Greenland 2012

[PhillipS]

This thread is for discussion of topics relating to Greenland. There have been a number of recent comments about Greenland and I thought it might be useful to gather them into one thread instead of continuing to clutter up the arctic sea ice and global temperature threads.

Several recent posts to consider:

• The albedo change to the Greenland ice sheet - what is causing it and what will its consequences be? Have similar albedo changes been observed elsewhere (mountain glaciers? Antarctica?) Just before the Larsen B ice shelf disintegrated in 2002 its albedo changed due to myriad small melt ponds on its surface. Related melt processes or just coincidence?
  
• The 2012 melt season - speaking for myself, I found the video of the Watson river in raging flood to be an eyeopener. Does anyone know whether that meltwater came off the top of the ice sheet or out from under the ice sheet? If it is running off the top of the ice sheet then I would assume that the ice is melting due to warm temps and long days of sunshine. But if the meltwater is flowing out from beneath the ice sheet I would think that is more serious because the moulins and meltwater channels weaken the structural integrity of the ice sheet. Comments?
  
• On a related note, will 2012 set a record for Greenland melting?
  
• Major calving event at the Petermann glacier - The photos of the calving event show that the roughly 200 km2 berg that calved off last week has moved fairly quickly down the fjord towards the strait. What's making it move? The same thing occred after the larger calving event in 2010. Tidal forces? Or is there a current of meltwater flowing out from under the Petermann glacier?
  

This is a technical thread so please provide links when you can.

[PhillipS]

One more topic of interest which I forgot to put on the OP list - dark particles. I believe that everyone is in agreement that dark particles of black carbon, ash, dust, etc on the surface of the Greenland ice accelerates melting because it lowers the albedo and is a pretty effect black body for absorbing radiation.

But several posters on this and other forums have claimed the net effect is small because the dark particles are equally good emitters of radiation. This assertion is where I need some help from the physics-knowledgeable readers.

In dry conditions I feel that there may be some truth to the assertion that dark particles both absorb and emit radiation well so the net warming effect is small. Taking a single particle as an example, sunlight of all wavelengths hits the particle and is absorbed, the particle warms up in response, and the particle emits IR at the wavelength corresponding to its temperature. Only the energy that is conducted to the underlying surface acts as a warming force. Am I close, so far?

The problem I have is that in the situation of dark particles on ice the conditions aren't dry. When a particle warms to above 0 C it creates a microscopic meltpool and gets covered by a thin layer of meltwater - and that water is opaque to IR wavelengths. Even a very thin film of water is opaque to long wave radiation. Taking our single particle example again, the full spectrum sunlight falls on the particle and warms it, the particle emits IR as in the first example, but the IR is absorbed by the overlying film of water, warming it instead of reaching the atmosphere. Both the energy conducted to the underlying ice and the energy absorbed by the blocked IR emission act to warm the ice and its meltwater.

Comments?

[TerryM]

Great topic!!

I believe the water at Watson River was subsurface, didn't someone on site mention that the ice above had subsided a meter or two? Another thing I've been wondering about is whether a subsurface water pulse could have been one of the reasons for the calving event at Petermann before the fast ice was gone and between spring tides.

Last question relates to Summit temps and the darkening of Greenland's radar image. It the darkening was due to surface melting then we should see a brightening shortly as the max temp dropped to -7C yesterday.

http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ind=04416&ano=2012&mes=7&day=19&hora=12&min=0&ndays=30

Terry

[bluewave]

Great idea to put all the Greenland discussion in one thread.

Here are several links that discuss the recent Greenland conditions:

http://www.meltfactor.org/blog/

http://twitter.com/climate_ice/

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2156

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/archive.html?year=2012&month=05

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1757

[TerryM]

A crack has appeared at the mouth of Independence Fjord that may take a jumble of MYI that packed in their this winter. The fjord opened up last year for the first time since 2002, and I think it's going to do it again.

The fast ice south of the area almost broke loose last year - someone claimed that it is actually grounded in a shallow area centered in the gyre that contributes to the NOW polynya, It will be interesting to see if this survives.

MODIS r03c03 shows Independence Fjord & the area just to the south shows the fast ice I'm referring to (it's easier to picture it at Arctic.io).

Earlier this month Polarstern cruised near the area, but had problems with the anomalous MYI they encountered flowing through Fram.

http://www.awi.de/en/infrastructure/ships/polarstern/weekly_reports/all_expeditions/ark_xxvii/ark_xxvii1/

Terry

[The_Global_Warmer]

[winterymix]

This is a technical thread so please provide links when you can.

This is a tricky subject to research properly. I went to Google, the NASA site and www.scirus.com

and found nothing useful. Since you started this thread, perhaps you can cite links that are appropriate

re: scientific integrity.

