free_man Posted July 20, 2012 Share Posted July 20, 2012 Looking beyond this current dry, mild wx stretch, hopefully a sprinkle or even rain shower upon the horizon. Landscape is torched brown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 20, 2012 Share Posted July 20, 2012 Monday/Tuesday look good..Friday looks deadly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 20, 2012 Share Posted July 20, 2012 SPC had the northeast/lakes in the D8 outlook yesterday and then took us out. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 monday evening could be alright for NY/PA and western NE. SREF showing decent probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 Lay off the insults and talk actual weather discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 21, 2012 Author Share Posted July 21, 2012 12z Euro looks okay Is this permitted :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 Blah, timing all off for early next week. Looks like the best threat for anything may be Monday night/early Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 Blah, timing all off for early next week. Looks like the best threat for anything may be Monday night/early Tuesday morning. Agreed. Our best shot is if the front can slow down enough to where it comes through late afternoon. Atmosphere really dries out though early Tuesday AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 Agreed. Our best shot is if the front can slow down enough to where it comes through late afternoon. Atmosphere really dries out though early Tuesday AM. Yeah slowing the whole thing down is key. 6 hours is all we need. At this point SNE can maybe salvage and early show for EWB, PVD, UUU, PYM on Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 that 12z euro system on Friday ejects out in two separate shortwaves which kinda kills the whole thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 synoptic rain sounds good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 Storms Monday afternoon look good. Then the front slows on Tuesday like always happens as we get closer and Tuesday is our severe day. That's how I see things playing out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 synoptic rain sounds good to me. I don't really see a good synoptic rain event, unfortunately. The Euro looks a little funny. Most models have a more typical fropa Saturday. This time of year it's tough to get a good synoptic rain event... a lot of times the models have trouble handling convection and wind up taking a MCS and developing it into a synoptic scale system. More times than not these don't come to pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 Storms Monday afternoon look good. Then the front slows on Tuesday like always happens as we get closer and Tuesday is our severe day. That's how I see things playing out Eh, I think we're sort of toast on Tuesday. Normally, yeah, the fronts tend to slow down a bit during the day as they approach the coastal plain. The difference in this case the front is being pushed along at a good clip by the 500 mb shortwave rotating around the big Quebec closed low. That means that it's going to be tough to slow anything down unless the whole s/w slows down. A bit atypical for July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 I don't really see a good synoptic rain event, unfortunately. The Euro looks a little funny. Most models have a more typical fropa Saturday. This time of year it's tough to get a good synoptic rain event... a lot of times the models have trouble handling convection and wind up taking a MCS and developing it into a synoptic scale system. More times than not these don't come to pass. Yea just wishing, yesterday was good though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 Eh, I think we're sort of toast on Tuesday. Normally, yeah, the fronts tend to slow down a bit during the day as they approach the coastal plain. The difference in this case the front is being pushed along at a good clip by the 500 mb shortwave rotating around the big Quebec closed low. That means that it's going to be tough to slow anything down unless the whole s/w slows down. A bit atypical for July. Didn't the front on Wednesday slow down? i remember it was progged a couple days in advance to be early and you and Scooter were kind of worried and then as we got closer it slowed. As long as that bermuda high is there,,it's got a good shot at slowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 Monday should see some pulsers with heavy rain and isolated wet microbursts..One of those days where many don't see anything, but those that do get hit hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 Yea just wishing, yesterday was good though. It was. A classic weak little wave producing enough warm advection to get things going. We'll see how later this week evolves... a lot of moving pieces. This time of year the boring synoptic setup usually wins but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 Yeah slowing the whole thing down is key. 6 hours is all we need. At this point SNE can maybe salvage and early show for EWB, PVD, UUU, PYM on Tuesday? 