MN Transplant Posted July 19, 2012 Share Posted July 19, 2012 01 88 70 Normal temp 79.0 Actual temp 99 77 88.0 Departure 9.0 02 88 70 Normal temp 79.0 Actual temp 95 79 87.0 Departure 8.0 03 88 70 Normal temp 79.0 Actual temp 98 75 86.5 Departure 7.5 04 88 71 Normal temp 79.5 Actual temp 99 75 87.0 Departure 7.5 05 88 71 Normal temp 79.5 Actual temp 100 80 90.0 Departure 10.5 06 88 71 Normal temp 79.5 Actual temp 100 81 90.5 Departure 11.0 07 89 71 Normal temp 80.0 Actual temp 105 82 93.5 Departure 13.5 08 89 71 Normal temp 80.0 Actual temp 102 77 89.5 Departure 9.5 09 89 71 Normal temp 80.0 Actual temp 87 74 80.5 Departure 0.5 10 89 71 Normal temp 80.0 Actual temp 90 72 81.0 Departure 1.0 11 89 71 Normal temp 80.0 Actual temp 89 73 81.0 Departure 1.0 12 89 71 Normal temp 80.0 Actual temp 88 72 80.0 Departure 0.0 13 89 71 Normal temp 80.0 Actual temp 90 75 82.5 Departure 2.5 14 89 71 Normal temp 80.0 Actual temp 88 71 79.5 Departure -0.5 15 89 71 Normal temp 80.0 Actual temp 96 76 86.0 Departure 6.0 16 89 71 Normal temp 80.0 Actual temp 96 76 86.0 Departure 6.0 17 89 71 Normal temp 80.0 Actual temp 100 77 88.5 Departure 8.5 18 89 71 Normal temp 80.0 Actual temp 101 80 90.5 Departure 10.5 19 89 71 Normal temp 80.0 Actual temp 95 75 85.0 Departure 5.0 20 89 71 Normal temp 80.0 Actual temp 82 71 76.5 Departure -3.5 21 89 71 Normal temp 80.0 Actual temp 71 67 69.0 Departure -11.0 22 89 71 Normal temp 80.0 Actual temp 82 70 76.0 Departure -4.0 23 88 71 Normal temp 79.5 Actual temp 90 75 82.5 Departure 3.0 24 88 71 Normal temp 79.5 Actual temp 93 74 83.5 Departure 4.0 25 88 71 Normal temp 79.5 Actual temp 89 72 80.5 Departure 1.0 26 88 71 Normal temp 79.5 Actual temp 100 74 87.0 Departure 7.5 27 88 71 Normal temp 79.5 Actual temp 95 77 86.0 Departure 6.5 28 88 71 Normal temp 79.5 Actual temp 97 74 85.5 Departure 6.0 29 88 71 Normal temp 79.5 Actual temp 90 72 81.0 Departure 1.5 30 88 71 Normal temp 79.5 Actual temp 89 75 82.0 Departure 2.5 31 88 71 Normal temp 79.5 Actual temp 90 74 82.0 Departure 2.5 Monthly average 93.1 74.9 84.0 Record monthly temperature 84.5 Temps needed to tie record (rest of month) xxx Temps needed for 2nd warmest July xxx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted July 19, 2012 Share Posted July 19, 2012 What the the past 3 july temps tell us is that normal is not normal anymore! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted July 19, 2012 Share Posted July 19, 2012 Nice to see the average starting to decrease in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted July 19, 2012 Share Posted July 19, 2012 normal is not normal anymore! Just go ahead and put this in your signature so it's added to every post automatically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 23, 2012 Author Share Posted July 23, 2012 Updated. Need to average about a 95/75 for the last 9 days of the month. Probably not going to happen. 2nd place very much in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Updated. Need to average about a 95/75 for the last 9 days of the month. Probably not going to happen. 2nd place very much in play. I'd wager a very large amount of money that it's not going to happen. Problem is, I probably wouldn't get very good odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 25, 2012 Author Share Posted July 25, 2012 Updated. Still looking good for 2nd place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 25, 2012 Author Share Posted July 25, 2012 So 3-1-2 in 2010-2012? Awful Exactly. That is unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Exactly. That is unreal. [JB] Record lows last night in Ikachuakakwka, Siberia. So Globular worming's a hoax [/JB] [JB2] Jet blast at DCA and BWI distorting temps [/JB2] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 So 3-1-2 in 2010-2012? Awful BWI's is about to be 3-2-1 for 2010-2012, unless something unexpectedly drastic happens at the end (like another 69 high temperature on the 31st) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 27, 2012 Author Share Posted July 27, 2012 Updated. 