CoastalWx Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 The SREFs are still east, but some of them have no clue. WV is a little concerning, nice little low developing there. I'm starting to think about rain coming closer. These lows suck, because you are at the mercy of convergence and mini deformation rains close to the low. Unlike winter storms, there isn't thermal advection processes to really throw back precip so you are at the mercy of the low track. Not an easy call, and something that came almost out of nowhere. If the GFS shifts a little west, then it may be time to think about Cask N' Flagon. GFS went west. Part of me still doesn't want to bite, but I think the trend is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Just saw the ec op vs ens QPF for tomorrow night...ens are well west of the op. It was probably a dumb idea tonight for me to get tix to tomorrow night's game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Regarding the inversion and undercast yesterday in NNE... Maybe a MET could explain this better, but this is around 10am and the inversion is just starting to break. These "convective"-like blobs of clouds would rise like bubbles off the cloud surface and at first, they wouldn't get far before they would "pop" and disappear. As time went on they would get farther and farther off the ground before dissipating... eventually reaching quite high in the sky. It was like watching hot-air balloons launching off the inversion surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Was expecting to awake to overcast skies..........instead beautiful cobalt blue with a delightful breeze, have a great day!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 I would guess that with the mixing finally getting strong enough to dissipate the undercast that saturated parcels were able to rise just enough above the top of the deck before coming to a halt and sinking back down. As the sfc heating increased, the mixing height increases and you're able to sustain the Cu formation higher up with slightly more buoyant parcels. That's my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Regarding the inversion and undercast yesterday in NNE... Maybe a MET could explain this better, but this is around 10am and the inversion is just starting to break. These "convective"-like blobs of clouds would rise like bubbles off the cloud surface and at first, they wouldn't get far before they would "pop" and disappear. As time went on they would get farther and farther off the ground before dissipating... eventually reaching quite high in the sky. It was like watching hot-air balloons launching off the inversion surface. Neat. This sounds like it would have made a cool time lapse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 I would guess that with the mixing finally getting strong enough to dissipate the undercast that saturated parcels were able to rise just enough above the top of the deck before coming to a halt and sinking back down. As the sfc heating increased, the mixing height increases and you're able to sustain the Cu formation higher up with slightly more buoyant parcels. That's my guess. Was the nam on crack yesterday regarding the hybrid I just saw its actually futher east now than the gfs........hopefully the sox game is dry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Looks like the 6z NAM went east, the 3z SREFs went west, the EC op is a near miss for BOS, the ens are a BOS scrape, and the GFS is still some rain for BOS. Hopefully 12z paints a clearer picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Neat. This sounds like it would have made a cool time lapse. This time lapse always reminds me how fluid the atmosphere is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Was the nam on crack yesterday regarding the hybrid I just saw its actually futher east now than the gfs........hopefully the sox game is dry! Lots of model mayhem with that. I don't mind a little -RA during the game, but I hate going to rain shortened games. It'll be my gf's first game at Fenway, but she'll be cheering on the Tigers. I like how once I got the tix, all of the models went west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Lots of model mayhem with that. I don't mind a little -RA during the game, but I hate going to rain shortened games. It'll be my gf's first game at Fenway, but she'll be cheering on the Tigers. I like how once I got the tix, all of the models went west. Yeah that's a tough call. It's a compact little system, so it probably will be a nowcast deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Pretty strong change in temps in the 4 climo areas. ORH leading the pack with still 3.1 which is quite significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Pretty strong change in temps in the 4 climo areas. ORH leading the pack with still 3.1 which is quite significant. PVD down to +2.0 leading the pack. Should go below 2 after today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 PVD down to +2.0 leading the pack. Should go below 2 after today. BOS may do the same. Didn't think that would happen 10 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Yeah that's a tough call. It's a compact little system, so it probably will be a nowcast deal. We'll have to monitor the progression of the incoming trough as well. Going to be a close call from the haves and have-nots. Honestly I don't thin anyone sees much W of a BID/TAN/PYM. ACK and CHH will likely come in with the highest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 We'll have to monitor the progression of the incoming trough as well. Going to be a close call from the haves and have-nots. Honestly I don't thin anyone sees much W of a BID/TAN/PYM. ACK and CHH will likely come in with the highest. There will be a sharp line. SPC WRF actually nails you down there. I'm still not completely buying rain to BOS, but it is possible some rain makes it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Scooter you think that rain stays east of OC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Scooter you think that rain stays east of OC? I was just looking at that. I think it will outside of a brief renegade shwr drifting off the ocean. It may stay cloudy through early aftn, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 It will be a very warm to hot weekend into early next week. Afterwards, it may be a slightly cooler, but perhaps still very warm atmosphere with thicknesses still near 570. It probably won't be until near mid month with temps overall start to cool. The details like stalled fronts with shwrs and tstms are a little too early to pick out. Obviously, that has a say in temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Phil may have a six hour visit from the Sultan this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 It will be a very warm to hot weekend into early next week. Afterwards, it may be a slightly cooler, but perhaps still very warm atmosphere with thicknesses still near 570. It probably won't be until near mid month with temps overall start to cool. The details like stalled fronts with shwrs and tstms are a little too early to pick out. Obviously, that has a say in temps. Looked like the ec ens were a little stronger with that cold fropa next Monday compared to the op. A few days of heat are fine with me as long as the pig ridge continues to stay out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Looked like the ec ens were a little stronger with that cold fropa next Monday compared to the op. A few days of heat are fine with me as long as the pig ridge continues to stay out west. Yeah it did. Still a warm week, but nothing like the Plains. The second half of August may be cooler compared to the 1st half, and not just because of climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Weenie solution on the ggem ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 The low was 63 here. It took until about 9:00 for the sun to burn through the low clouds and fog. I think some early signs of the slowly weakening sun. Yeah it did. Still a warm week, but nothing like the Plains. The second half of August may be cooler compared to the 1st half, and not just because of climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 The low was 63 here. It took until about 9:00 for the sun to burn through the low clouds and fog. I think some early signs of the slowly weakening sun. That was the low here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 The low was 63 here. It took until about 9:00 for the sun to burn through the low clouds and fog. I think some early signs of the slowly weakening sun. 55F here. 12z NAM has ticked W from 6z. Also looks like an in inverted trough hanging back into SE MA. SREF's bring the 12h 0.25 like to about PVD/BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Phil may have a six hour visit from the Sultan this evening. yeah...sultan or nothing i think. these are such a pain. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 yeah...sultan or nothing i think. these are such a pain. lol. Yea and no buoy data again out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Yea and no buoy data again out there. ginx how ridiculous is the ndbc bouy system. it really get to me...you know as i like to forecast and see how the swell's are propogating to shore.....and every other damn bouy is off line. and the message says "it will be fixed when it can be worked into the schedule" so what is the excuse that it's said that for 10 fooking months. worked into the schedule my ass....they don't care about the bouy's or they have no money or they have heads up asses. seriously now 62 for low in wakefield, ma. what does boston need today to finish + 1.9? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 GFS brings the comma head right over BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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