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[bluewave]

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[TerryM]

http://www.columbia....ClimateDice.pdf

The longer time scale is important for the United States, because of the well-known extreme heat and droughts of the 1930s. The frequency of occurrence of the three categories of hot summers in the contiguous 48 states of the United States is shown in the lower right of Figure 7. The 48 states cover less than 1.6% of the global area and thus the results are very "noisy". Despite the noise, we can discern that the trend toward hot summers in recent decades is not as pronounced in the United States as it is in hemispheric land area as a whole. Also the extreme summer heat of the 1930s, especially 1934 and 1936, is comparable to the most extreme recent years.

Summer temperature anomalies for the United States are shown in Figure 8, including maps for 1934, 1936, 2006 and 2011. The mean temperature anomalies in these four warm summers (approximately +1°C or +2°F) are practically indistinguishable, as the differences among them are smaller than the uncertainty. Year-to-year variability, which is mainly unforced weather variability, is so large for an area the size of the United States that it is difficult and perhaps unessential to find an "explanation" for either the large 1930s anomalies or the relatively slow upturn in hot anomalies during the past few decades. However, this matter warrants discussion, because, if the absence of a stronger warming in recent years is a statistical fluke, the United States may have in store a relatively rapid trend toward more extreme anomalies.

That's a great paper. It deserves a second read.

Terry

[donsutherland1]

A great paper. It is well worth reading. Its maps and illustrations of shifting probability curves provide a good picture of how the ongoing warming of the earth's climate is playing out.

[Conclue]

A great paper. It is well worth reading. Its maps and illustrations of shifting probability curves provide a good picture of how the ongoing warming of the earth's climate is playing out.

I actually really did enjoy reading that and it was intersting to see how the anomalies are shifting. It's haunting to know that Hansens projections over 20 years ago are appearing in current analysis today.

And yet we are still just a bunch of sitting ducks.

[LocoAko]

Saw this on the New York Times this morning and thought it was interesting.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/07/20/us/drought-footprint.html

[Jonger]

Saw this on the New York Times this morning and thought it was interesting.

http://www.nytimes.c...-footprint.html

I see no pattern of increased droughts from those images, it does show this particular year being a glaring anomaly though.

[donsutherland1]

According to NOAA, July 2012 is challenging July 1936 for the hottest July on record in the U.S. The story can be found here: http://www.usatoday.com/weather/news/story/2012-07-26/July-month-hot-temperature-record/56511458/1?csp=34news&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+usatoday-NewsTopStories+(News+-+Top+Stories)

The five highest mean temperatures for July are:

1. 77.43°, 1936

2. 77.26°, 2006

3. 77.01°, 2011

4. 77.00°, 1934

5. 76.91°, 1901

July 2012 will very likely have among the five highest July temperatures on record. That means the period beginning after 2005 will very likely have 3 of the 5 warmest July temperatures on record.

All too predictably, even before the month has been completed and the actual data tallied up for a final ranking, the NOAA is being attacked for promoting the "big lie."

A key argument made is:

Compare the huge region of +10 and +12 degrees in 1936 to the tiny region of +8 in 2012. The area of +10 was probably two hundred times larger in 1936. There is no +12 in 2012. Every band +2 or above was much larger in 1936.

A map from the July 1936 edition of The Monthly Weather Review is posted as proof. However, the argument falls apart once one looks more closely at the details:

1. The most recent base period that preceded 1936 and 2012 were as follows, as those base periods defined the "normal" against which the maps were based: The 1901-1930 base mean temperature for July was 73.79° vs. 74.76° for the 1981-2010 base period. The current base period against which July 2012 is being measured is almost a full degree warmer than the base period on which the MWR maps were based.

2. During July 1936, Maine saw much below normal temperatures (10th coldest July on record). Massachusetts (32nd), New Hampshire (23rd), Rhode Island (31st), Texas (38th), and Vermont (24th) all had among their 40 coldest temperatures on record for July. Arizona, California, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, and Washington had near normal temperatures. Though July 24, a much smaller area of the U.S. had experienced normal and below normal readings.

Areal coverage matters. For example, let's say a hypothetical region is 100 square miles. In one year, a 9 square mile portion had a temperature of 10° above normal, while the rest saw readings 6.5° above normal. In another year, the entire area was 7° above normal. The latter would be warmer (7.0° above normal vs. 6.815° above normal).

[SVT450R]

Just a comparison of the drought conditions going on this year which isn't as severe as 1934.

[donsutherland1]

Just a comparison of the drought conditions going on this year which isn't as severe as 1934.

Thanks for posting the comparison. The 1934 drought was truly exceptional. Hopefully, the current drought won't approach the magnitude of that drought.

[SVT450R]

Thanks for posting the comparison. The 1934 drought was truly exceptional. Hopefully, the current drought won't approach the magnitude of that drought.

Yea hopefully we will see a turnaround like we did in Texas this past fall and put a dent into the drought conditions going on.