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End of July 2012 obs/discussion


Ian

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Slight risk posted for tomorrow.

...OH/TN VALLEYS TO THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC...

RELATIVELY NEBULOUS SURFACE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED IN THE WAKE OF

WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT ON D1. ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY FIELD

WILL LIKELY BE FRACTURED...A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST

BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET CENTERED

FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND. THIS BREEDS POTENTIAL FOR

ORGANIZED CLUSTERS GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF 25-45 KT WLYS AT 500 MB.

THE MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR TSTM INITIATION ON FRI AFTERNOON APPEARS

TO BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE MIDWEST/LOWER OH

VALLEY. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD BE GREATEST IN THE FRONTAL ZONE

WITH THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE CENTERED ACROSS LOWER MI AND AN UPSTREAM

IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE

DIFFERS SUBSTANTIALLY WITH THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IN THE REGION

WHICH MAY BE RELATED TO OVERTURNING ON D1. SUSPECT WITH STRONG

HEATING...NAM-RELATED GUIDANCE MAY PROVE CLOSER TO REALITY. WITH

STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE EFFECTIVE SHEAR...PRIMARY

THREATS SHOULD BE BOTH SEVERE WIND/HAIL.

FARTHER E...ANOTHER FOCUSED AREA OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE ALONG

THE LEE TROUGH IN PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN IN THE LOWER

MID-ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH HIGHER-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE POOR...STRONG

HEATING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR

SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED CLUSTERS PRODUCING PRIMARILY DAMAGING

WIND.

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Just got home from a work trip and catching up...Watch out for most of WV until 10PM

CRW AFD

...WITH 3000+ J/KG CAPE OBSERVED ACROSS REGION. ISOLD CONVECTION IS BEGINNING

TO FIRE UP IN CENTRAL IN AT 17Z...OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND

WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION AS THE DAY/EVENING PROGRESSES AND

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS.

COLD FRONT WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE TOWARDS THE CWA...AND WILL BE

SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF PERRY COUNTY AROUND 00Z....WITH 40+ KTS OF

0-6KM SHEAR...AND OVERALL UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW...WHICH WILL SUPPORT A

DAMAGING WIND THREAT PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES...

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probably has to do with IAD getting out of the high clouds sooner than DCA/BWI....

When DCA has a S wind and BWI took a long time getting rid of the clouds :)

Just goes to show where we would be at if the clouds hadn't stuck around this morning.. DCA would be at 100-101 by now.

Interesting jump on my PWS this morning when I broke the clouds at 11:45A... that's why I was saying earlier I wish I had a Solar Radiation monitor to compare to.

post-741-0-12213900-1343327150_thumb.gif

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