My quick research suggests that albedo changes are worrisome and that Greenland has lost a significant ice mass.

I've noticed that the west flank of Greenland has rapid melting and that the melt water is warmish. Regarding the large glacier calving, detractors and political zealots will point to 1962 when a much large glacier calved.

My points are:

1. Something is up with Greenland but one cannot say for sure [at this time] what the long term impact could be.

2. This process seems consistent with overall warming at high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere.

3. Most scientists now agree that Mankind's burgeoning carbon foot print is boosting atmospheric CO2 as

well as atmospheric particulate matter; this second item possibly relating to albedo changes in Greenland.

4. Ocean sea levels are slowly rising and ocean pH is slowly lowering. Globally, ocean heat is increasing.

5. Drought is increasing in the US.

6. What we, as a group here in Americanwx need most is a list of generally agreed upon sources of scientific data and analysis.

7. Scoffers seem to offer commentary from blogs, scientific lone wolfs, industry whores, political spinsters along with taunts of

"You like Al Gore" and the ever popular, "The data is manipulated".

[TerryM]

winterymix

Thule and Nord have been doing weather/climate research for quite a while & with Canada and Norway arguing over who owns Han Island I think both countries have done bunches of observations in the area. Dr.Muenchow seem to spend an inordinate amount of time in Nares Strait,

http://icyseas.org/2012/06/19/nares-strait-ice-bridge-and-arctic-ice-thickness-change/

and is probably the 'go to guy' for there.

The US should have plenty of data from Summit & DMI has records going way back.

The specific area I've found very little on is the King Christian IV Glacier. When not cloud covered it shows melt ponds and a darkened albedo unusual for it's elevation. It probably isn't important to the big picture, but an interesting feature non the less.

BTW - The radar images are showing bright reflections for most of central and northern Greenland again, so the darker tones could well have been a result of surface melting.

Terry

[PhillipS]

Friv - thanks for posting these charts. They helped me understand better the magnitude of Greenland's albedo change, and that it is not a new problem but has been worsening for years. .

I hate to use the word 'alarming' because that's a hot-button for the pseudo-skeptics - but seeing that Greenland's lower elevations have gone from absorbing about 40% of the incident energy to absorbing over 50% is alarming. Especially when I see that the change took place over only about twelve years.

Equally alarming are the changes taking place at the top of Greenland's ice sheet. For years we've been told platitudes like "Don't worry about Greenland - the summit of the ice sheet never gets warm enough to melt.". Well, that appears to be changing. If above freezing temps and low albedo become a summer time standard we'll see melting over the entire ice sheet.

I noticed that the greatest albedo change appears to be in the 200 m - 2500 m altitude band where the albedo has dropped from about 0.81 in 2000 to 0.73 today. I wondered if part of the albedo chage could be attributed to ice algae. Glacial ice algae are found throughout polar regions but only 'bloom' when the conditions are right - temps near melting so that there is intersticial water present, sufficient dust or other matter to provide nutrients, and ample sunshine. This may be one of the first years for all of the conditions to be met over large areas.

Here is a paper on Greenland ice algae that may be relevant - Hall et al, Comparison of in situ and satellite-derived reflectances of Forbindels Glacier, Greenland. Unfortunately it is paywalled so I can only read the abstract but google gave this teaser "The fim overlying the glacier ice appeared quite homogeneous except that the snow surface was hummocky with some red algae present . . .". If anybody knows where it is freely available I'd love to read it.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Friv - thanks for posting these charts. They helped me understand better the magnitude of Greenland's albedo change, and that it is not a new problem but has been worsening for years. .

I hate to use the word 'alarming' because that's a hot-button for the pseudo-skeptics - but seeing that Greenland's lower elevations have gone from absorbing about 40% of the incident energy to absorbing over 50% is alarming. Especially when I see that the change took place over only about twelve years.

Equally alarming are the changes taking place at the top of Greenland's ice sheet. For years we've been told platitudes like "Don't worry about Greenland - the summit of the ice sheet never gets warm enough to melt.". Well, that appears to be changing. If above freezing temps and low albedo become a summer time standard we'll see melting over the entire ice sheet.

I noticed that the greatest albedo change appears to be in the 200 m - 2500 m altitude band where the albedo has dropped from about 0.81 in 2000 to 0.73 today. I wondered if part of the albedo chage could be attributed to ice algae. Glacial ice algae are found throughout polar regions but only 'bloom' when the conditions are right - temps near melting so that there is intersticial water present, sufficient dust or other matter to provide nutrients, and ample sunshine. This may be one of the first years for all of the conditions to be met over large areas.

