Greenland 2012

[skierinvermont]

It is Western/South West Greenland.

 

 

http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r02c02.2013077.terra.1km

 

 

You can see the Baffin Bay Sea Ice edge.  You can definitely see the warmth and the quick toll it took on the edge of the Sea Ice.

 

 

This area will have snow cover until late April or May.  It's doubtful that it will remain in this state until then.

 

The blueish areas on the edge of the ice sheet where it's not white is where snow melted off.

 

No one is saying this was widespread.  Pretty much only a small region on the SW side.

 

And we know the warm temps in the 50s were overland as well.

 

Regardless the area just saw 20-30C temp anomaly's for a few days.  A ski resort shut down around Nuuk and they said it was unprecedented for them to have to shut down in March due to melting snow.

 

 

Do you have images from the same region from the same date in previous years or an image from early this year to compare the image above to?

 

Otherwise how do we know that this is not just what this region looks like normally?

 

 

Finally, the NSIDC has confirmed that the above average temperatures this winter were generally associated with heavy snowfall. Would you or would you not agree that this is good for GIS mass balance and that this winter may have been a fairly good winter for GIS mass balance? Of course, if this summer is as warm as last, it will not help much.

[TerryM]

I'd expect larger amounts of precipitation through the Arctic due to the increase in open water & warmer atmospheric temperatures. Snow acts as an insulator, protecting underlying sea ice from the very cold atmosphere during winter, then melts rapidly forming melt ponds which lower albedo during spring and summer.

 

On the GIS I believe they're finding sub surface areas that have retained a lot of summer heat buried under the winter's snow. The snow may have a very short lifespan when heated from beneath and from above once spring's insulation begins in earnest, and once the seasonal snow has gone we're back to the layers that showed very low albedo numbers last year.

 

Terry

[skierinvermont]

I'd expect larger amounts of precipitation through the Arctic due to the increase in open water & warmer atmospheric temperatures. Snow acts as an insulator, protecting underlying sea ice from the very cold atmosphere during winter, then melts rapidly forming melt ponds which lower albedo during spring and summer.

 

On the GIS I believe they're finding sub surface areas that have retained a lot of summer heat buried under the winter's snow. The snow may have a very short lifespan when heated from beneath and from above once spring's insulation begins in earnest, and once the seasonal snow has gone we're back to the layers that showed very low albedo numbers last year.

 

Terry

 

Ice below cannot heat and melt ice above it. This would violate the 2nd law of thermodynamics. The ice below could, however, have a reduced cooling effect on the melting ice above. I assume this is what you meant.

 

However, as I pointed out on the ice forum, a temperature anomaly of 5C is a miniscule amount of energy compared to the amount of energy required to melt ice. It takes 2.5cal to raise the temperature of a gram of ice 5C. It takes 80cal to melt the same quantity. Now, on the one hand, the volume of ice that is warmer than normal is much larger than the volume being melted. But on the other hand, it is unlikely that anywhere near 100% of this excess heat will be transferred directly into the phase  transition of the ice above it. Most of it will continue to be lost as LW radiation to the atmosphere (which is how we know it is there in the first place).

 

The fact that the ice is frozen is really all that matters. Additionally, the system will continue to move into thermodynamic equilibrium with the atmosphere until melt season actually begins. In other words, the subsurface ice should continue to cool towards more normal values before the start of melt season. Only energy that dissipates on actual melt days will contribute to phase transition. 

[TerryM]

Ice below cannot heat and melt ice above it. This would violate the 2nd law of thermodynamics. The ice below could, however, have a reduced cooling effect on the melting ice above. I assume this is what you meant.

 

Warm ice can't melt ice (assuming the ice has the same constituents) , but it certainly can heat it. Heat always flowing to cold is the most simplified version of the 2nd law.

 

Ice doesn't conduct heat particularly well, so it's probably a race to see if the upper ice melts down to the liquid layer before the liquid layer dissipates enough energy to complete it's phase shift. As you pointed out, a lot of energy is required during these transitions. The dissipated energy will bring ice in close proximity ever nearer to it's phase change & the poor conductivity of ice means that very little is going to be radiated away.

 

Terry

[skierinvermont]

Ice below cannot heat and melt ice above it. This would violate the 2nd law of thermodynamics. The ice below could, however, have a reduced cooling effect on the melting ice above. I assume this is what you meant.

