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12z Models


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nam just go major juicy at 24

RIC is on a roll this winter so far. Hopefully everyone from Richmond to DC can cash in on this, and the trends are definitely good. I think it's important to wait and see whether the GFS agrees though, as the NAM (as we all know) tends to overdo precip.

Another consideration--these kinds of events always arrive earlier than scheduled (at least from my memories in DC) and consequently end earlier. Could be a very nasty Thursday evening commute...

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RIC is on a roll this winter so far. Hopefully everyone from Richmond to DC can cash in on this, and the trends are definitely good. I think it's important to wait and see whether the GFS agrees though, as the NAM (as we all know) tends to overdo precip.

Another consideration--these kinds of events always arrive earlier than scheduled (at least from my memories in DC) and consequently end earlier. Could be a very nasty Thursday evening commute...

RIC is on a roll... but looks like the NAM is squashing things south again, too far south for the DC folks...

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Yeah, RIC looks like bullseye on this one. NAM looks a bit wetter. Up here in DC, we're gonna be lucky to get an inch. NAM keeps see-sawing back and forth with the northern edge. Meh, I was hoping this would get a little better for us, considering the 2nd storm is likely to miss now.

I think we will see a bit more than that. True, its not what RIC will see... but I can see a broad 1-3" DC South

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I think we will see a bit more than that. True, its not what RIC will see... but I can see a broad 1-3" DC South

Agreed, these kind of events usually end up north of guidance even within a few hours.

Raleighwx snowfall map through 36--rough approximation, but significant changes it looks like.

12znamsnow_NE036.gif

Basically, QPF increased significantly this run, enough to offset the trend which was actually S from 6z--

12z:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_p36_036m.gif

6z:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/06/images/nam_p36_042m.gif

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When you look at the 12hr QPF, DC is clearly in the .1-.25 range. I don't have BUFKIT, but I would surmise that DC is around 0.15. 12:1 Snow Ratios would put DC around 2"

Agreed.

Judging 500mb at hr 36, the weekend storm is going to be much more impressive this run, FWIW. More digging of the SW & more ridging out ahead of it. *cross fingers*

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Agreed.

Judging 500mb at hr 36, the weekend storm is going to be much more impressive this run, FWIW. More digging of the SW & more ridging out ahead of it. *cross fingers*

I think that Canadian vortex is stronger this run

much worse than 0Z

I hope I'm wrong

we need spacing between the systems to keep hopes alive imho

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I think that Canadian vortex is stronger this run

much worse than 0Z

I hope I'm wrong

we need spacing between the systems to keep hopes alive imho

Agreed, flow around the PV is ripping. Block is taking a long time to move into Central Canada. Spacing doesn't appear 'better' this run to me, not sure if I would say 'worse' however based on only 42 hrs of progs.

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60 hrs looks better than 72 on 0Z

deeper trough in central US

maybe the spacing hope has legs

Yes, it's significantly slower than 6z as well, with more ridging ahead of the system. Also check out the trends at 700mb on the RH fields--something is actually happening over TX/OK while nothing was there 6z.

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Guest someguy

AFTER XMAS the while pattern over N america collapses

and it turns Mild to very warm depneding on location...from the Rockies east to the East coast

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60 hrs looks better than 72 on 0Z

deeper trough in central US

maybe the spacing hope has legs

EDIT: stronger SE ridge as well v. 0Z

Agreed on this one too. Not sure if its gonna help us though..I think heights on the along the east aren't any better. But 60 hour isn't as bad as I feared and it does seem slower so far

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AFTER   XMAS     the while pattern over  N america  collapses

  and it   turns Mild   to   very warm   depneding on location...from   the Rockies   east to    the  East coast

Long term change, Dave?  If so, it would be reminiscent of 1989-90.  If only for a few weeks (which seems like an eternity to snow weenies lol) it might be more like 1955-56 or 2005-06, which saw winter "come back" with major snowstorms in February or March.  I guess it all depends on the weakening of the La Nina. 

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66hrs has the vortex splitting/weakening a bit and further north vs. 0Z

trough progression slower than 0Z as well

I see both as positives

enough? we'll see

It's significantly further west than 6z, and importantly even further west than the 6z GFS (and at the surface, the depiction really isn't dissimilar to the 18z GFS, the last to show a hit). I think that the end of this run will look good for us based on the 66 hr, but what do I know... the trend is seemingly in our favor, and noone should forget models' tendency to bring everything N&W inside 4-5 days. We'll wait and see.

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