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12z Models

Nikolai

By Nikolai,
in Weather Forecasting and Discussion

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

GGEM has come back way west. Good changes today so far!

Yes, and the changes at H5 are even better then the changes at the surface. The position of the PV and the trough axis as well as the partial phasing is much more favorable as show by the 12z runs so far, and leaves room for further westward adjustment in future runs. Still a long shot but a huge improvement over 0z and opens the door a bit more.

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
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The Ukie agrees with the Nogaps :lol:http://weather.uwyo....EC=none&F1=p06i

We may start seeing that North American model/foreign model split start forming here...never really know how those will end up, generally they tend to favor the non-american models when they occur in Plains states I can tell you that much.

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Dino

Dino

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The GFS ensembles being as far west as they are is the biggest red flag to me so far from the 12z data.

The Models have consistently placed snow over the Eastern Shore and Central Virginia. They are locked in for snow-- the shield may expand westward which is exactly what the 0z, 6z, and 12z have showed today.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

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The Models have consistently placed snow over the Eastern Shore and Central Virginia. They are locked in for snow-- the shield may expand westward which is exactly what the 0z, 6z, and 12z have showed today.

not sure what your point is exactly but my meaning was that the GFS ensembles are usually extremely progressive. They are often the last holdouts showing a coastal when the final solution is a lakes cutter. It is fairly rare for them to be more amplified then the operational models. Seeing the ensemble mean that far west is a red flag that a more amplified solution might have some support.

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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

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not sure what your point is exactly but my meaning was that the GFS ensembles are usually extremely progressive. They are often the last holdouts showing a coastal when the final solution is a lakes cutter. It is fairly rare for them to be more amplified then the operational models. Seeing the ensemble mean that far west is a red flag that a more amplified solution might have some support.

There's 3 ensemble members that track very far west...which is causing the mean to be so far to the northwest.

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Guest someguy

Guest someguy

Posted
Posted

not sure what your point is exactly but my meaning was that the GFS ensembles are usually extremely progressive. They are often the last holdouts showing a coastal when the final solution is a lakes cutter. It is fairly rare for them to be more amplified then the operational models. Seeing the ensemble mean that far west is a red flag that a more amplified solution might have some support.

Hmmmm

First the 2nd event looks to hit eastern va and lwoer md eastern shore hard perhaps the most of any region

secind YES the 12z gfs are west and more amplifed so things look much improved from being 100% out to sea

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