LithiaWx Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Another good day for Greenland in peak melt season. We lost 1 GT or so the last couple days. Melt percentage is below climo during peak melt. Awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 Passive Microwave showing GIS melt confined to the coastal regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 The storm over southern Greenland is now gone but melt is still pretty slow for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 2013 is falling behind. Conditions outside of small period have been about as perfect as you could ask for going back to mid April. This doesn't effect my prediction of a 500GT minimum summer melt loss. But should definitely prevent any further erosion of the base snow layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 There actually might be quite the big Greenland snowstorm coming over the next 4-8 days as the vortex drops right over Greenland. All model guidance is showing it starting about mid-week this coming week and going into next weekend. Snow levels should be pretty low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 Some -20F daily departures showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 Some -20F daily departures showing up. D1.jpg The pattern is almost the mirror opposite of recent years there. You sort of mentioned this in the arctic thread, but the placement of the anomalies has been totally reversed. Last year in June/July (and many recent years) saw huge ridging into Greenland and poking into the Arctic basin with lower heights over Scandanavia over to the Barents/KAra region. This June will go down with solid negative anomalies over the CAB and parts of Greenland with big positive anomalies over Scandanavia and Barents....the Greenland low heights will only intensify as we start July, though the central arctic will see a bit of a relaxation but still nothing crazy positive like recent years. The higher heights over Scandanavia/Barents will continue to be the dominant ridging feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 The pattern is almost the mirror opposite of recent years there. You sort of mentioned this in the arctic thread, but the placement of the anomalies has been totally reversed. Last year in June/July (and many recent years) saw huge ridging into Greenland and poking into the Arctic basin with lower heights over Scandanavia over to the Barents/KAra region. This June will go down with solid negative anomalies over the CAB and parts of Greenland with big positive anomalies over Scandanavia and Barents....the Greenland low heights will only intensify as we start July, though the central arctic will see a bit of a relaxation but still nothing crazy positive like recent years. The higher heights over Scandanavia/Barents will continue to be the dominant ridging feature. I agree. The opposite May pattern with the strong PV was a nice early hint that things would be different this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 Snow has already fallen over the Western side. Not very much but it still fell. I haven't seen Western Greenland that cool since a couple days in 2011. But with the upcoming forecast it's going to much more favorable than 2011 for possible covering back up the bare ice during July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 The waters are significantly cooler around Greenland compared to one year ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 Can someone be kind enough to direct me to this graph in real time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhillipS Posted June 30, 2013 Author Share Posted June 30, 2013 Can someone be kind enough to direct me to this graph in real time? image.jpg You may be able to get that plot from the Byrd Polar Research Center - but I've had luck in finding it at www.meltfactor.org. Here's the latest the have posted: That's for higher elevations, of course. Here's one for lower slopes: The lower elevations are more relevant to the melting being shown on the NSIDC site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 You may be able to get that plot from the Byrd Polar Research Center - but I've had luck in finding it at www.meltfactor.org. Here's the latest the have posted: That's for higher elevations, of course. Here's one for lower slopes: The lower elevations are more relevant to the melting being shown on the NSIDC site. There was strong melt early on along the Eastern and Northern side of GIS that helped keep 2013 and 2012 close. But there is no way 2013 is currently keeping up. 2012 did dump about 200GT a month for JJA last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Another slow melt day in Greenland yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 This is why I am 100 percent sure the melt won't be under 500GT and that is with the awesome weather GIS has received so far. I am glad this has been updated. The weather this year has been amazingly better than 2005, 2011, 2010, 2007, and obviously 2012. And yet GIS albedo is third lowest. It would take perfect I mean perfect weather the rest of the Summer to not have that happen. Obviously the folks who want to educate themselves on this can follow the link and use whatever tool's needed to see why GIS is facing some serious issues. If the weather was like some of those other years and obviously 2012 albedo would of dropped even further down past 2012 and if that same 2012 weather repeated barring a massive amount of new snow this process would positive feedback. Because the dirty ice isn't going