Damage In Tolland Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 Monday and Tuesday both look good for some severe. Front slowed up on Tuesday. Hopefully there's some damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 I'm not so sure the models have actually slowed down with the cold front. It looks like the models have actually slowed down the secondary cold front...we really don't want that. It would be much better if we can slow down the main cold front b/c this will generate stronger lift and the best moisture will be ahead of the main front. Once the main front passes through we really start to dry out aloft and that leaves much less moisture/instability for the secondary fornt to work with, not to mention the secondary front will be much weaker and less steep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 SEVERE && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * HEAT AND HUMIDITY TUESDAY * COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY * HIGH PRESSURE/DRY WEATHER RETURNS MID WEEK OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES... 22/00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE ON SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN...AND MOST OF THE MODELS ARE STILL ON TRACK...WILL CONTINUE TO USE THE GFS/NAM BLEND FOR THE MID TERM AND GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR THE LONG TERM AS THE BASELINE FOR THIS FORECAST...WITH SOME PERSISTENCE MIXED IN AS WELL FOR CONSISTENCY. THE TREND WILL BE FOR A MERIDIONAL TROF/RIDGE PATTERN THROUGH MID WEEK TO TRANSITION TO A ZONAL FAST FLOW REGIME ALOFT WITH A STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE AT THE SFC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT IS THIS LATTER SCENARIO WHERE THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...PRIMARILY WITH THE MOVEMENT OF SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE FAST FLOW TO INTERACT WITH THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME IN LINE SUGGESTING THAT A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI...BUT THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRES IS STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. IN ANY CASE...THE BASELINE BLEND SUGGESTED EARLIER WOULD CONTINUE THE TREND TOWARD AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THIS CONTINUES TO BE BEST SOLN. DETAILS... MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT... DIGGING WAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF NRN NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRES. THE INITIAL PRE FRONTAL TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON MON BUT SHOULD BE E OF THE AREA BY MON NIGHT...SO ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING TO SUPPORT INSTABILITY AND THE LOSS OF A FORCING MECHANISM. SO WILL BE LOWERING POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO LIKELY SLIGHT CHANCE. TUE...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE WARM WAA AND INCREASING SFC DWPTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS WELL AS THE COOLING TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED THE WAVES...CONDITIONS LOOK PRIME FOR GOOD DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SBCAPE VALUES CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH AROUND 2000J/KG BY THE AFTERNOON WITH MID LVL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 TO NEAR 7.0C/KM. ALSO...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN BULK SHEAR AS BOTH UPPER LVL AND LLVL JETS BECOME STACKED. BULK SHEAR VALUES 30-40 KT AT BOTH THE 0-3 AND 0-6KM LVLS ARE POSSIBLE...SO THERE IS SUPPORT FOR MORE ORGANIZED AND THUS STRONGER CONVECTION. PWAT VALUES APPROACH THE 1.5 INCH MARK...SO ANY STORM COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND CAPE PROFILE SUPPORT ALMOST 1000J/KG IN THE -10 TO -30C LAYER...SUGGESTING HAIL COULD BE A THREAT AS WELL. FINALLY...BL MIXING SHOULD STILL BE ALLOWED TO MAXIMIZE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO AN INVERTED-V SOUNDING SUGGESTS GUSTY WINDS ALSO A THREAT. WHILE THERE ARE STILL A FEW THINGS THAT WILL NEED TO BE HAMMERED OUT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...GIVEN THE GUIDANCE/S CONSISTENCY WITH THIS THE LAST FEW DAYS...IT IS WORTH NOTING NOW. THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE ENDING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE STABILIZATION OF THE COLUMN AND THE COLD FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS LIKELY TO BE HOT AND HUMID TUE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. AFTER A WARM START OVERNIGHT...AREAS OVER THE SE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH NEAR 90 POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE SUNSHINE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAXIMIZE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 I just don't like how fast the 12z NAM is with the fropa. If anything the 12z NAM is a tad faster...not good. Really a shame b/c there are some pretty strong dynamics associated with the s/w with good height falls and decent directional shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 22, 2012 Author Share Posted July 22, 2012 FARTHER NORTHEAST...SPECIFIC DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...BUT SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY EXIST MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS MORE SO MONDAY EVENING/LATE NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NY/NEW ENGLAND. SUFFICIENT DIURNAL EROSION OF CINH/MODERATE DESTABILIZATION COULD ALLOW FOR SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND/OR OROGRAPHICALLY-AIDED AREAS. HOWEVER...IT MAY BE MORE LIKELY THAT STORMS DIURNALLY INTENSIFY/ORGANIZE OVER ONTARIO AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF NY/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY NIGHT. REGARDLESS...DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 Monday and Tues both look good for severe region wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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