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End of July 2012 obs/discussion


Ian

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* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

TOWSON...

PARKVILLE...

CARNEY...

HOMELAND...

WOODRING...

WHITE MARSH...

PERRY HALL...

MORGAN STATE UNIVERSITY...

ROSSVILLE...

ROSEDALE...

Have to LOL at that in retrospect, I live right in the bullseye of all those locations, and drove home at what was apparently the warned time, and can report no thunder, no lightning, and no rain. There were some clouds. That must have fallen apart at record pace.

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64 for the low out here this morning. Very nice out. It was even gorgeous yesterday evening. Once the storm rolled through NW breezes kicked up and the humidiy dropped quickly. Spent the evening out on the patio enjoying the weather.

Aside from that stretch from the end of June to the 2nd week of July, it's been a rather pleasant summer out here. Lots of storms and clouds to break the heat. Obviously, the cloudy and cool (relatively) Friday - Sunday period was incredible, but even the last two days were pretty nice. Even with forecasted highs in the 90s, each day we only hit 86. Yesterday it was a brief high as clouds moved in and quickly cooled it to the low 80s, then the storm dropped it to the mid 70s by about 4 PM. Technically, we hit 1 degree above average both days, but most of the days were spent with below normal temps. It has been rare to bust low wrt to temps the last couple of years, and we've been doing so with regularity lately. Hopefully, that trend can continue.

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64 for the low out here this morning. Very nice out. It was even gorgeous yesterday evening. Once the storm rolled through NW breezes kicked up and the humidiy dropped quickly. Spent the evening out on the patio enjoying the weather.

Aside from that stretch from the end of June to the 2nd week of July, it's been a rather pleasant summer out here. Lots of storms and clouds to break the heat. Obviously, the cloudy and cool (relatively) Friday - Sunday period was incredible, but even the last two days were pretty nice. Even with forecasted highs in the 90s, each day we only hit 86. Yesterday it was a brief high as clouds moved in and quickly cooled it to the low 80s, then the storm dropped it to the mid 70s by about 4 PM. Technically, we hit 1 degree above average both days, but most of the days were spent with below normal temps. It has been rare to bust low wrt to temps the last couple of years, and we've been doing so with regularity lately. Hopefully, that trend can continue.

A very nice breeze kicked in about 8pm Tuesday evening and we, too, sat outside enjoying the refreshing feel in the air. Was a little surprised to see temp was "only down" to 70 at 5am -- expected it to be a little cooler. Had to leave for work, but I suspect we bottomed out at 68-69 or so.

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Our regions weather is always meh. We get something exciting once every few months, that's it

we've had a good storm season for this area-- probably shouldnt think we're due for much more. tho the pattern over the u.s. has remained at least somewhat favorable for a while now so we'll see.. usually things start to shut down by aug unless it's tropical etc.

tomorrow could be tough as we watch places to the north get slammed -- we'll need to at least consider some nighttime activity probably. friday is not a clear cut meh i don't think with the trough position.

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heck of a day 2 for the northeast

post-1615-0-64481400-1343237800_thumb.gi

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1230 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2012

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM OH TO PARTS OF THE

NORTHEAST...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER GREAT

LAKES/MID-MS VALLEY NEWD TO SRN NEW ENGLAND...

...POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT/DERECHO ON THU

AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE

SEWD AND REACH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY EARLY FRI...WITH A

MODERATELY FAST ZONAL FLOW REGIME EXISTING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE

NERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NEWD IN THE

NORTHEAST AND SHOULD REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE CNTRL GREAT

LAKES. A SERIES OF WEAK CYCLONES SHOULD BE PREVALENT ALONG THIS

BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL INTERSECT A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD

FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY TO THE SRN PLAINS. IN THE WEST...MID-LEVEL

RIDGING WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

...MID-MS/OH VALLEYS TO THE NORTHEAST/SRN NEW ENGLAND...

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO

NUMEROUS ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS...PARTICULARLY FROM THE MIDWEST TO

THE NORTHEAST. AN MCS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER

GREAT LAKES...SUPPORTED BY AN INITIAL MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX AND ROBUST

LOW-LEVEL WAA ADVECTION. THIS SHOULD RETARD THE NERN ADVANCEMENT OF

THE WARM FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT EVOLUTION OF THIS ACTIVITY DOES BREED

UNCERTAINTY OVER WHERE THE FRONT WILL ULTIMATELY ANCHOR.

AN EXPANSIVE UNCAPPED WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY 90S/60S SURFACE

TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO STRONG

BUOYANCY THU AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-4000 J/KG. A LARGE SWATH

OF 30-50 KT 700-500 MB WLYS WILL OVERLAP THIS INSTABILITY...AND WITH

WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMBINING WITH FRONTAL

CONVERGENCE...THIS SETUP WILL YIELD SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS

FORMING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND

PROFILES AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT UPSCALE

GROWTH INTO SEVERAL CLUSTERS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED

SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. DAMAGING WINDS /POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD AND

SIGNIFICANT/ WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED TORNADO RISK SHOULD DEVELOP

ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE WHERE EFFECTIVE SRH AND STRONGEST

DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ALTHOUGH PINPOINTING THIS

CORRIDOR IS DIFFICULT GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF PRECEDING OVERNIGHT

CONVECTION...IT APPEARS MOST PROBABLE FROM PARTS OF NY INTO SRN NEW

ENGLAND. SOME CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DISCRETE

CONVECTION MAY FORM WITHIN A PERSISTING WAA REGIME THU AFTERNOON.

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I guess we shall see what comes tomorrow... 30% does run near FDK... 15% gets into DCA... me....h?

Am I the only one that thinks that MDT goes too far south. Part of me thinks definitely because models just dont support it, then theres the thought that mcs/derecho's usually go further south than modeled. Additionally, its kinda unusual to see a NEly moving Derecho, I know of one notable event near the GL but still, any thoughts. Ian? I don't think Tomorrow is a day for us other than isold cells around a potential derecho/mcs thanks to boundaries, etc.

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Am I the only one that thinks that MDT goes too far south. Part of me thinks definitely because models just dont support it, then theres the thought that mcs/derecho's usually go further south than modeled. Additionally, its kinda unusual to see a NEly moving Derecho, I know of one notable event near the GL but still, any thoughts. Ian? I don't think Tomorrow is a day for us other than isold cells around a potential derecho/mcs thanks to boundaries, etc.

I think it's probably a little bit of a hedge on the southern end. But, the environment should be generally supportive if we can get anything to fire or if for some reason a complex tries to elongate south.

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I think it's probably a little bit of a hedge on the southern end. But, the environment should be generally supportive if we can get anything to fire or if for some reason a complex tries to elongate south.

If we want to believe Earl Barker's Skew-T's... 12z NAM says our best time for anything good would be from about 15z to 21z.... then 0-6km shear falls way off

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I think it's probably a little bit of a hedge on the southern end. But, the environment should be generally supportive if we can get anything to fire or if for some reason a complex tries to elongate south.

If it does in a similar fashion to the way the derecho developed north into s pa on 6/29, then I certainly agree. Environment is good here, we'll see what the next few models have to say. Nowcasting on this one obviously will be needed.

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I would expect more multiple line segments tomorrow as opposed to a derecho but maybe I'm missing something.

Maybe a technical derecho in N PA/ S NY tomorrow morning, but i think lines of sups possible because the southern and sw part of the risk is not for a derecho, so I mean that is to keep in mind.

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