that probability Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 not the most exciting discussion ever but it sorta is in line with hrrr progs i suppose.. anything down here would be home grown i think DC storm autarky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 lol 40% chance of that watch being issued Who are they kidding? It includes the DC metro. There is a 90% chance of that watch being issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 STW's have been issued before in that probability I can still laugh at it, Yoda! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Who are they kidding? It includes the DC metro. There is a 90% chance of that watch being issued. AWT I can still laugh at it, Yoda! oh... are you ready to be blown away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Yoda, stfu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 So...no storms for us? Convective temperature is used when there is no mechanical lift, there's plenty of mechanical lift coming down from PA if it can make it down here.. plus, that's the cap strength in one place, it may be weaker or stronger in other areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Away from home but see my Davis Vantage Vue is registering an 81F dewpoint. It usually runs about 4 degrees higher than expected cause of backyard plants/grass but even saw KFDK has a 79F dewpoint. Sounds very gross back there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Yoda, stfu I you too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I heard KRNK did a special 18z sounding as well, but I've yet to see it anywhere. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 lol " At the moment, the city itself has about a 45% chance of experiencing winds stronger than hurricane force in the evening." http://blogs.wsj.com...this-way-comes/ Statements like that make me cringe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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