Here is a paper on Greenland ice algae that may be relevant - Hall et al, Comparison of in situ and satellite-derived reflectances of Forbindels Glacier, Greenland. Unfortunately it is paywalled so I can only read the abstract but google gave this teaser "The fim overlying the glacier ice appeared quite homogeneous except that the snow surface was hummocky with some red algae present . . .". If anybody knows where it is freely available I'd love to read it.

I believe if you look really close you can see some of this algea on the Modis images.

[PhillipS]

I believe if you look really close you can see some of this algea on the Modis images.

Here is a photo of snow algae, in this case from Antarctica [source]

And if you don't like red then you can also have green [source]

I thiink we'll start seeing all sorts of unexpected phenomena as AGW increases. But I don't think that there will be much good news in the mix.

[dabize]

Beats jellyfish......wonder what their albedo is.

[TerryM]

The crack mentioned earlier at the mouth of Independence Fjord has extended down to Flade Isblink and pretty well assures that we'll have open water again this year. My understanding is that this typically opens on a decadal cycle so the back to back loss of fast ice may be unusual.

MODIS r03c03 shows a huge difference between this year and last & it's easy to differentiate between the FYI and the MYI still in place between and near the islands and Flade Isblink.

It'll be interesting to see how much of the MYI is left after this season.

Terry

[TerryM]

Something new (at least to me) is a weekly Radarsat image of northwest Greenland.

http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/IPYMMR1EA/20120716000000_IPYMMR1EA_0006546413.gif

I've regularly checked the Canadian Ice Service in the past, but must have missed this area.

Terry

[TerryM]

Meltfactor ran out of room for the 2000-2500 graph - and they may be in trouble with the 2500-3200 next.

http://www.meltfactor.org/blog/?p=514

Albedo just ain't what it used to be.

Terry

[The_Global_Warmer]

Meltfactor ran out of room for the 2000-2500 graph - and they may be in trouble with the 2500-3200 next.

http://www.meltfactor.org/blog/?p=514

Albedo just ain't what it used to be.

Terry

Terry, this is horribly bad. my heart wishes this was a wild anomaly, but it's clear we didn't properly account for how fast Greenland's top reflective layer going up to the 2500-3000M mark was going melt off and allow lower albedo from dirty older ice and melt water.

Even without thermal expansion this season could end up dumping 1000 GT of ice loss into the ocean maybe more, Sea Level Rise will respond.

If the same dirty layer starts to show up between 1500-3200M over the next decade, then what? 5000 GT ice loss a year?

This is ridiculous.

[TerryM]

Today's big breaks can be seen at r03c03 south of the NEW Polynia. Last year the fast ice took a heavy hit. This year the MYI extending out into the Fram Strait could all go.

Terry

[Jonger]

Here is a photo of snow algae, in this case from Antarctica [source]

And if you don't like red then you can also have green [source]

I thiink we'll start seeing all sorts of unexpected phenomena as AGW increases. But I don't think that there will be much good news in the mix.

And we know this is a new phenomenon how?

[Snow_Miser]

Anthony watts had an interesting proposal that black carbon could be responsible for the albedo decline in Greenland this past year. Anyone have any thoughts on this proposition?

[TerryM]

Anthony watts had an interesting proposal that black carbon could be responsible for the albedo decline in Greenland this past year. Anyone have any thoughts on this proposition?

Have you followed Dr. Box at

http://www.meltfactor.org/blog/?p=514

His explanation, that heating has lowered precipitation and altered the snow crystals while enhanced melting has removed the winters snow seems to fit the time frame better. The feedback mechanism involved will have to be factored in to any future prognostications of Greenland melt rate & sea level rise.

Black soot shouldn't follow the seasons year after year.

Terry

[PhillipS]

And we know this is a new phenomenon how?

The presence of ice algae and snow algae isn't new, one of the papers I came across was from the 1870s, but its extent has been limited to areas where the ice is close to melting, close enough that there is liquid water between the grains of ice near the surface. The algae won't flourish in areas that are frozen hard, but the spores would survive and lie dormant for many years.

My suggestion (and it was only a suggestion) is that ice algae may be one of the factors contributing to the unprecedented albedo change being observed on Greenland this summer. If you look at the charts that have been posted, you'll see that the albedo has changed at all altitude of the ice sheet, but that the region from 2000 - 2500 meters has had the greatest amount of change. If the only culprits were black carbon, or dust, what process would favor that altitude band over others higher and lower on the ice sheet? I couldn't think of any. But if the 2000 - 2500 band was experiencing a rare warm spell then those dormant spores could be growing into an algal bloom. Portions of the ice sheet lower than 2000 meters regularly have the needed conditions so 2012 isn't an outlier, and the ice sheet above 2500 meters may still be too cold for the ice algae to flourish.

But as I said above, this is just my suggestion and was offered to stimulate discussion of the spectrum of melt processes.