6 hours is easily doable at this range and I could see the front slowing down somewhat as we get closer. If we can get everything to slow down Tuesday has potential to be a fairly significant day. In order for this to happen though everything will have to go right. The early morning is going to have strong llvl winds in place but as that feature slides east the best shear here slides off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 Monday should see some pulsers with heavy rain and isolated wet microbursts..One of those days where many don't see anything, but those that do get hit hard Please be N ORH this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 Didn't the front on Wednesday slow down? i remember it was progged a couple days in advance to be early and you and Scooter were kind of worried and then as we got closer it slowed. As long as that bermuda high is there,,it's got a good shot at slowing The Wednesday thing was pretty much AWT. We knew it was going to be a close call and that north of the Pike would be in trouble... but pretty much things panned out as the models had showed. Timing was pretty good. The Bermuda high is quite meh actually. The pattern around here is being driven by the closed lows that keep springing up north of the border. The ridge is having trouble nosing in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 6 hours is easily doable at this range and I could see the front slowing down somewhat as we get closer. If we can get everything to slow down Tuesday has potential to be a fairly significant day. In order for this to happen though everything will have to go right. The early morning is going to have strong llvl winds in place but as that feature slides east the best shear here slides off the coast. Agreed. A 12z-15z fropa is not good. The whole system needs to back up and slow down. Unfortunately the models have been speeding up the fropa. 18z NAM has it around 12z with freshening northwesterlies. Would be a hot (but dry) day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 The Wednesday thing was pretty much AWT. We knew it was going to be a close call and that north of the Pike would be in trouble... but pretty much things panned out as the models had showed. Timing was pretty good. The Bermuda high is quite meh actually. The pattern around here is being driven by the closed lows that keep springing up north of the border. The ridge is having trouble nosing in here. But my point is as long as it's there..it always slows these things up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saber Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 Is the Monday/Tuesday deal wide spread across NE? I'm up in New Harbor Me for the week and one of those days I'll be working on a lobster boat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 Agreed. A 12z-15z fropa is not good. The whole system needs to back up and slow down. Unfortunately the models have been speeding up the fropa. 18z NAM has it around 12z with freshening northwesterlies. Would be a hot (but dry) day. I'm not really sure if the front will really slow down that much either. Doesn't look to be anything major that would allow for the s/w to slow down, unless perhaps the s/w trough digs a little deeper allowing for stronger ridging out ahead of it. Right now I would target eastern SNE as having the best potential unless things change/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 But my point is as long as it's there..it always slows these things up The flow is pretty fast and zonal. I wouldn't count on any downstream ridging to slow the s/w down.... mainly because there isn't any lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 I'm not really sure if the front will really slow down that much either. Doesn't look to be anything major that would allow for the s/w to slow down, unless perhaps the s/w trough digs a little deeper allowing for stronger ridging out ahead of it. Right now I would target eastern SNE as having the best potential unless things change/ If anything the s/w is speeding up... and there's no reason why it won't continue to speed up. I think Monday will be a more active day although I doubt anything severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 If anything the s/w is speeding up... and there's no reason why it won't continue to speed up. I think Monday will be a more active day although I doubt anything severe. Yeah I think Monday will feature lots of storms but with lack of shear it will be really difficult for storms to generate long sustaining updrafts. I agree with what Kevin said to where storms will be pulsers with some isolated microbursts. Flash flooding could actually be the biggest threat here given storms should be rather slow moving and if we end up with any boundaries we could see storms fire and train along this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 Models are making Monday look a little intriguing. Both the GFS and NAM bring in some steep mid level lapse rates (~7.5C/km) during the afternoon. Pretty impressive! Mid level flow is pretty meh though on both the GFS and NAM. That said, the 18z NAM keeps lower tropospheric winds strong (thanks to develop LLJ) enough that we have some pretty impressive 0-3km hodographs. Even with 500mb flow <30 knots the directional shear on the NAM results in deep layer shear around 30 knots. Something to keep our eyes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 Wow...that shear of 35 m/s is quite impressive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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