 

Warm ice can't melt ice (assuming the ice has the same constituents) , but it certainly can heat it. Heat always flowing to cold is the most simplified version of the 2nd law.

 

Ice doesn't conduct heat particularly well, so it's probably a race to see if the upper ice melts down to the liquid layer before the liquid layer dissipates enough energy to complete it's phase shift. As you pointed out, a lot of energy is required during these transitions. The dissipated energy will bring ice in close proximity ever nearer to it's phase change & the poor conductivity of ice means that very little is going to be radiated away.

 

Terry

 

 

There isn't a liquid layer. The last ice froze in mid-December. It's MARCH IN GREENLAND. 

 

Just because ice has poor conductivity doesn't mean it doesn't radiate well...

 

The point is there really is an inconsequential amount anomalous heat in the ice, if any at all even remains by May. 

[The_Global_Warmer]

http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r02c02.2013086.terra.500m

[The_Global_Warmer]

Melt water now showing up on the SW coast of greenland

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

Relentless warmth progged to return to Western/SW Greenland.

 

 

 

It's actually warm there now:

 

 

 

More than melt now.

 

This is leaving the ice bare for mid to late April.

 

 

[Jonger]

Melt water now showing up on the SW coast of greenland

 

 

Are you saying the water is running out of the continent or that the water inside the inlets are melting?

[nzucker]

-25F in Greenland. Torch...break out the frisbees. 

 

-NAO has dominated so of course it's going to be warm in Greenland, but that's going to help sea ice and snow cover in much of Canada during April, where a large pool of cold air should dominate. I think we'll see a very slow retreat of the snow cover line compared to recent years due to this blocking pattern. 

[The_Global_Warmer]

Are you saying the water is running out of the continent or that the water inside the inlets are melting?

 

 

It's fresh water.  I am not sure. It's abnormal.

 

I've looked at modis back to 2002 and nothing was this bad on this early.

[The_Global_Warmer]

-25F in Greenland. Torch...break out the frisbees. 

 

-NAO has dominated so of course it's going to be warm in Greenland, but that's going to help sea ice and snow cover in much of Canada during April, where a large pool of cold air should dominate. I think we'll see a very slow retreat of the snow cover line compared to recent years due to this blocking pattern. 

 

You can be sarcastic about it.  But Greenland has been getting destroyed since 2005 and it continues to get worse.  Most of the melt is on the Western and Southwestern coasts.

 

 

 

Greenland has been super torching the last 2 weeks and torching for 5 weeks at least. 

 

 

 

 

Once again a major heatwave is coming.

 

 

 

snow cover might do better in April but I bet May is top 5 worst on record.

[Jonger]

-25F in Greenland. Torch...break out the frisbees. 

 

-NAO has dominated so of course it's going to be warm in Greenland, but that's going to help sea ice and snow cover in much of Canada during April, where a large pool of cold air should dominate. I think we'll see a very slow retreat of the snow cover line compared to recent years due to this blocking pattern. 

 

You can be sarcastic about it.  But Greenland has been getting destroyed since 2005 and it continues to get worse.  Most of the melt is on the Western and Southwestern coasts.

 

 

 

Greenland has been super torching the last 2 weeks and torching for 5 weeks at least. 

 

 

 

 

Once again a major heatwave is coming.

 

 

 

snow cover might do better in April but I bet May is top 5 worst on record.

That block really pinwheels that heat north... Heat as in coastal 40's.

[PhillipS]

Are you saying the water is running out of the continent or that the water inside the inlets are melting?

 

One way to spot meltwater coming out from under glaciers and ice sheets is its milky appearance due to suspended rock flour, i.e. pulverized rock dust.

[The_Global_Warmer]

The heat is back again in full force.  18Z temps have held in the upper 40s to some reports of mid 50s.  This is obviously very extreme.

 

 

 

Here we see the Greenish colors showing us where bare land is that has lost some, most, or all snow cover. 

 

But the bigger issue is the clear lack of snow over the ice pack.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We can see the block which is breaking down and should allow sub freezing air to slow up or halt the early edge melting taking place.

 

 

 

No Surprise local SST's are running very very warm.

 

 

[Snow_Miser]

Sorry if this has been posted or not, but the NSIDC now has a Greenland Melt Tracker. Thought it would be of use for those following the summer melt this year.

 

http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/

 

[Snow_Miser]

Greenland should do well over the next couple weeks or so.

 

[nzucker]

-25F in Greenland. Torch...break out the frisbees. 

