Nikolai Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Let's see what's in store for us today. NAM is out to 12--looks wetter and further N with the first system, possibly by a wide margin. I think PHL on N is out of the game for anything more than flurries, but DC may have to watch for these trends very carefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 nam just go major juicy at 24 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 DC looking better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 nam just go major juicy at 24 RIC is on a roll this winter so far. Hopefully everyone from Richmond to DC can cash in on this, and the trends are definitely good. I think it's important to wait and see whether the GFS agrees though, as the NAM (as we all know) tends to overdo precip. Another consideration--these kinds of events always arrive earlier than scheduled (at least from my memories in DC) and consequently end earlier. Could be a very nasty Thursday evening commute... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 RIC is on a roll this winter so far. Hopefully everyone from Richmond to DC can cash in on this, and the trends are definitely good. I think it's important to wait and see whether the GFS agrees though, as the NAM (as we all know) tends to overdo precip. Another consideration--these kinds of events always arrive earlier than scheduled (at least from my memories in DC) and consequently end earlier. Could be a very nasty Thursday evening commute... RIC is on a roll... but looks like the NAM is squashing things south again, too far south for the DC folks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 WOOF huge improvement from 6z, 3" in RIC already vs nothing last run by hr 30 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_pcp_030m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Yeah, RIC looks like bullseye on this one. NAM looks a bit wetter. Up here in DC, we're gonna be lucky to get an inch. NAM keeps see-sawing back and forth with the northern edge. Meh, I was hoping this would get a little better for us, considering the 2nd storm is likely to miss now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Yeah, RIC looks like bullseye on this one. NAM looks a bit wetter. Up here in DC, we're gonna be lucky to get an inch. NAM keeps see-sawing back and forth with the northern edge. Meh, I was hoping this would get a little better for us, considering the 2nd storm is likely to miss now. I think we will see a bit more than that. True, its not what RIC will see... but I can see a broad 1-3" DC South Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 I think we will see a bit more than that. True, its not what RIC will see... but I can see a broad 1-3" DC South Agreed, these kind of events usually end up north of guidance even within a few hours. Raleighwx snowfall map through 36--rough approximation, but significant changes it looks like. Basically, QPF increased significantly this run, enough to offset the trend which was actually S from 6z-- 12z: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_p36_036m.gif 6z: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/06/images/nam_p36_042m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Warning criteria for RIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Agreed, these kind of events usually end up north of guidance even within a few hours. When you look at the 12hr QPF, DC is clearly in the .1-.25 range. I don't have BUFKIT, but I would surmise that DC is around 0.15. 12:1 Snow Ratios would put DC around 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Agreed, these kind of events usually end up north of guidance even within a few hours. Raleighwx snowfall map through 36--rough approximation, but significant changes it looks like. jackpot here on that map could be a 6"-9" isolated per qpf and if decent ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 When you look at the 12hr QPF, DC is clearly in the .1-.25 range. I don't have BUFKIT, but I would surmise that DC is around 0.15. 12:1 Snow Ratios would put DC around 2" NAM Bufkit files don't come out till around 11 o'clock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 When you look at the 12hr QPF, DC is clearly in the .1-.25 range. I don't have BUFKIT, but I would surmise that DC is around 0.15. 12:1 Snow Ratios would put DC around 2" Agreed. Judging 500mb at hr 36, the weekend storm is going to be much more impressive this run, FWIW. More digging of the SW & more ridging out ahead of it. *cross fingers* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Agreed. Judging 500mb at hr 36, the weekend storm is going to be much more impressive this run, FWIW. More digging of the SW & more ridging out ahead of it. *cross fingers* I think that Canadian vortex is stronger this run much worse than 0Z I hope I'm wrong we need spacing between the systems to keep hopes alive imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I think that Canadian vortex is stronger this run much worse than 0Z I hope I'm wrong we need spacing between the systems to keep hopes alive imho I'm with you on that. That damn Vortex is killing us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I'm with you on that. That damn Vortex is killing us. look to the NE of the vortex the block the the N Atlantic is stronger too vs. 0Z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveB Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I think that Canadian vortex is stronger this run much worse than 0Z I hope I'm wrong we need spacing between the systems to keep hopes alive imho Agreed, flow around the PV is ripping. Block is taking a long time to move into Central Canada. Spacing doesn't appear 'better' this run to me, not sure if I would say 'worse' however based on only 42 hrs of progs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 60 hrs looks better than 72 on 0Z deeper trough in central US maybe the spacing hope has legs EDIT: stronger SE ridge as well v. 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 60 hrs looks better than 72 on 0Z deeper trough in central US maybe the spacing hope has legs Yes, it's significantly slower than 6z as well, with more ridging ahead of the system. Also check out the trends at 700mb on the RH fields--something is actually happening over TX/OK while nothing was there 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 AFTER XMAS the while pattern over N america collapses and it turns Mild to very warm depneding on location...from the Rockies east to the East coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 AFTER XMAS the while pattern over N america collapses and it turns Mild to very warm depneding on location...from the Rockies east to the East coast which is why we badly need the next 7 days to work out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 60 hrs looks better than 72 on 0Z deeper trough in central US maybe the spacing hope has legs EDIT: stronger SE ridge as well v. 0Z Agreed on this one too. Not sure if its gonna help us though..I think heights on the along the east aren't any better. But 60 hour isn't as bad as I feared and it does seem slower so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 AFTER XMAS the while pattern over N america collapses and it turns Mild to very warm depneding on location...from the Rockies east to the East coast Long term change, Dave? If so, it would be reminiscent of 1989-90. If only for a few weeks (which seems like an eternity to snow weenies lol) it might be more like 1955-56 or 2005-06, which saw winter "come back" with major snowstorms in February or March. I guess it all depends on the weakening of the La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 66hrs has the vortex splitting/weakening a bit and further north vs. 0Z trough progression slower than 0Z as well I see both as positives enough? we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 66hrs has the vortex splitting/weakening a bit and further north vs. 0Z trough progression slower than 0Z as well I see both as positives enough? we'll see It's significantly further west than 6z, and importantly even further west than the 6z GFS (and at the surface, the depiction really isn't dissimilar to the 18z GFS, the last to show a hit). I think that the end of this run will look good for us based on the 66 hr, but what do I know... the trend is seemingly in our favor, and noone should forget models' tendency to bring everything N&W inside 4-5 days. We'll wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Rather dramatic changes to the orientation of the PV on this run of the NAM compared to 06z.. and more importantly the trough axis is at least 100 miles further west at 78 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 last comparison to 0Z run 72 hrs trough definitely deeper, ridging along east coast better, a little west, vortex strung out and further north (probably weaker too) all good good enough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saloo Kaloo Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Looks like the PV is close to a phase at hour 78. 1012MB low is in the GOM now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 72hrs 12z run, the 552 height line is a hair north of BWI 0z run at 84 hrs it was through RIC(2nd look, just north of RIC) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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