away. Hopefully the dirty snow project can give us more answers to of this "dark soot" thing is going to flush out or not. Artificial albedo reduction on this level was not expected. GIS given the weather so far. Should not be where it is on the albedo chart below. http://www.meltfactor.org/blog/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 Dropping well below climo now in peak melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 Slow climoish melt continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 2012 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 Southern Greenland should get a decent snowstorm this week...it looks a bit south vs earlier model runs, but still pretty decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 I know I am wild guessing here but I am going to assume the big drop coming up is during the period where 2012 saw 97 percent of GIS see melt in one day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerryM Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 Every station reporting precipitation is showing it as rain - not unexpectedly with temperatures of 9C at Mittarfik or 8C at Nord. PII2012-A-1 is holding fast in Kane Basin & we probably won't know if it's still grounded until after the next spring tide on the 7th. Temperatures are 5C at Han Island and there are signs of ice movement further north in Robeson Channel but If the ice island remains and interferes with advection through Nares Strait the effect will be felt in the Lincoln Sea and as far west as the CAA. Terry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 Every station reporting precipitation is showing it as rain - not unexpectedly with temperatures of 9C at Mittarfik or 8C at Nord. PII2012-A-1 is holding fast in Kane Basin & we probably won't know if it's still grounded until after the next spring tide on the 7th. Temperatures are 5C at Han Island and there are signs of ice movement further north in Robeson Channel but If the ice island remains and interferes with advection through Nares Strait the effect will be felt in the Lincoln Sea and as far west as the CAA. Terry Probably all stations are at low elevations though, how far up is the precipitation falling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted July 4, 2013 Share Posted July 4, 2013 Amazing difference from last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 4, 2013 Share Posted July 4, 2013 Amazing difference from last year. Agreed. Goes to show you how large natural variation can be from year to year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 It looks like GIS ended up missing out on the potential snow event. To the SE. Good thing they don't have americanwx.com or they would be in epic meltdown mode. All 2 of the snow lovers on GIS . 2012 is not going to be able to sustain close distance with 2013 soon. Even though more wider scale melting will be picking back up. However at least for a little why that is progged to change. But a big -NAO is on the table attm.S 12z GFS starting tomorrow in 24 hour increments. Day 1/Day2/Day3 Day 4/Day 5/Day 6 So at least it's only part of the ice sheet. But this will probably vary quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 Cooler air looks to be pressing south by that last image...I think the GIS melt continues to be unimpressive during Summer 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 Cooler air looks to be pressing south by that last image...I think the GIS melt continues to be unimpressive during Summer 2013. At worst it will lose 500GT. Which would essentially tie it with 2007 as the 4th highest GIS land ice melt on on record back to 1958. It will probably end up closer to 550GT because there will be at least two week long warm spells or so to enhance the melt. I wouldn't call that unimpressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted July 7, 2013 Share Posted July 7, 2013 GIS is about to get a 2nd spike of larger melting. This is starting today going out every 24 hours on the GFS. This going to be warmer period with more melting and chances for higher elevation rain up to 2300M. with possibly snow above that. But this isn't the ideal set up many of the recent year's had. If GIS albedo wasn't lowered overtime. 2013 would end up with half of the ice mass loss it will have. DAY: 1/DAY: 2 DAY 3/ DAY 4: DAY:5/DAY:6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted July 7, 2013 Share Posted July 7, 2013 GIS ice sheet get's rare early July break from large ice loss. This was a couple days after SW/W Greenland had received a light snow fall event. Which coincided with a longer run of cool to cold July temps. Southern GIS narrowly missed a chance at another major snow event that ended up missing to the SE. A new website that is going to replace the DMI model used here so often can be accessed here: http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland-ice-shelf/nbsp/total-mass-change/ We can see the amount of ice mass loss per day has slightly dropped due to the abnormally cool conditions and albedo lowering snow fall. If you want a quick but good further education on this. Read this: http://polarportal.dk/fileadmin/Images/polarportal/pdf_docs/Colgan_and_Box_in_prep_v.1.3.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 I posted few pages back about NASA developing a robot to use on GIS. Here is a new article about the first testing of the robot on the actual ice sheet. http://www.nasa.gov/content/nasa-s-polar-robotic-ranger-passes-first-greenland-test/#.Udse9py0Qc0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.