12z Models

[Joe4alb]

The 500mb on the 12z looks very different than on the 6z! That may be enough to pull this thing NW and allow that ridge to build over the Atlantic.

[stormtracker]

72 hr GFS looks similarly flat as 0Z run

Pretty much. Might be time to put all of our eggs in the light event tomorrow. It looks slightly better than 6z, but about the same as 0z.

[blazess556]

It is farther west. the trough goes more negative

[LVblizzard]

It shifted west from 0z and 12z. Philly has about .10" QPF so far at 96.

[gravitywave]

GFS looks to miss east once again.

western ridge looks better this time @ 78, this will be a better result for the MA than 0z

[Nikolai]

Anyone putting faith into any particular solution is on crack. Although, the GFS apparently is, too...

The PV position shifts over 1000 miles from 6z.... instead of splitting, the PV basically just moves significantly westward. It's a good trend.

[gravitywave]

question: does anyone have any idea what that surface low is doing plowing east through Quebec Ontario and into Manitoba? is this solution at all realistic, with the two lows both rotating around the NE 500mb low??

EDIT: plowing WEST i meant to say

[LVblizzard]

Even though 500mb is significantly different, the surface soltuion isn't far off from yesterday's 12z. At 108 there's a sub-988 low near the benchmark.

[PhineasC]

Sort of between 00Z and 18Z from yesterday. It is better.

[Eskimo Joe]

There are some HUGE differences between the 06z GFS at hour 90 and the 12z GFS at hour 84 with regards to the upper air plots. I think this is coming west. EDIT: Sorry about the gif size, this was my first one.

[am19psu]

By the time the NAM gets to hour 60, it has had a few runs to incorporate all the players for a potential event, thus having a better handle on the situation.

You realize that runs of the NAM are independent of one another right with the exception of initial conditions? There is no autocorrelation function between the 6z T+84 NAM and the 12z T+78 NAM.

[stormtracker]

Meh..better, but not great for NYC south regions. SNE looks great though.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Any MET care to chime in on the changes in the PV on the 12z GFS? It's a huge change up in Canada from the 06z GFS run and am curious if the 00z Euro's depiction is similar.

[Nikolai]

This is vastly improved for those on the immediate coastline over 0z and the 6z.

You can say that again. I had thought the GFS would come west, but this is a significant shift, and puts NYC-BOS back into a SECS-y position.

This is where we want the storm right now--waffling between barely a miss and barely a hit. We will see how it ultimately ends up, but the vast majority of our significant events are still out to sea at this range on the GFS.

[PhineasC]

Meh..better, but not great for NYC south regions. SNE looks great though.

It actually did come back west quite a ways since 00Z. One more small bump west and we are back into good snows. As it is we still do OK.

[Eskimo Joe]

The 12z operational GFS has the polar vortex (PV) in one large chunk and about 1,000 miles west of the 06z operational GFS which was strung out in two main pieces. Coastal locations in the Mid Atlantic and SNE score a nice plowable snowfall from this run.

[Eskimo Joe]

You realize that runs of the NAM are independent of one another right with the exception of initial conditions? There is no autocorrelation function between the 6z T+84 NAM and the 12z T+78 NAM.

I did not realize that. Thank you for the correction!

[psuhoffman]

I disagree slightly, most storm on the GFS at this range are SOUTH not EAST... I would feel much more comfortable if this was showing a signficant snow for TN and western NC and then slide the storm east and out to sea south right now then I do with it being OTS. Getting a north trend is a lot more common then getting a west trend. Not impossible but more of a long shot IMHO.

Now on the more positive side, forgetting about the surface for a minute, the H5 differences on this run of the GFS are a huge improvement for the prospects of a more amplified and further west track. The location of the H5 players on this run leaves room for a further adjustment to the west. Its a big step.

You can say that again. I had thought the GFS would come west, but this is a significant shift, and puts NYC-BOS back into a SECS-y position.

This is where we want the storm right now--waffling between barely a miss and barely a hit. We will see how it ultimately ends up, but the vast majority of our significant events are still out to sea at this range on the GFS.

[SnowGoose69]

The first system's change in overall intensity and further northward track will have impacts as well to what happens.

[yoda]

The first system's change in overall intensity and further northward track will have impacts as well to what happens.

So do we want the first system to edge north more then?

[ravensrule]

The first system's change in overall intensity and further northward track will have impacts as well to what happens.

That is what i was asking before, so would we rather not have the first storm come further north?.

[yoda]

12z GGEM is out to 72 on the B&W. 1013 L just north of JAX... maybe extreme SE GA

http://www.weatherof...ast/478_100.gif

[Guest someguy]

with regard to saturday night sunday

s and e of RIC folks need to recall DEC 25 2004 SNOWSTORM for se VA 6-8" fell in willamsburg 12"+ in PHF and ORF and suffolk...

that might be what we see dec 19

[yoda]

84 GGEM 1007 low ~100 miles off NC/SC coast. PV is in Central Canada

http://www.weatherof...ast/233_100.gif

[stormtracker]

GGEM has come west..sort of looks like the 12z GFS thru 96 hours

[am19psu]

The next post about JB gets the user a 5 PPD setting. No more warnings.

[Guest someguy]

96 HR BURIES EASTERN VA

[PhineasC]

GGEM has come back way west. Good changes today so far!

[stormtracker]

96 HR BURIES EASTERN VA

Yeah, thats a pretty nice hit down that way. What about eastern NC?

[SnowGoose69]

The GGEM's depiction of precip over NJ/NYC/LI makes way more sense than the GFS.