NaoPos Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 HOw's the GGEM look to in regards of the PV orientation? EDIt.. i see it.. looks like the 12z GFS depiction.. further west and wound up more.. also, how's the 1-95 corridor from DC-bos looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 o I can't view them at work; sending from ipad - is any precip being pushed back into PA; lehigh valley? The GFS has its usual funky trowal/comma head depiction as always which seems too far west...no...not much is being shown that far west yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 GFS Ensemble mean lurched west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 GGEM gives DCA/BWI around 5mm or .20" qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 huge shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 GFS ensemble mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 The NOGAPS has now taken over for yesterday's GEM...basically in Morocco.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 GGEM has come back way west. Good changes today so far! Yes, and the changes at H5 are even better then the changes at the surface. The position of the PV and the trough axis as well as the partial phasing is much more favorable as show by the 12z runs so far, and leaves room for further westward adjustment in future runs. Still a long shot but a huge improvement over 0z and opens the door a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveB Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 GFS says what warmup? Bone-numbing cold with trof locked in the NE thru the entire period this run. A number of storm chances as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 The NOGAPS has now taken over for yesterday's GEM...basically in Morocco.... The Ukie agrees with the Nogaps http://weather.uwyo....EC=none&F1=p06i Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 12z gfs 84 and 96 classic BIG snow stracl for eastern VA and lower md eastern shore HUGE http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemble850mbTSLPUS096.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Here is the GFS ensembles total precip map. Needless to say this is a dramatic change from the previous sets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 The Ukie agrees with the Nogaps http://weather.uwyo....EC=none&F1=p06i We may start seeing that North American model/foreign model split start forming here...never really know how those will end up, generally they tend to favor the non-american models when they occur in Plains states I can tell you that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 The Ukie agrees with the Nogaps http://weather.uwyo....EC=none&F1=p06i That's a dead link. You sure you aren't looking at the 00z run from last night? I don't know if the 12z UK is available for free yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 imo the 12z NAM and 12z Ukie aren't that far off from the surface...haven't seen the upper levels yet though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 That's a dead link. You sure you aren't looking at the 00z run from last night? I don't know if the 12z UK is available for free yet. Yes, it's the new one. http://weather.uwyo.edu/models/fcst/ukmet.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralmass Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Can someone tell me if there are the places I want to be looking for the Euro? http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!MSLP!North%20America!0!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Albeit, it is not what it showed a couple days ago but I'll TAKE IT! May I also mention that the GFS shifts the snow swath 30 miles west with each run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Can someone tell me if there are the places I want to be looking for the Euro? http://www.ecmwf.int..._ensm_essential http://raleighwx.ame...s/ecmwfens.html Both of those are the ensemble links. To get the OP backtrack one page on Allan's site and look in the operational list. You can also get it Here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Yes, it's the new one. http://weather.uwyo....fcst/ukmet.html Ahh well that's only 72 hours..but yeah it appears that it isn't doing what the GEM/GFS/NAM are doing which is bring the PV further west and causing a partial phase with the southern stream. This run would keep the wave sheared, weak, and OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MACoastWx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 GFS says what warmup? Bone-numbing cold with trof locked in the NE thru the entire period this run. A number of storm chances as well. As far as storm chances H 228-240 looks interesting....something for the MA to keep an eye on....check out the date... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 The GFS ensembles being as far west as they are is the biggest red flag to me so far from the 12z data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Ensembles precip map looks nice.. When does the 12z euro come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 The GFS ensembles being as far west as they are is the biggest red flag to me so far from the 12z data. The Models have consistently placed snow over the Eastern Shore and Central Virginia. They are locked in for snow-- the shield may expand westward which is exactly what the 0z, 6z, and 12z have showed today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 The Models have consistently placed snow over the Eastern Shore and Central Virginia. They are locked in for snow-- the shield may expand westward which is exactly what the 0z, 6z, and 12z have showed today. not sure what your point is exactly but my meaning was that the GFS ensembles are usually extremely progressive. They are often the last holdouts showing a coastal when the final solution is a lakes cutter. It is fairly rare for them to be more amplified then the operational models. Seeing the ensemble mean that far west is a red flag that a more amplified solution might have some support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 not sure what your point is exactly but my meaning was that the GFS ensembles are usually extremely progressive. They are often the last holdouts showing a coastal when the final solution is a lakes cutter. It is fairly rare for them to be more amplified then the operational models. Seeing the ensemble mean that far west is a red flag that a more amplified solution might have some support. There's 3 ensemble members that track very far west...which is causing the mean to be so far to the northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 not sure what your point is exactly but my meaning was that the GFS ensembles are usually extremely progressive. They are often the last holdouts showing a coastal when the final solution is a lakes cutter. It is fairly rare for them to be more amplified then the operational models. Seeing the ensemble mean that far west is a red flag that a more amplified solution might have some support. Hmmmm First the 2nd event looks to hit eastern va and lwoer md eastern shore hard perhaps the most of any region secind YES the 12z gfs are west and more amplifed so things look much improved from being 100% out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 There's 3 ensemble members that track very far west...which is causing the mean to be so far to the northwest. Are the rest clustered OTS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 There's 3 ensemble members that track very far west...which is causing the mean to be so far to the northwest. Yup http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRS_12z/ensloop.html#picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Yup http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRS_12z/ensloop.html#picture I count 7 out of the 12 that are along the same track as the op or west of it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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