[Jonger]

Anthony watts had an interesting proposal that black carbon could be responsible for the albedo decline in Greenland this past year. Anyone have any thoughts on this proposition?

There could be a highly respected top climate scientist being held hostage in Anthony watts basement, feeding him info... But since it came out of Watts mouth, it will be dismissed.

[PhillipS]

There could be a highly respected top climate scientist being held hostage in Anthony watts basement, feeding him info... But since it came out of Watts mouth, it will be dismissed.

I can believe your theory that Watts keeps hostages in his basement - wouldn't surprise me in the least - but nobody is

ignoring his point about black carbon, it's just not a new insight. If you follow the links in his blog post to meltfactor.org you'll see that scientists have been studying the matter for a long time.

Black carbon, soot from wildfires, dust, volcanic ash - essentially anything dark on the surface of the ice sheet - will lower the albedo to some degree. Here is a pic from 2005 of the Greenland ice sheet at about 300 meters:

12 August 2005, 8 PM local time, I took this photo from a helicopter flying over the ice sheet surface at ~1500 feet altitude. This is how much darker the Greenland ablation area is than a fresh snow surface that blankets it in wintertime. Along much of the southwestern ice sheet at the lowest 1000 m in elevation, impurities concentrate near the surface and produce this dark surface. Not all of the ice sheet is this dark, only the lower ~1/3 of the elevation profile of the ice sheet is. However, as melting increases on the ice sheet, so does the area exposed that is this dark.

But black carbon alone doesn't explain the changes in albedo and melt season from previous years. What I didn't see Watts discuss is that the Arctic is warmer - in large part due to AGW. That's the elephant in the room he doesn't wish to acknowledge.

[TerryM]

There could be a highly respected top climate scientist being held hostage in Anthony watts basement, feeding him info... But since it came out of Watts mouth, it will be dismissed.

I didn't think that was the orifice that Watts usually pulled his data from ;>)

I lived in the desert for some time and there what happens there is that the lighter sand and clay particles are blown away until something more substantial is reached. Over time the surface is interlocked pebbles and stones that the winds haven't dislodged - desert pavement.

Bikers, off road vehicles, even careless hikers disturb the surface and dust storms begin to be a problem (check out Phoenix). As I understand it a similar process takes place on the ice, except instead of wind blowing the snow away, it just melts. My guess is that the dark layer is actually quite thin, with lots of white stuff just under the surface.

Terry

[bluewave]

This guy got a little too close for comfort, but he got a great video.

[WeatherRusty]

There could be a highly respected top climate scientist being held hostage in Anthony watts basement, feeding him info... But since it came out of Watts mouth, it will be dismissed.

Watt's attack machine does not ingratiate him with the mainstream science community....so you're right, he has little credibility.

He asks a reasonable question with regard to the possibility of black carbon however. It's not like the IPCC has ignored the radiative forcing produced by black carbon, including that deposited on high latitude ice due to air traffic passing over.

[Vergent]

I didn't think that was the orifice that Watts usually pulled his data from ;>)

I lived in the desert for some time and there what happens there is that the lighter sand and clay particles are blown away until something more substantial is reached. Over time the surface is interlocked pebbles and stones that the winds haven't dislodged - desert pavement.

Bikers, off road vehicles, even careless hikers disturb the surface and dust storms begin to be a problem (check out Phoenix). As I understand it a similar process takes place on the ice, except instead of wind blowing the snow away, it just melts. My guess is that the dark layer is actually quite thin, with lots of white stuff just under the surface.

Terry

I am quite familiar with black carbon on ice. I grew up in a steel-mill town. They would plow up a huge pile of snow in the parking lot of the shopping plaza. The snow would get brownish with carbon. In the spring when it started melting, the surface would turn black, and stay black till the ice was gone. It would look like that picture from Greenland. There is a lot of black carbon in trapped in the ice naturally(Forrest fires), and a lot from man. There is nothing we can do to get it out. When enough ice melts it will cover the surface. It does not wash off with the melt water.

[winterymix]

This guy got a little too close for comfort, but he got a great video.

Thanks, I loved it. Wouldn't mind being there and making it back home.

[The_Global_Warmer]

This is through march. The yearly peak is during August-September of the year. It's going to be interesting to see how Greenland/EL Nino effect the sea level rise.

[TerryM]

Friv

Something you may have missed from Dr Box at meltfactor

Thanks to Chris Biscan via Neven’s

Arctic Sea Ice Blog for identifying an accessible source of Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) data.

another quote

In my recently accepted albedo paper (

Box et al. 2012, ACCEPTED VERSION), see abstract, the statement: “it is reasonable to expect 100% melt area over the ice sheet within another similar decade of warming.” may be coming true already.

http://www.meltfactor.org/blog/?p=556

Terry