Buckeye05 Posted July 19, 2012 Share Posted July 19, 2012 So far July has been very quiet. However I noticed that the SPC has put outlook areas on the day 4-8. I haven't looked at the models yet. Quite a change from "potential too low". Let's see what happens. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 19, 2012 Share Posted July 19, 2012 First time I recall seeing a singular D8 outlook... Also, am in Manitoba currently and in a MDT risk of svr storms from the PSPC. Winds are backed SSE to SE currently and they mention Southern and Central Manitoba having the highest tornado threat today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 20, 2012 Share Posted July 20, 2012 COD crew (and others) ended up with a nice tor in SK on Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted July 20, 2012 Author Share Posted July 20, 2012 4-8 days dropped. I was skeptical of outlook areas that far out with so much uncertainty anyway, so no huge surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 Discrete supercell has developed moving towards the Regina, Saskatchewan metro with a severe thunderstorm warning on it right now. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR: R.M. OF HILLSBOROUGH INCLUDING CRESTWYND AND OLD WIVES LAKE R.M. OF BAILDON INCLUDING BRIERCREST R.M. OF LAKE JOHNSON INCLUDING MOSSBANK AND ARDILL R.M. OF TERRELL INCLUDING SPRING VALLEY AND CARDROSS. AT 3:40 PM ENVIRONMENT CANADA METEOROLOGISTS ARE TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 90 KM/HOUR. THIS STORM IS LOCATED 10 KILOMETRES NORTHEAST OF MOSSBANK MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 KM/HOUR. http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=XBE&type=C0R Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MnWeatherman Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Next weekend (8/3/12-8/512) looks very interesting for the northern plains. Having seen a shortwave like that for what seems like an eternity. I realize its early, but I'm staying optimistic on this one. All models are now showing this, with the GFS being the most aggressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Next weekend (8/3/12-8/512) looks very interesting for the northern plains. Having seen a shortwave like that for what seems like an eternity. I realize its early, but I'm staying optimistic on this one. All models are now showing this, with the GFS being the most aggressive. I too just started looking at this shortwave. I am really hoping for this one, as I will be moved into Grand Forks, ND by August 1st. We have to get our furniture delivered the morning of the 3rd, but Saturday the 4th looks very promising in the eastern Dakotas. I could use getting my first ND tornado the weekend after I move there. Shear looks great, moisture looks fantastic, instability looks great... but, its 200+ hours out still. Looking forward to seeing how it evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted July 27, 2012 Author Share Posted July 27, 2012 What I like the most is that the best upper level support syncs up well with the best CAPE and moisture. I can't count how many Northern Plains setups got us all excited despite the best wind/shear parameters being post-frontal. Can't count on it staying as nice as it looks now though by any means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 What I like the most is that the best upper level support syncs up well with the best CAPE and moisture. I can't count how many Northern Plains setups got us all excited despite the best wind/shear parameters being post-frontal. Can't count on it staying as nice as it looks now though by any means. Agreed.... I refuse to get overly excited until we are a couple days out and everything is in phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 Still some real potential now that we're all the way within 200 hours for the system. Eastern ND/SD looks the best for Friday, 8/3 with the threat shifting into MN/IA/IL areas possibly on Saturday. Still watching it closely as the GFS is still putting it out there... just moving it along faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted July 28, 2012 Author Share Posted July 28, 2012 Latest run not looking as promising IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 Haven't looked at the 18z run, but the 12z run looked pretty potent still, just a day quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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