2nd hottest July is basically clinched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 14 of the 26 days so far this month are 95+ at DCA. That is unreal. Thank goodness it hasn't been that bad out here this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 30, 2012 Author Share Posted July 30, 2012 Cruise control into 2nd place. Looking like 83.9 or so. Well above 2010's 83.1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 30, 2012 Author Share Posted July 30, 2012 Our norms are pretty silly probably. I understand norms are over 30 years and smoothed but they aren't very relevant. Almost of of July should be 90/72 with a 10-15 day period of 91/73. I think we've hit 71 or lower like 2-3 times in the last 30 days or so. Two days in July with lows below normal. River/UHI/pattern all to blame probably. Easy to say that the normals aren't relevant coming off of a trifecta of the warmest summers on record, though. Tougher to make the case that this is the new norm. I'm hoping this is just a string of suck related to the overall decadal patterns with some GW built on top. '09 wasn't that bad, and even as close as '04 was a really quite pleasant summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 even as close as '04 was a really quite pleasant summer. Newcomers to the DC area will find this fact hard to believe, but after a high of 98 was recorded at DCA on August 19, 2002, there was nearly a three-year gap of 95+ days -- the next one occurred on July 21, 2005, with a reading of 95 on the nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 Newcomers to the DC area will find this fact hard to believe, but after a high of 98 was recorded at DCA on August 19, 2002, there was nearly a three-year gap of 95+ days -- the next one occurred on July 21, 2005, with a reading of 95 on the nose. I've been here since 1997, and even I find it hard to believe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
astarck Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 I've been here since 1997, and even I find it hard to believe! This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 1, 2012 Author Share Posted August 1, 2012 Wrapup: 84.0° - 2nd warmest month on record 7 100° days - new monthly record 16/31 days at 95° or above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 awful...I also wonder if this is a temporary glitch and we can actually get summer like 2003, 2004, 2000, etc again. gotta guess it is but hell of a three years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 awful...I also wonder if this is a temporary glitch and we can actually get summer like 2003, 2004, 2000, etc again. No way. Haven't you heard? +5 is the new normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 so apparently 1981-2010 90+ day avgs are smoothed as well. how did it take me 2 years to figure that one out? im not sure i get it either. our yrly avg dropped 6 to 31?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 31 for JJA 36.4 for Year That's what I thought but NCDC says otherwise and indicates it's a smoothed norm. The perplexing thing is the old norm wasn't smoothed as far as I can tell. http://t.co/nVqNUj7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 I think that is >90 versus >=90 EDIT: yeah..that's what it is according to their descriptor file it includes 90 grthNNN = greater than or equal to NNN whole degrees Fahrenheit NNN can be 040,050,060,070,080,090,100 BUT -- NOWDATA has the numbers I/you have either way I'm not sure how we'd have lost 6 90+ in the new norms with a difference of 11 days 90+ (1971-2000 higher) over 30 yrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Smoothing on certain things is dumb IMO. Of course I don't really know much about higher level stats. If the new number is close to the median I guess it is fine. Is it higher than the median? If so I guess I am ok with it. I'm just confused now with two conflicting sets. I don't really think a hard count of days over or under a certain temp should be smoothed so id lean toward an avg. Of course the fact that they don't share their methodology makes it more problematic with smoothed norms. Ill have to look re: median. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 I think the really lean years hurt us and probably got touched less. Their methodology kind of f-ucks us. I think it is the same reason Feb 2003 and 2010 basically got tossed because we couldnt have these really freaky daily and monthly norms. Probably tho I'd hope they toss a yr with 10 as quick as one with 70. Not a huge fan of smoothing other than dailies tho I sorta understand why they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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