 

-NAO has dominated so of course it's going to be warm in Greenland, but that's going to help sea ice and snow cover in much of Canada during April, where a large pool of cold air should dominate. I think we'll see a very slow retreat of the snow cover line compared to recent years due to this blocking pattern. 

Bump.

 

Snow cover in April may be among the highest on record. 

[Jonger]

Greenland should do well over the next couple weeks or so.

 

That's quite a trough in the pacific.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Bump.

Snow cover in April may be among the highest on record.

and snow cover in Greenland is in peril Guess thats what happens when two extremes take place with a toasty N. Atlantic.

[SVT450R]

NASA Rover to Explore… Greenland

http://news.yahoo.com/nasa-rover-explore-greenland-170540043.html

 

NASA's newest rover won't be exploring another planet, but will take a look at part of our own. Named Grover (short for Goddard Remotely Operated Vehicle for Exploration and Research), the rover will explore Greenland's ice sheets to better understand how they form, and how quickly they may be melting.

The device is solar-powered and semi-autonomous, and will embark on its first mission beginning tomorrow (May 3), and continuing until June 8. It was developed from 2010-2011 by teams of students in summer engineering boot camps at Goddard Space Flight Center in Maryland, according to a release from NASA.

The 6-foot-tall, 800-pound rover is equipped with ground-penetrating radar that will send "radio wave pulses into the ice sheet, and the waves bounce off buried features, informing researchers about the characteristics of the snow and ice layers," according to the NASA statement. [Video: Grover the Rover to Explore Greenland Ice Sheet]

At first Grover will operate near the National Science Foundation's Summit Camp, located at the apex of Greenland's ice sheet. Once it appears the rover is functioning properly, it will roam more widely and be controlled via satellite. Since the Arctic sun shines 24 hours a day during the summer, the solar-powered rover will be able to operate continuously, NASA said.

 

"We think it's really powerful," Gabriel Trisca, a Boise State master's degree student who developed Grover's software, said in the NASA statement. "The fact is the robot could be anywhere in the world and we'll be able to control it from anywhere."

Grover should shed light on Greenland's snow accumulation. Researchers can compare annual accumulation to the amount of ice lost to the sea each year to find out how much mass is being lost to melting, and how much Greenland's ice is contributing to sea level rise.

Greenland's ice sheets contain a vast store of freshwater that could affect global sea levels, and more and more ice is melting. In fact, Greenland's ice loss is accelerating by about 22 gigatons (22 cubic kilometers) of ice each year, according to a 2012 study.

Last summer, satellite images showed that about 40 percent of the ice sheet had thawed near the surface on July 8; only four days later, images showed a dramatic increase in melting with thawing across 97 percent of the ice sheet surface.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Jason Box has begun blogging again for the up coming 2013 melt season.

 

http://www.meltfactor.org/blog/?p=860

 

 

At least at this juncture it seems the big surplus of snow that was talked about is only in the Northern 1/4th of Greenland if at all.

 

Greenland “snow drought” makes big 2013 melt more likely

A friend in Greenland’s capital Nuuk reported (with a frown) that the backcountry skiing this year was poor due to a “snow drought”.

 

 

 

 

 

Figure 1. Western ice sheet snowfall totals are 30%-70% of normal. Brown areas have less than ‘normal’ precipitation. Blue/purple areas are anomalously ‘wet’. The precipitation anomalies are calculated from ‘re-analyses’ data after Kalnay et al. (1996).

Multiple melt factors combine to increase the odds of more melt water runoff from the ice sheet during the 2013 melt season:

1. less ‘cold content’ of snow to melt away (ablate) for a given energy input before bare ice is exposed;
2. a longer period of exposed darker bare ice, in this case weeks earlier bare ice exposure is likely unless a big snow dump before or during the coming warm season;
3. Less snow leads to a smaller refreezing capacity in the lower accumulation area. Thanks Robert Fausto of GEUS for reminding me of this one.
4. a possible higher concentration of light absorbing impurities per unit volume of snow, assuming that the impurities are deposited whether or not it snows.

 

 

 

 

 

This pattern results from a persistent atmospheric anomaly, blocking cold air transport southward along west Greenland, producing relatively warm temperatures there while northwestern Europe has had a cold winter (Figure 2).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Figure 2. The data after Kalnay et al. (1996) indicate tendencies toward offshore flow over western Greenland, opposite for what is needed to produce normal snowfall. 

