Midlo Snow Maker Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Now this is funny from dt's Facebook Justin ******* So glad you blew this forcast by a lot we didnt need this storm!!!!!!! 5 minutes ago · Like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...TOWSON... PARKVILLE... CARNEY... HOMELAND... WOODRING... WHITE MARSH... PERRY HALL... MORGAN STATE UNIVERSITY... ROSSVILLE... ROSEDALE... Have to LOL at that in retrospect, I live right in the bullseye of all those locations, and drove home at what was apparently the warned time, and can report no thunder, no lightning, and no rain. There were some clouds. That must have fallen apart at record pace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Wonderful this morning - dry and mild. It was about 68* when I took the dog for a walk, and the drive into work with the windows open was fantastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Wonderful this morning - dry and mild. It was about 68* when I took the dog for a walk, and the drive into work with the windows open was fantastic. Agree. Repeat this again tomorrow afternoon and report back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Woke to hear it is 66 out. That is a nice change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 64 for the low out here this morning. Very nice out. It was even gorgeous yesterday evening. Once the storm rolled through NW breezes kicked up and the humidiy dropped quickly. Spent the evening out on the patio enjoying the weather. Aside from that stretch from the end of June to the 2nd week of July, it's been a rather pleasant summer out here. Lots of storms and clouds to break the heat. Obviously, the cloudy and cool (relatively) Friday - Sunday period was incredible, but even the last two days were pretty nice. Even with forecasted highs in the 90s, each day we only hit 86. Yesterday it was a brief high as clouds moved in and quickly cooled it to the low 80s, then the storm dropped it to the mid 70s by about 4 PM. Technically, we hit 1 degree above average both days, but most of the days were spent with below normal temps. It has been rare to bust low wrt to temps the last couple of years, and we've been doing so with regularity lately. Hopefully, that trend can continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Just got my power bill Excellent morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Agree. Repeat this again tomorrow afternoon and report back. I'll drive home with my windows open just out of spite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 64 for the low out here this morning. Very nice out. It was even gorgeous yesterday evening. Once the storm rolled through NW breezes kicked up and the humidiy dropped quickly. Spent the evening out on the patio enjoying the weather. Aside from that stretch from the end of June to the 2nd week of July, it's been a rather pleasant summer out here. Lots of storms and clouds to break the heat. Obviously, the cloudy and cool (relatively) Friday - Sunday period was incredible, but even the last two days were pretty nice. Even with forecasted highs in the 90s, each day we only hit 86. Yesterday it was a brief high as clouds moved in and quickly cooled it to the low 80s, then the storm dropped it to the mid 70s by about 4 PM. Technically, we hit 1 degree above average both days, but most of the days were spent with below normal temps. It has been rare to bust low wrt to temps the last couple of years, and we've been doing so with regularity lately. Hopefully, that trend can continue. A very nice breeze kicked in about 8pm Tuesday evening and we, too, sat outside enjoying the refreshing feel in the air. Was a little surprised to see temp was "only down" to 70 at 5am -- expected it to be a little cooler. Had to leave for work, but I suspect we bottomed out at 68-69 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Thursday looks meh, Friday meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Thursday looks meh, Friday meh Our regions weather is always meh. We get something exciting once every few months, that's it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 25, 2012 Author Share Posted July 25, 2012 Our regions weather is always meh. We get something exciting once every few months, that's it we've had a good storm season for this area-- probably shouldnt think we're due for much more. tho the pattern over the u.s. has remained at least somewhat favorable for a while now so we'll see.. usually things start to shut down by aug unless it's tropical etc. tomorrow could be tough as we watch places to the north get slammed -- we'll need to at least consider some nighttime activity probably. friday is not a clear cut meh i don't think with the trough position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 25, 2012 Author Share Posted July 25, 2012 heck of a day 2 for the northeast DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2012 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM OH TO PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/MID-MS VALLEY NEWD TO SRN NEW ENGLAND... ...POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT/DERECHO ON THU AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST... ...SYNOPSIS... VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE SEWD AND REACH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY EARLY FRI...WITH A MODERATELY FAST ZONAL FLOW REGIME EXISTING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE NERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NEWD IN THE NORTHEAST AND SHOULD REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. A SERIES OF WEAK CYCLONES SHOULD BE PREVALENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL INTERSECT A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY TO THE SRN PLAINS. IN THE WEST...MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. ...MID-MS/OH VALLEYS TO THE NORTHEAST/SRN NEW ENGLAND... CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS...PARTICULARLY FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST. AN MCS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...SUPPORTED BY AN INITIAL MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX AND ROBUST LOW-LEVEL WAA ADVECTION. THIS SHOULD RETARD THE NERN ADVANCEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT EVOLUTION OF THIS ACTIVITY DOES BREED UNCERTAINTY OVER WHERE THE FRONT WILL ULTIMATELY ANCHOR. AN EXPANSIVE UNCAPPED WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY 90S/60S SURFACE TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO STRONG BUOYANCY THU AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-4000 J/KG. A LARGE SWATH OF 30-50 KT 700-500 MB WLYS WILL OVERLAP THIS INSTABILITY...AND WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMBINING WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...THIS SETUP WILL YIELD SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS FORMING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT UPSCALE GROWTH INTO SEVERAL CLUSTERS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. DAMAGING WINDS /POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT/ WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED TORNADO RISK SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE WHERE EFFECTIVE SRH AND STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ALTHOUGH PINPOINTING THIS CORRIDOR IS DIFFICULT GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF PRECEDING OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...IT APPEARS MOST PROBABLE FROM PARTS OF NY INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. SOME CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DISCRETE CONVECTION MAY FORM WITHIN A PERSISTING WAA REGIME THU AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I guess we shall see what comes tomorrow... 30% does run near FDK... 15% gets into DCA... me....h? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 The 15% line goes IMBY. Will watch for my derecho coming from KY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I guess we shall see what comes tomorrow... 30% does run near FDK... 15% gets into DCA... me....h? Am I the only one that thinks that MDT goes too far south. Part of me thinks definitely because models just dont support it, then theres the thought that mcs/derecho's usually go further south than modeled. Additionally, its kinda unusual to see a NEly moving Derecho, I know of one notable event near the GL but still, any thoughts. Ian? I don't think Tomorrow is a day for us other than isold cells around a potential derecho/mcs thanks to boundaries, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 25, 2012 Author Share Posted July 25, 2012 Am I the only one that thinks that MDT goes too far south. Part of me thinks definitely because models just dont support it, then theres the thought that mcs/derecho's usually go further south than modeled. Additionally, its kinda unusual to see a NEly moving Derecho, I know of one notable event near the GL but still, any thoughts. Ian? I don't think Tomorrow is a day for us other than isold cells around a potential derecho/mcs thanks to boundaries, etc. I think it's probably a little bit of a hedge on the southern end. But, the environment should be generally supportive if we can get anything to fire or if for some reason a complex tries to elongate south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I think it's probably a little bit of a hedge on the southern end. But, the environment should be generally supportive if we can get anything to fire or if for some reason a complex tries to elongate south. If we want to believe Earl Barker's Skew-T's... 12z NAM says our best time for anything good would be from about 15z to 21z.... then 0-6km shear falls way off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I think it's probably a little bit of a hedge on the southern end. But, the environment should be generally supportive if we can get anything to fire or if for some reason a complex tries to elongate south. If it does in a similar fashion to the way the derecho developed north into s pa on 6/29, then I certainly agree. Environment is good here, we'll see what the next few models have to say. Nowcasting on this one obviously will be needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Is DT calling for another world ending Derecho tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Yay Heat Advisory for tomorrow till 8pm. Just another summer day in the mid atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Yay Heat Advisory for tomorrow till 8pm. Just another summer day in the mid atlantic Don't hate, Appreciate! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Yay Heat Advisory for tomorrow till 8pm. Just another summer day in the mid atlantic Lame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Lame Just think of all the fun we'll have watching the derecho of doom destroy everything north of the Mason-Dixon tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Just think of all the fun we'll have watching the derecho of doom destroy everything north of the Mason-Dixon tomorrow Epic lameness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 25, 2012 Author Share Posted July 25, 2012 I would expect more multiple line segments tomorrow as opposed to a derecho but maybe I'm missing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I would expect more multiple line segments tomorrow as opposed to a derecho but maybe I'm missing something. SPC mentioned derecho in their disco headline... thats why Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I would expect more multiple line segments tomorrow as opposed to a derecho but maybe I'm missing something. Maybe a technical derecho in N PA/ S NY tomorrow morning, but i think lines of sups possible because the southern and sw part of the risk is not for a derecho, so I mean that is to keep in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 25, 2012 Author Share Posted July 25, 2012 SPC mentioned derecho in their disco headline... thats why Ahh I didn't even see that. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 send some derecho luck this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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