The precipitation anomaly is manifesting in abnormally low land and ice sheet reflectivity (albedo) (Figure 3).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Figure 3. April 2013 surface albedo (a.k.a. reflectivity) anomaly. Substantially lower albedo anomalies on land are due to the dearth of snow revealing a much darker underlying tundra. The red areas across the northern 1/3 of Greenland are uncertain due to low solar illumination angles.

Low snowfall anomalies precondition Greenland ice for enhanced melt (Mote, 2003; Box et al. 2005; 2012), especially for the western ice sheet where the snowfall amounts are less than over the east.

From 20 March – 20 April, the snow drought drove ice sheet reflectivity well below values in 13 years of (NASA MODIS sensor) satellite observations since 2000 (Figure 4). Negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has promoted Greenland heating, melting and snow drought for now 6 summers in a row (Tedesco et al. 2013; Fettweis et al. 2013). Negative late winter NAO packs a similar punch. Negative NAO has prevailed much of the past decade and is largely to blame for Greenland’s astonishing melt increase. Whether negative NAO is promoted by an earlier loss of snow on land and declining Arctic sea ice area is something I’ve been wondering about.

 

 

 

 

 

Figure 4. Greenland ice sheet (land excluded) reflectivity or albedo updated after Box et al. (2012).

Then the weather flipped and ice sheet reflectivity rebounded toward normal values in the latest 10 days (Figure 4). Ice sheet reflectivity and accumulated precipitation remains lower than average for the year to date through 1 May (not shown), it therefore remains more likely than not that we’ll see a big melt in 2013.

 

 

[PottercountyWXobserver]

Ultimately I believe the severity of this years melt is going to come down to if we see our first +NAO summer in quite some time. The NAO looks to continue on its +NAO path as of now, but its tough to judge right now if it will stay that way for June-September.

[SVT450R]

The NAO does exhibit multidecadal variability in both postive and negative phases where you can have a time frame over a decade or longer average out on the postive or negative phase.  We are currently in a -NAO regime at this time.

[PottercountyWXobserver]

The NAO does exhibit multidecadal variability in both postive and negative phases where you can have a time frame over a decade or longer average out on the postive or negative phase. We are currently in a -NAO regime at this time.

What are you implying? Regardless of the multidecadal variability,the underlying trend has been for more extreme melting seasons.

[ORH_wxman]

What are you implying? Regardless of the multidecadal variability,the underlying trend has been for more extreme melting seasons.

 

 

He's implying that multi-decadal NAO cycles can affect the climate of Greenland.

[PottercountyWXobserver]

He's implying that multi-decadal NAO cycles can affect the climate of Greenland.

That they do, but the cycles themselves should average out to neutral with no overall positive trends in warming. I have a feeling they were implying that eventually a +NAO cycle will return things to normal, and it will NOT.

[TerryM]

I think the timing of the NAO cycle is being ignored. Clear skies during high insolation season followed by cloudy skies that won't let the heat out is the worst possible combination over the course of one year.

 

Dr Box's albedo charts should be interesting this year - hope he's back to regular updates.

 

Terry

[ORH_wxman]

That they do, but the cycles themselves should average out to neutral with no overall positive trends in warming. I have a feeling they were implying that eventually a +NAO cycle will return things to normal, and it will NOT.

 

 

A lot of +NAOs would likely cool Greenland back down from levels they have experienced recently, but likely warmer than the last period in the 70s/80s/early 90s with the underlying anthropogenic trend.

 

Greenland temps are more affected by the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation than the NAO when it comes to natural factors...at least going by the historical record.  

[SVT450R]

That they do, but the cycles themselves should average out to neutral with no overall positive trends in warming. I have a feeling they were implying that eventually a +NAO cycle will return things to normal, and it will NOT.

 

Take this Quote that Friv posted above for example.  No i don't think we will go back to normal but i would go out on a lib and say we could see a slow down in melting.

 

From 20 March – 20 April, the snow drought drove ice sheet reflectivity well below values in 13 years of (NASA MODIS sensor) satellite observations since 2000 (Figure 4). Negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has promoted Greenland heating, melting and snow drought for now 6 summers in a row (Tedesco et al. 2013; Fettweis et al. 2013). Negative late winter NAO packs a similar punch. Negative NAO has prevailed much of the past decade and is largely to blame for Greenland’s astonishing melt increase. Whether negative NAO is promoted by an earlier loss of snow on land and declining Arctic sea ice area is something I’ve been wondering about.